CNX Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary and Q&A Highlights: Tax Credits and Utica Performance in Focus

Earnings Call
Jul 25, 2025

[Management View]
CNX Resources is poised to benefit from the 45Z tax credit starting in 2025, with a potential $30 million annual impact beginning in 2026. The company maintains a one-rig drilling schedule, emphasizing capital efficiency with a ratio of $0.85 per Mcf. Utica wells have exceeded expectations, and the company is exploring long-term marketing opportunities for its RMG product.

[Outlook]
CNX anticipates sequential production declines in Q3 and Q4 2025 due to front-loaded activities, with increased activity expected in late Q4. Capital expenditures will decrease in Q3 and rise in Q4. The company is optimistic about future data center demand for its RMG product.

[Financial Performance]
CNX reported that Utica wells performed above expectations in Q2 2025, with costs below target. The company maintains a capital efficiency ratio of $0.85 per Mcf, aligning with previous guidance.

[Q&A Highlights]
Question 1: Did Apple Intelligence drive sales of the iPhone 16 series? Which features are most popular with users?
Answer: In markets where Apple Intelligence was introduced, the iPhone 16 series outperformed markets where the feature was not introduced. Users used features such as ‘Writing Tools,’ ‘Image Playground,’ and ‘Genmoji’ extensively, especially the ‘Clean Up’ feature. The ‘Clean Up’ feature received a lot of attention in Apple Store demos. Apple Intelligence is also continuing to expand language support, which is expected to further enhance user experience and demand.

Question 2: Could you detail the timing and ability to claim the 45Z tax credits?
Answer: The first year of eligibility for the 45Z tax credit is 2025, with potential cash realization in 2026. The program extends through 2029, pending reextension.

Question 3: Are there plans to grow volumes in the E&P business, and what might a maintenance program look like in 2026?
Answer: No changes in activity levels are expected for 2025. The company aims to maintain a capital efficiency ratio of $0.85 per Mcf, focusing on optimizing free cash flow per share.

Question 4: Can you provide more color on drilling and completion activity levels in the second half of 2025?
Answer: Activity will experience a lull in Q3, with a pickup in Q4. CapEx will be lighter in Q3 and increase in Q4 as new wells come online.

Question 5: How do Utica wells compare to Marcellus in terms of cost and performance?
Answer: Utica wells are performing within expectations, with costs below target. The company is focused on improving operational efficiency and cost reduction.

Question 6: When will CNX reach the $30 million run rate from 45Z, and how will RMG gas be allocated between 45Z and PA AEC credits?
Answer: The $30 million run rate is expected in 2026. RMG gas will be allocated based on eligibility, with some volumes qualifying for both credits.

Question 7: What credit price underpins the revised environmental attribute free cash flow guide of $65 million?
Answer: The guide is based on current market prices for PA tier one renewable energy credits, in the mid-twenties per megawatt-hour.

Question 8: How does the AI and energy summit factor into RMG product discussions with tech companies?
Answer: CNX is marketing RMG as a sustainable energy solution for data centers, aiming for zero-carbon profiles. Discussions are ongoing with third-party marketers and tech companies.

Question 9: What impact does in-basin demand have on CNX's long-term view of natural gas prices and hedging strategy?
Answer: Long-term, in-basin demand is seen as bullish for natural gas prices. However, the hedging strategy remains unchanged, focusing on balance sheet management.

Question 10: What contributed to the second quarter production outperformance?
Answer: The outperformance was due to strong new well results, operational execution, production efficiency gains, and base production uptime.

Question 11: How competitive is Deep Utica compared to Marcellus, and what is the consistency of Utica performance?
Answer: Current cost structures make Deep Utica competitive with Marcellus. The company expects consistent performance across its Utica field.

Question 12: How does CNX view the voluntary carbon market in relation to PA rack market or 45Z?
Answer: RMG will be sold to the market offering the highest value, with current focus on renewable energy credit markets. Voluntary pricing is expected to rival regulatory pathways long-term.

Question 13: Will Utica take more share of the program over the next few years?
Answer: Utica wells are competitive in terms of IRR, and CNX plans to balance development between Utica and Southwest PA fields.

Question 14: Is CNX waiting for in-basin demand to increase before signing long-term agreements?
Answer: CNX is in a wait-and-see mode, looking for data center connections to Natgas projects before committing to long-term agreements.

[Sentiment Analysis]
Analysts and management maintained a cautiously optimistic tone, focusing on operational efficiency and strategic opportunities. Management expressed confidence in Utica performance and future demand for RMG.

[Quarterly Comparison]
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | YoY Change |
|-------------------------|---------|---------|------------|
| Utica Well Performance | Above | On par | Improved |
| Capital Efficiency | $0.85/Mcf | $0.85/Mcf | Stable |
| Production | Decline | Increase| Seasonal |

[Risks and Concerns]
1. Regulatory uncertainties surrounding the 45Z tax credit and its final rulemaking.
2. Potential delays in realizing data center demand for RMG.
3. Market volatility affecting natural gas prices and hedging strategies.

[Final Takeaway]
CNX Resources is strategically positioned to leverage the 45Z tax credit and capitalize on Utica well performance. While production is expected to decline in the short term, the company is focused on long-term growth opportunities, particularly in sustainable energy solutions for data centers. Management remains committed to operational efficiency and cost reduction, with a cautious approach to market developments.

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