Multiple ECB Officials Dampen September Rate Hike Expectations, Emphasize Data-Driven Policy Assessment

Deep News
5 hours ago

According to multiple reports, several decision-making officials from the European Central Bank (ECB) have recently commented on the monetary policy direction for September, generally emphasizing that any decision on a rate hike will depend on key economic data released in the coming weeks. Against the backdrop of rising international crude oil prices triggered by an escalation of the Middle East situation, the ECB currently leans towards maintaining a cautious strategy of "meeting-by-meeting decisions" to avoid sending premature and clear policy signals.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel issued a statement noting that the European economy still faces high uncertainty. He stressed that by the time of the September monetary policy meeting, the ECB will have access to a significant amount of new economic data and forecasts, which will be used to reassess the inflation outlook. Banque de France Governor Emmanuel Moulin pointed out that since the ECB's last rate hike, the overall macroeconomic situation has not fundamentally changed. Regarding the recent surge in international crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, Moulin emphasized that the primary risk now lies in the potential pass-through of energy price increases to sectors like services and transportation, and the ECB will closely evaluate the scale and duration of this price shock.

Subsequent statements from several members of the ECB's Governing Council show a broad wait-and-see stance. Oesterreichische Nationalbank Governor Martin Kocher indicated that macroeconomic data such as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and inflation figures released in the coming weeks will be crucial determinants for September's policy decision. Eesti Pank Governor Ulo Kaasik noted that recent discussions about rate hikes remain purely theoretical and that subsequent decisions require further data research for support. Officials including Central Bank of Ireland Governor Gabriel Makhlouf, Croatian National Bank Governor Ante Zigman, and Suomen Pankki Governor Olli Rehn expressed similar views, with Rehn calling for calm among policymakers given the current situation.

Despite the prevailing cautious sentiment, some officials remain highly vigilant about inflation risks. Lietuvos Bankas Governor Gediminas Simkus reiterated that the likelihood of a rate hike in September is significantly higher than holding steady. De Nederlandsche Bank Governor Olaf Sleijpen also believes the ECB could consider raising rates in September, even if the secondary effects of inflation have not yet fully materialized. Other sources have revealed that if the inflation outlook in the Eurozone does not show significant improvement, the ECB is effectively prepared to implement a rate hike in September.

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