A recent analysis highlights the ongoing diffusion within the AI thematic investment landscape. Researchers have constructed two specialized indices to track this trend: a "North American Computing Power Chain" index, comprising 47 leading A-share companies in areas like optical modules and PCBs that supply the North American market, and a "Domestic Computing Power Chain" index, featuring 41 leading A-share companies in the semiconductor and memory sectors focused on the domestic Chinese market.
Recently, the domestic computing power chain has begun to catch up, showing relative outperformance compared to the North American chain. This indicates that the AI-driven market rally is spreading internally within the computing power sector.
More notably, a comparison reveals a strong positive correlation between the performance of the North American chain relative to the domestic chain and its performance relative to Hong Kong-listed internet stocks, represented by names like Alibaba. This suggests that, alongside the internal shift from North American to domestic computing power suppliers, the Hang Seng Tech sector represents another major axis for the diffusion of the AI theme.
The underlying logic is straightforward. Firstly, the capital expenditure and guidance from major Hong Kong-listed internet platforms are as crucial for the domestic computing power chain as the spending from North American Cloud Service Providers is for their suppliers. This creates a symbiotic relationship. Consequently, these internet giants inherently possess trading attributes linked to domestic computing power. Secondly, these platforms, with their superior social scenarios and ecosystems, are prime beneficiaries as AI applications are deployed, giving them trading attributes linked to AI application adoption. Both aspects make them key directions for the ongoing diffusion of the AI theme in China.
Furthermore, from a global comparison perspective, Chinese cloud providers, represented by these Hong Kong internet stocks, are poised for a potential catch-up rally. Since April, North American cloud stocks have rebounded, with recent strong earnings and capex guidance fueling significant gains. In contrast, their Chinese counterparts have lagged, presenting a potential catch-up opportunity driven by this global parallel. Upcoming earnings reports from major Hong Kong internet companies in May will be critical, with investors closely watching their commentary and guidance on AI businesses and capital expenditure, as these could act as catalysts for the broader domestic AI supply chain.
Risk Reminders: 1. Historical patterns and indicators may not always predict future outcomes. 2. Statistical conclusions can vary depending on the specific time frame analyzed. 3. Data limitations may lead to discrepancies between calculated results and actual figures.