The week of May 4th to May 10th features several significant financial events, all times listed are in Beijing Time.

Key economic data releases include the US non-farm payrolls report for April on May 8th. Market expectations point to a slowdown in job growth compared to March. A figure significantly below forecasts could strengthen anticipation for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Several Fed officials are also scheduled to speak on the same day. On May 9th, China will release its import and export data. Additionally, China's foreign exchange reserve data, following 17 consecutive months of gold purchases, will be closely watched.

Regarding trade tensions and US-Iran relations, former President Trump announced a 25% tariff on cars and trucks imported from the EU, set to take effect next week, sharply escalating transatlantic trade friction and potentially boosting risk-off sentiment. Furthermore, Iran submitted a new proposal, described as "easing negotiation conditions." Trump stated he was "not satisfied" with the plan but was "inclined against military action," and announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire agreement.

In corporate earnings, key players in the optical components sector like Lumentum and COHERENT, along with chip giants such as Advanced Micro Devices and Arm, are set to report. Markets will scrutinize these results for signs of whether the high growth in AI computing demand persists. In a related development, Tencent Cloud announced a 5% price increase for its AI computing products, further indicating tight supply and demand dynamics in the computing power sector.

**Economic Indicators**

**China's April Export Data and Foreign Reserves**

China's import and export data will be released on May 9th. Industrial Securities anticipates a rebound in the year-on-year growth rates for exports and industrial value-added in April, as the distortion from the Lunar New Year holiday dissipates. On May 7th, April's foreign exchange reserve data will be published. China has been consistently adding to its gold reserves for seventeen consecutive months prior to this.

**US April Non-Farm Payrolls Data**

The US April non-farm payrolls report is due on May 8th. Market forecasts suggest a slowdown in job additions compared to March's figure, with the unemployment rate expected to remain stable. The extent of cooling in the labor market will be a key focus. Should job growth fall significantly short of expectations, it could reinforce market expectations for Fed rate cuts. On the same day, several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak at a conference at Stanford University.

**Australia's Policy Rate Decision**

On Tuesday, May 5th, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference by Governor Bullock. Market expectations are divided: pricing indicates a possibility of a rate hike to 4.35%, while Bloomberg Economics' baseline forecast is for the rate to remain unchanged at 4.10%. The primary focus will be on how the RBA balances inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran conflict against the drag on economic growth. Central banks in Mexico, Norway, and Sweden are also set to announce their respective interest rate decisions during the week.

**Bank of Japan Releases March Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes**

The Bank of Japan will release the minutes from its March monetary policy meeting. The central bank had previously kept its policy settings unchanged during that meeting. However, the Governor struck a hawkish tone, indicating that subsequent interest rate hikes would be considered based on economic conditions.

**Financial Events**

**Trump: 25% Tariff on EU Cars and Trucks (Week-long Event)**

According to reports, former US President Trump stated that due to the EU's failure to fulfill a mutually agreed trade deal, the US will impose a 25% tariff on cars and trucks imported from the EU starting next week (the week of May 4th). Trump mentioned that companies establishing production facilities in the US would be exempt from the tariff.

**Continued Focus on Middle East Tensions; Trump Announces Indefinite Ceasefire Extension (Week-long Event)**

Iran submitted a new negotiation proposal via Pakistan, expressing willingness to discuss nuclear issues in exchange for the lifting of US sanctions. It also indicated readiness to negotiate the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, provided the US guarantees a halt to attacks and lifts port blockades. However, Trump termed the proposal "unsatisfactory," while expressing a preference to avoid military action. On May 1st, Trump notified Congress that the situation with Iran was effectively "concluded" and extended the ceasefire agreement indefinitely.

**Potential Further Yen Intervention During Japan's Golden Week**

During Japan's Golden Week holidays (May 3rd to 5th), Japanese markets are closed, leading to significantly reduced liquidity. Historically, this period has often seen sharp currency fluctuations. Analysts warn that this window could again become a target for speculators and might trigger another intervention by Japanese authorities. On April 30th, Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market for the first time in nearly two years, spending over $90 billion to buy Yen, which resulted in the currency's largest single-day gain in four years. Following the intervention, Japanese officials hinted at readiness to enter the market again during Golden Week, keeping markets on high alert for a second round of intervention.

**Fed Officials, Including Permanent Voter Williams, to Speak Post-Meeting**

At its April 28th-29th policy meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, as expected. Following the meeting, several Fed officials, including permanent FOMC voter Williams, are scheduled to speak. On May 5th, permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams will deliver remarks. On the 6th, 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy. On the 7th, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion. On the 8th, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Mester, along with permanent voter Williams, are scheduled to speak. On the 9th, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and San Francisco Fed President Daly will participate in a panel discussion at the Hoover Institution's 2026 monetary policy conference.

**Tencent Cloud Raises Prices for AI Computing and Container Services by 5%**

Tencent Cloud announced that, effective May 9th, 2026, it will uniformly increase the list prices for its AI computing power, container service TKE native nodes, and Elastic MapReduce (EMR) related products by 5%. The company cited continuously surging global demand for AI computing power and significant increases in core hardware supply chain costs.

**Audi E7X to Begin Pre-sales on May 8th**

On April 24th, the AUDI brand's second model, the flagship SUV Audi E7X, was unveiled. It is reported that the new model will commence pre-sales on May 8th.

**Iran Stock Market Trading Halted Until May 4th**

According to reports, Iran's Securities and Exchange Organization stated that, following a resolution by the Supreme Securities Council, stock market trading would be suspended until May 4th. The organization indicated that the timing for resuming trading would be continuously assessed based on market conditions and whether relevant requirements are met.

**New Window for Domestic Refined Oil Price Adjustment Opens**

A new window for adjusting domestic refined oil prices will open on May 8th. Previously, on April 21st, domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices saw their first reduction this year, dropping by 555 yuan and 530 yuan per ton, respectively. The market is watching to see if the downward trend can continue.

**Earnings Reports**

**Earnings from Lumentum, COHERENT, Advanced Micro Devices, Arm, etc.**

Next week, US optical component leaders Lumentum and COHERENT, along with AI and chip industry players like Coreweave, Advanced Micro Devices, and Arm, are scheduled to report earnings. Simultaneously, giants including McDonald's, HSBC, Disney, Novo Nordisk, Shell, Toyota, and Sony will disclose their financial results. Domestic companies will also report, with market focus particularly on guidance from tech firms like Arm and Advanced Micro Devices regarding chip industry demand.

**Beteli's ChiNext IPO Review Scheduled for May 8th**

The Shenzhen Stock Exchange's listing review committee is scheduled to hold its 21st review meeting of 2026 on May 8th, 2026, to deliberate on the initial public offering of Suzhou Beteli Polymer Materials Co., Ltd. A schedule for Hong Kong stock earnings releases for the coming week is also available.