Copper prices have repeatedly hit record highs over the past year, largely driven by tariff-related trade flows. Now, investors are betting that a near-halt in copper mine output growth will push prices even higher. A string of disappointing production data this year is shaking expectations that global copper mine supply would at least post modest growth. According to data from the International Copper Study Group, global copper mine production fell 1.1% in the first half of the year, with both Chile's state-owned Codelco and Freeport-McMoRan recording double-digit declines. Morgan Stanley, which initially forecast supply growth at the start of the year, now expects output to remain broadly flat or slightly lower, which could mark the first annual decline in global copper mine production since 2017.

In a research note, J.P. Morgan highlighted that the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has issued an export ban on copper and cobalt concentrates. While the bank noted that assets in the DRC held by MMG Ltd (01208), Zijin Mining (02899), and CMOC (03993) account for roughly 14%, 25%, and 100% of their respective 2026 forecast copper production, it believes the actual policy impact will be limited. This is because the ban targets copper concentrate exports, while these companies' key DRC assets are equipped with integrated smelting capacity, producing anode copper, blister copper, and cathode copper rather than concentrates. J.P. Morgan also pointed out that since copper concentrate exports from the DRC were already subject to licensing restrictions, the incremental impact on short-term global copper supply is limited. However, if copper prices remain elevated, the DRC's windfall tax on copper could have a more significant direct impact on miners' profitability. Based on a spot copper price of $14,168 per tonne, the bank estimates the windfall tax would affect these companies' after-tax net profit by about 1 billion yuan. The bank maintains a positive view on copper miners, citing potential US tariffs as a stronger share price catalyst.

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Industrial Securities maintains its view that copper price center will trend higher in the second half of 2026. The brokerage noted that global mine supply disruptions are frequent in 2026, inventory destocking is happening in both domestic and international markets, and actual demand improvement far exceeds market expectations. US copper tariffs will further intensify structural contradictions in global inventories, while improved macro liquidity from US-Iran talks and shifting rate hike expectations make it easier for copper prices to rise than fall. Hong Kong-listed copper stocks covered in this theme include MMG Ltd (01208), China Nonferrous Mining (01258), Zijin Mining (02899), Jiangxi Copper (00358), and CMOC (03993).