GF Securities released a research report stating that "Fixed Income Plus" funds represent significant incremental capital in the market. Since late June, changes in the "four capital reservoirs" have driven the bull market. The current deposit migration is in the first stage of risk appetite elevation, shifting from pure fixed income to small equity exposure (Fixed Income Plus), while pure equity allocation remains less evident.
Current "Fixed Income Plus" positioning is relatively low, and future potential "position increases + net subscriptions" are expected to contribute incremental funds to the market. Calculations show that equity position elevation could bring hundreds of billions in incremental capital. If "Fixed Income Plus" equity holdings return to 2021 highs, there remains over 160 billion yuan of potential space.
Cyclical sectors, dividend stocks, and resource commodities serve as the main battleground for "Fixed Income Plus" funds, with most showing overweight allocations compared to active equity funds. These three categories share the common characteristic of enabling top-down trading approaches - the first two involve macro pricing while the latter involves macro-driven commodity pricing.
For cyclical sectors, "Fixed Income Plus" funds primarily allocate to white-chip leaders across various industries, including consumer building materials, cement, real estate, general automation, logistics, aviation, food, and pesticides. Aviation, logistics, and pesticides receive the highest preference.
For dividend stocks, allocations focus mainly on hydropower and banking sectors.
For resource commodities, primary allocations target copper, aluminum, and gold.
GF Securities' main viewpoints include:
"Fixed Income Plus" represents important incremental market capital. Since late June, changes in the "four capital reservoirs" have driven the bull market. Current deposit migration is in the first stage of risk appetite elevation, moving from pure fixed income to small equity exposure (Fixed Income Plus), while pure equity allocation remains less apparent.
Current "Fixed Income Plus" positioning is relatively low, with future potential "position increases + net subscriptions" expected to contribute incremental market funds. Calculations indicate equity position elevation could bring hundreds of billions in incremental capital, with over 160 billion yuan of additional space if "Fixed Income Plus" equity market value returns to 2021 peaks.
"Fixed Income Plus" Investment Preferences: What Industries and Companies Do They Favor?
Using active equity funds as benchmarks, the analysis observes "Fixed Income Plus" position levels relative to active equity funds, combined with absolute positioning, to infer industry preferences and stock selection criteria.
Conclusions show "Fixed Income Plus" funds prefer top-down investment frameworks, with four key characteristics: macro pricing, external demand, stable competitive landscape, and white-chip leaders. Participation in bottom-up emerging industries remains limited.
By CITIC Level 1 sectors, "Fixed Income Plus" top five heavy positions are non-ferrous metals, electronics, banking, transportation, and pharmaceuticals. The top five overweight sectors relative to active equity are non-ferrous metals, transportation, banking, utilities, and non-banking financial.
Technology: Overall participation remains low, with structural preferences for stable competitive landscape sub-sectors (such as panels), white-chip leaders, and gaming. For AI, "Fixed Income Plus" allocation intensity across the entire industrial chain significantly lags active equity funds.
For other technology assets, "Fixed Income Plus" funds show willingness to overweight relative to active equity in three main categories: stable competitive landscape tracks like panels; large white-chip leaders across industries such as 3PEAK, CCTC, Shunluo Electronics, and ZTE; and gaming.
High-end Manufacturing (New Energy, Military, Automotive): Similarly weak participation intensity, with structural preferences for stable competitive landscape wind power cables and military aircraft engines and defense trade.
Innovative Pharmaceuticals and New Consumption: Almost no participation in new consumption, with some positioning in innovative pharmaceuticals but significantly lower allocation intensity than active equity.
Export Chain: Favors US export chain leaders. The aforementioned three categories primarily follow bottom-up logic. For export industrial chains, top-down characteristics gradually emerge, especially for US exports, where "Fixed Income Plus" allocation preferences become apparent.
Heavy positions with overweight allocations relative to active equity include: home furnishing, thermal cups, tires, white appliances, construction machinery, forklifts, and aerial work platforms.
Cyclical Sectors, Dividend Stocks, Resource Commodities: The main battleground for "Fixed Income Plus" funds, mostly overweight relative to active equity. All three share the common characteristic of enabling top-down trading - the first two involve macro pricing while the latter involves macro-driven commodity pricing.
For cyclical sectors, "Fixed Income Plus" primarily allocates to white-chip leaders across industries including consumer building materials, cement, real estate, general automation, logistics, aviation, food, and pesticides, with strongest preferences for aviation, logistics, and pesticides.
For dividend stocks, primary allocations focus on hydropower and banking.
For resource commodities, main allocations target copper, aluminum, and gold.
Risk Warning: Fund quarterly reports only disclose top ten holdings; "Fixed Income Plus" fund equity positions may be unstable.