Guotai Haitong Securities released a research report stating that domestic demand cycle prices are warming up and service consumption sentiment is improving. Last week (September 15-21), mid-level economic indicators showed divergent performance, with notable developments: 1) First-tier city real estate sales growth further expanded, property market sentiment continued to improve, construction demand marginally improved, and combined with ongoing anti-involution policies in steel, coal and other industries, prices of domestic demand cycle resource products such as coal, steel, and glass showed improvement. 2) Service consumption sentiment improved month-over-month, Hainan tourism sentiment marginally recovered, long-distance passenger transport and aviation demand improved sequentially, and with new films released, movie box office rebounded significantly; durable goods domestic sales growth slowed, but passenger vehicle price pressure eased somewhat, with downstream demand expected to remain relatively stable going forward.

Downstream Consumption: Real estate sales marginally improved, service consumption sentiment enhanced. 1) Real estate: Commercial housing transaction area in 30 major cities increased 20.3% year-over-year. First-tier/second-tier/third-tier cities recorded commercial housing transaction area changes of +68.8%/+21.7%/-19.9% year-over-year respectively. Second-hand housing transaction area in 10 key cities increased 73.3% year-over-year. Real estate optimization policy effects continued to manifest, with first and second-tier city real estate sales growth further accelerating. 2) Durable goods consumption: National passenger vehicle retail sales for September 8-14, 2025 increased 1.0% year-over-year, as automotive price wars moderated and auto shows approached, passenger vehicle retail growth returned to slight positive territory; August air conditioner domestic sales/export volumes changed +1.2%/-4.2% year-over-year, with domestic demand overdraft effects becoming apparent and growth significantly slowing, while US tariffs continued to suppress export sentiment; 3) Agriculture and livestock: Live pig prices declined 3.2% sequentially, mainly due to increased slaughter volumes, with attention needed on frozen pork reserve implementation going forward; staple grain prices continued low-level fluctuations. 4) Service consumption: Service consumption sentiment recovered somewhat, with Hainan tourism consumption price index rising 1.3% month-over-month; quality new film releases sparked viewing enthusiasm, with movie box office surging 364.6% sequentially and 149.0% year-over-year.

Mid-stream Manufacturing: Construction demand marginally improved, manufacturing capacity utilization increased. 1) Infrastructure and real estate: Construction demand showed marginal slight improvement, steel stabilization policies were implemented, steel and glass prices rose modestly, while cement prices stabilized. 2) Manufacturing operations: Manufacturing operations generally improved, with automotive, chemical and other manufacturing capacity utilization continuing to recover month-over-month, while corporate hiring intentions remained stable.

Upstream Resources: Coal prices rose significantly, industrial metal prices under pressure. 1) Coal: Thermal coal supply remained tight, pre-holiday restocking demand was released, with coal prices rising 3.5% sequentially; 2) Non-ferrous metals: After the US September rate cut, Federal Reserve officials' statements leaned hawkish, suppressing international metal prices, combined with still weak domestic downstream demand, putting industrial metal prices under pressure.

People and Logistics Flow: Long-distance passenger transport sentiment improved, logistics activity recovered month-over-month. 1) Passenger transport: Long-distance travel demand improved slightly, aviation transport demand rose both sequentially and year-over-year, with urban transportation activity reaching new highs as school and work resumption progressed. 2) Freight transport: National highway truck traffic/national railway freight volume increased 1.9%/0.2% month-over-month; national postal and express collection/delivery volumes rose 1.5%/0.5% month-over-month respectively. 3) Shipping: Dry bulk freight rates continued rising mainly due to increased bulk commodity transportation demand in the northern hemisphere autumn season, with domestic port cargo/container throughput increasing 0.1%/0.2% month-over-month, showing marginal improvement in export sentiment.