Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that POP MART (09992) will face multiple consumer peak seasons in the coming months, including mainland China's National Day holiday and Western holidays such as Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas. Based on sufficient inventory of popular products, new product launches, and store expansion, the firm expects sales momentum to continue.

For POP MART's third quarter, Morgan Stanley anticipates sales growth of over 180% year-over-year, compared to 235% in the second quarter. The firm maintains its target price of HK$382 for POP MART (equivalent to projected P/E ratios of 42x, 32x, and 26x for 2025-2027 respectively) and "Overweight" rating, positioning it as the top industry pick.

While market sentiment toward POP MART (09992) has recently turned cautious, Morgan Stanley holds the opposite view. The firm references Pokemon's significant card production capacity expansion in 2021-2022 to address speculation issues and customer experience problems, which resulted in an expanded customer base driving sustained strong demand.

Some investors have questioned POP MART's sustainability, arguing that IP collectibles are not a mainstream hobby. However, Morgan Stanley believes the IP products market has reached considerable scale and continues growing, expressing confidence that POP MART's differentiated business model and competitive advantages can capitalize on the increasing "kidult" consumer demand.

Morgan Stanley forecasts POP MART's adjusted earnings per share for 2025-2027 at HK$2.58, HK$9.90, HK$11.87, and HK$14.67 respectively. The firm estimates the company holds a 5.7% share of the global IP products market this year, compared to Disney's 43.1% and Sanrio's 8.2%.