On Monday (February 16), during European and US trading hours, spot gold experienced a slight dip followed by a recovery, retaining most of its gains from the previous Friday.
According to media reports, US President Donald Trump explicitly stated that if the US-Iran nuclear talks ultimately collapse, he would support Israel in striking Iran's ballistic missile program. This stance was initially communicated during Trump's meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago last December. The statement directly heightens uncertainty in the Middle East, fueling strong expectations for a rise in gold, a traditional safe-haven asset.
The core focus of the talks: The composition of the negotiating teams and the progress of discussions are set to dominate short-term fluctuations in gold prices. The second round of US-Iran nuclear negotiations is scheduled to take place formally in Geneva on Tuesday. The outcome will serve as a key anchor for short-term market risk appetite, directly influencing the direction of gold prices.
The US side has confirmed its core negotiating team, which will include Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. This high-level configuration underscores the importance the US places on the issue and also suggests that the negotiations involve core interest negotiations. The market should closely monitor points of divergence between the two sides and signals of progress.
Military action expectations: US preparations intensify the momentum for safe-haven buying. Further reports reveal that US military and intelligence officials have already begun preliminary discussions on assisting potential Israeli military operations, planning to provide key logistical support such as aerial refueling and coordinating overflight permissions with regional countries. The escalating expectation of military intervention has significantly boosted market risk aversion, increasing investor demand for gold allocation and becoming an important driver supporting stronger gold prices.
Factors restraining the situation: Multi-party博弈 adds uncertainty to price movements. However, the regional situation is not escalating in one direction alone; there are multiple restraining variables. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have publicly stated their positions: they will neither allow their airspace to be used for attacks against Iran nor permit Iran to use their territories for cross-border attacks. The divergent attitudes of regional countries increase the complexity of the situation's博弈.
Simultaneously, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also expressed a preference for resolving tensions through diplomatic channels. The interplay between the diplomatic and military paths complicates market pricing and adds uncertainty to the trajectory of gold prices.
Gold market outlook: Negotiation progress becomes the key to bull-bear博弈. The gold market is currently at a critical juncture. Any minor development in the US-Iran talks could trigger significant volatility in gold prices. In the short term, geopolitical risk has replaced other factors as the core driver of gold's price logic: should the talks break down and military risks escalate, gold would quickly attract safe-haven capital, leading to a significant upward trend. Conversely, if the talks achieve a breakthrough, a cooling of risk aversion could lead to a阶段性 pullback in gold prices.
Subsequently, close attention must be paid to the progress of the Geneva negotiations. The battle between gold bulls and bears is entering a白热化 stage, and changes in the geopolitical risk premium will dominate short-term market direction.
As of 21:41 Beijing time, spot gold was quoted at $4994 per ounce.