Investors widely believe quantum computing remains in the realm of science fiction, but a recent Barclays research report argues that this "too early" illusion could cause them to miss the most critical trend over the next 12 months.

According to Barclays' analyst team, their latest report, titled "Quantum Computing: Correcting the Biggest Investor Misconceptions," presents a straightforward core logic: Wall Street is underestimating the pace of technological breakthroughs and completely misunderstanding the relationship between quantum and classical computing power (e.g., Nvidia). Barclays posits that we are on the cusp of transitioning quantum computing from a "laboratory toy" to a "commercial tool."

**Misconception 1: Quantum Computing is "Premature"** Barclays' first correction is to stop viewing quantum computing as a purely long-term theme with results only expected a decade from now. While the market consensus that fully functional "Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computing" (FTQC) is post-2030 is correct, Barclays warns investors not to overlook the interim "tipping point." The report identifies 2026-2027 as an industry watershed when "Quantum Advantage" is expected to be achieved. Crucially, Barclays defines this advantage as being proven "when a system targets 100 logical qubits," cautioning that any claims require strong technical data backing, lest they be mere marketing rather than a true inflection point.

The report anticipates significant announcements within the next 12 months, suggesting that proving quantum advantage with 100 stable logical qubits would be akin to the Wright brothers' first flight—not yet commercially viable but demonstrating clear superiority. Such a signal would instantly reshape valuation logic in capital markets.

**Misconception 2: Quantum Computing Will Replace Classical Computing, Dooming Nvidia** This is identified as the market's biggest cognitive bias. Contrary to the belief that quantum computers will supplant current CPUs and GPUs due to their power, Barclays refutes this, framing the relationship not as replacement but as "the ultimate assistant." The core logic hinges on "error correction": Qubits are fragile and unstable, requiring immensely powerful classical computing systems to monitor and correct them in real-time.

Barclays' research reveals a startling data point: each logical qubit might necessitate a dedicated GPU for error correction and control. This implies that a quantum computer with 1,000 logical qubits could require 500 to 2,000 GPUs to support it. This is a symbiotic, not competitive, relationship; stronger quantum computers would exponentially increase demand for chips from companies like Nvidia and AMD. Barclays estimates this "companion demand" could inject over $100 billion in incremental value into the classical computing market by 2040 in a bullish scenario.

**Misconception 3: All Quantum Hardware is Similar, Like a Lottery Ticket** The reality is that the field is already differentiated, with clear leaders. Barclays categorizes mainstream physical qubit paths—electronic (superconducting, spin), atomic (trapped ions, neutral atoms), and photonic—noting trade-offs in speed, accuracy, coherence time, external infrastructure (cryogenics, lasers, vacuum), and scalability. Using a "quantum benchmarking model," the report highlights key players:

* **Current "Accuracy King" – Trapped Ions:** Represented by companies like Quantinuum and IonQ, this path boasts high accuracy, low error rates, and relative maturity. * **Future "Mass Production Dark Horse" – Silicon Spin:** Intel's approach, which, while currently less performant, leverages existing semiconductor fabs and holds the greatest potential for mass scalability upon a breakthrough. * **Quantity Leader – Neutral Atoms:** This path has a natural advantage in stacking large numbers of qubits.

Barclays concludes that while trapped ions currently lead, silicon spin's scalability warrants long-term attention.

**Misconception 4: Encryption is About to Be Broken** Barclays dismisses fears that quantum computers will soon crack bank encryption as premature, stating the computational power is insufficient. Breaking current RSA encryption requires thousands of perfect logical qubits, whereas today's most advanced devices possess only dozens. The report clearly states that quantum computers are not yet powerful enough to threaten modern encryption standards.

**Misconception 5: The Quantum Theme Has Only "Two or Three Investable Companies"** Countering the view of scarce investment targets, Barclays has mapped the entire supply chain, identifying 45 public companies and over 80 private companies across four key areas: 1) Quantum Processors (system sales or QCaaS cloud access) 2) Quantum Supply Chain (cryogenics, lasers/optics, control electronics, materials) 3) Quantum Chip Design & Fabrication (overlapping with traditional semiconductor manufacturing) 4) Ecosystem Enablers (cloud, data center infrastructure, quantum simulators, quantum-classical integration: GPU/CPU/servers)

The report proposes a "risk pricing" framework: short-term, higher revenue exposure often correlates with higher technical risk. It categorizes risk as high (tied to a single technical path), medium (tied to a few paths), or low (path-agnostic). This explains why the narrative often focuses on pure-play quantum hardware stocks—their revenue exposure is most direct, but their path uncertainty is also greatest. Conversely, companies in the supply chain, semiconductor equipment, EDA, cloud/data centers, and hybrid integration may better capture the传导 of "quantum progress → capital expenditure and supporting demand."