Pre-market market movements. On Friday, October 9, US stock index futures rose collectively ahead of the opening bell. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.14%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.42%, and Nasdaq futures climbed 0.88%.

As of press time, Germany's DAX index rose 1.29%, the UK's FTSE 100 gained 1.18%, France's CAC 40 advanced 0.94%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was up 1.05%.

As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 1.04% to $90.54 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 1.49% to $102.73 per barrel.

Market News

Goldman Sachs raised its rate hike expectations following Waller's hawkish remarks, suggesting the Fed may hike twice more, including a 25 basis point increase in December. After Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivered hawkish comments at a central bank forum in Istanbul, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said the Fed may choose to raise rates two more times rather than just once in December. Hatzius said in a report that two additional hikes may be more appropriate, and the probability of only a December hike has declined. The analyst noted that Waller's speech marked a shift from his previous emphasis on the three-month annualized core PCE inflation rate toward a hawkish stance, though Goldman Sachs still expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in December.

OpenAI and Anthropic executives privately war-game AI catastrophe scenarios, fearing a major incident could trigger public backlash. According to reports, senior executives at Anthropic, OpenAI, and other AI companies are privately gaming out various scenarios to prepare for the massive public backlash and political resistance that could follow a catastrophic AI incident. These executives anticipate that a major accident may occur in the future, most likely in the form of a cyberattack that disrupts financial services, internet connectivity, and even power and water systems. Multiple AI industry insiders believe that a major incident may be difficult to avoid.

OpenAI expects annualized revenue to reach $70 billion by the end of 2026. According to people familiar with the matter, OpenAI expects its annualized revenue to reach or exceed $70 billion by the end of this year, driven by growth in its enterprise business. The sources said OpenAI's annualized revenue was approximately $50 billion as of the end of September. This metric extrapolates full-year revenue based on sales over a shorter period. They said OpenAI disclosed these figures to investors during discussions about its latest funding round. It was previously reported that OpenAI is in talks to raise at least $30 billion in new funding at a pre-money valuation of $1.4 trillion.

Bank of America: Investor cash inflows surge, and this trend is unlikely to change in the short term. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said investors are pouring money into cash-like funds at the fastest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic, and this allocation trend is unlikely to reverse in the short term. In a report published Friday, Hartnett noted that unless the Fed implements "massive monetary easing" and continues cutting rates, the large pool of sidelined cash is expected to remain in money market funds. In the week ended October 7, money market funds saw net inflows of $166.4 billion, the highest level since April 2020.

The US plans to propose a new ceasefire plan for Russia and Ukraine, involving energy infrastructure and grain shipments. According to reports, US Middle East envoy Witkoff and Kushner will hold talks with Ukrainian and European officials in Miami on Friday, proposing a new plan to break the deadlock in the Russia-Ukraine war, including a partial ceasefire proposal to stop attacks on energy infrastructure and grain shipments. Ukraine has expressed willingness to consider it, but Russia has so far been unresponsive. Witkoff and Kushner briefed Trump on the latest plan on Thursday, and the talks will also discuss security guarantees for Ukraine and a post-war economic plan. Sources said the two may travel to Moscow later this month for further consultations with Putin.

Trump: The US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections, and the two sides are engaged in "productive discussions." Trump said Thursday that the US will not launch a military strike on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. Just a day before Trump's remarks, reports said the White House had asked the Pentagon to draft strike options against Iran that could be executed before the midterm elections. Trump posted on Truth Social that the US is having "productive discussions" with Iran, while emphasizing that Iran is currently in a "very bad position, both economically and militarily."

IDC: Global PC shipments fell 20.1% year-over-year in the third quarter. The latest preliminary data from International Data Corporation (IDC) shows that global PC shipments totaled 62.7 million units in the third quarter of 2026, down 20.1% year-over-year. This marks the second consecutive quarterly decline, and the drop is significantly larger than the 3.8% decrease in the second quarter. On a sequential basis, third-quarter shipments also fell 9.1%, and the typical pattern of the third quarter being stronger than the second did not materialize this time. Supply-side conditions have not recovered, and earlier in the year, manufacturers and channel partners concentrated their stockpiling ahead of price increases, pulling forward demand and leaving little releasable demand by the third quarter.

Individual Stock News

Delta Air Lines (DAL.US) reported record third-quarter revenue, but high oil prices weighed on its profit outlook. Delta Air Lines shares fell sharply in pre-market trading on Friday. The earnings report showed that air travel demand remains strong, and the airline even reported record third-quarter revenue of $17.6 billion. However, elevated jet fuel prices are indeed beginning to take a toll on the entire industry. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.72, below the market estimate of $1.77. The company now expects full-year earnings per share between $5.10 and $5.60, down from its previous range of $6.50 to $7.50 and below the analyst consensus of $5.50. CEO Ed Bastian said the company expects to achieve $4.5 billion in pre-tax profit this year but will absorb as much as $6 billion in increased fuel costs.

SpaceX (SPCX.US) spent heavily to acquire low-band spectrum and is entering the mobile carrier business, sending US telecom stocks tumbling across the board. SpaceX announced the acquisition of nationwide 800MHz low-band spectrum and received FCC authorization to deploy 15,000 direct-to-cell satellites, formally declaring its independent entry into the US mobile carrier market. As a result, AT&T (T.US), T-Mobile (TMUS.US), and Verizon (VZ.US) all fell collectively in pre-market trading. Musk, armed with $93.5 billion in cash and 12 million Starlink subscribers, is reshaping the competitive landscape of the entire telecom industry with what he calls the "final piece of the puzzle."

Lumentum (LITE.US): Demand for optoelectronic components is strong, and "sold-out capacity" conditions will persist through 2029. As tech companies race to build faster AI data centers, Lumentum said its optoelectronic component capacity is almost fully booked, a situation expected to persist until around 2029. Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston said the company will be unable to meet about 70% of product demand next year, and as much as 30% will remain unmet through 2028. Hurlston previously said the company was on track to sell out its capacity by 2028.

Apple (AAPL.US) reportedly cut iPhone 18 Pro orders due to weak demand. According to multiple people familiar with the matter, Apple has asked some suppliers to reduce component production for the newly released iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, as sharply higher memory chip costs forced Apple to raise prices, dampening consumer demand. Two of the sources said Apple's component orders this month were cut by at least 15% from initial requests. Another person familiar with the matter said this may be related to Apple adjusting its iPhone model release schedule. As a result, Apple shares fell nearly 2% in pre-market trading.

GlobalFoundries (GFS.US) reached a $2 billion silicon interposer supply agreement with TSMC (TSM.US). GlobalFoundries announced Thursday that it has reached a five-year, $2 billion agreement to provide US-based capacity to TSMC. Under the agreement announced Thursday, GlobalFoundries will help supply components known as "silicon interposers." The US chipmaker will rely on its Malta, New York facility for production and said it has the option to expand capacity as customer demand grows.

Starbucks (SBUX.US) declined to comment on rumors of acquiring Chipotle (CMG.US): fully focused on turnaround, potential acquisition could be costly. Starbucks declined to comment Thursday on a report that it had attempted to acquire Chipotle Mexican Grill. Starbucks said the company is "highly focused" on its turnaround under CEO Brian Niccol. Foreign media previously cited people familiar with the matter as saying that Starbucks had worked with advisers in recent months to study a potential acquisition of Chipotle. Before becoming Starbucks CEO in 2024, Niccol led Chipotle for about six years.

Key Economic Data and Event Preview

Beijing time 20:30: Canada September employment change. Beijing time 22:00: US October University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary reading. Beijing time 01:00 the next day: US total rig count for the week ending October 9. Beijing time 04:00 the next day: Boston Fed President Collins, a 2028 FOMC voter, delivers a speech.