Eric Berger, a senior space editor at the tech news site Ars Technica, shared his latest article on platform X: "Why SpaceX is Going Public After Years of Resistance."
He wrote, "Here’s why I think SpaceX is about to go public." Elon Musk responded, "As usual, Eric is correct."
Below is the full text of Berger’s article: Multiple reports indicate that SpaceX plans to raise tens of billions of dollars through an initial public offering (IPO) next year. This marks a significant shift in thinking for the world’s leading aerospace company and its founder, Elon Musk.
The Information first reported the potential IPO last Friday, followed by Bloomberg on Tuesday evening, which stated the company is targeting a valuation of $1.5 trillion. This would enable SpaceX to secure over $30 billion in funding.
The scale is staggering. The largest IPO in history occurred in 2019 when Saudi Aramco raised $29 billion. By revenue, Aramco ranks among the top five global companies. Now, SpaceX could match or surpass that figure.
SpaceX’s appeal to public investors is no surprise—it dominates space launches, satellite communications, and more. For investors chasing limitless growth, space is the final frontier.
With Starlink’s expansion driving soaring revenues, why is Musk pursuing an IPO now? The decision is surprising, given his long-standing resistance to taking SpaceX public. He has expressed discomfort with public scrutiny of Tesla and concerns that shareholder demands for returns might conflict with his ultimate goal of colonizing Mars.
Ars interviewed several sources familiar with Musk’s thinking to understand his rationale.
A key factor is the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). Since co-founding OpenAI in 2015, Musk has been deeply involved in AI. After a fallout with its founders, he launched xAI in 2023. At Tesla, he has advanced autonomous driving and robotics, foreseeing a convergence of these technologies that could reshape civilization.
By raising substantial capital in the next 18 months, Musk could deploy resources at SpaceX to influence this technological fusion.
How would SpaceX contribute? In the short term, the company plans to develop upgraded Starlink satellites as the foundation for space-based data centers. Musk confirmed this on X in late October: "SpaceX will do this."
But his vision extends further. Over the weekend, Musk posted on X: "The next level is building satellite factories on the Moon and using mass drivers (electromagnetic railguns) to launch AI satellites at lunar escape velocity—equivalent to over 100 terawatts of AI annually—propelling humanity toward becoming a Kardashev Type II civilization."
Projections estimate SpaceX’s 2025 revenue between $22 billion and $24 billion—a sum comparable to NASA’s annual budget. With IPO proceeds, SpaceX could accelerate satellite and rocket development for space-based data centers.
Abhi Tripathi, a longtime SpaceX employee now at UC Berkeley’s Space Sciences Laboratory, believes Musk’s realization that Starlink satellites could form a distributed data center network triggered the IPO push.
Tripathi told Ars, "This is the moment the IPO suddenly became viable. If you follow Elon’s playbook, once he commits, he goes all in. AI competition hinges on deploying assets faster than rivals. The IPO’s massive funding would give him a decisive edge."
Musk’s top priority is "winning" the AI race. He’s tackling this through xAI and Tesla, and now aims to bring SpaceX into the fray. Taking SpaceX public to consolidate vast resources signals his determination to prevail.
What about Mars? Musk founded SpaceX in 2002 with the goal of settling Mars. The company has made remarkable progress, now handling over 90% of global orbital mass launches, operating nearly 90% of active satellites, and supporting most U.S. civil and military space activities. With Starship, SpaceX is building the first vehicle capable of transporting humans and supplies to Mars.
If keeping SpaceX private was meant to protect the Mars vision, has Musk abandoned it? Not necessarily. He likely sees AI as integral to Mars colonization. Whether or not Optimus robots become viable, Musk believes in deploying them to prepare the Red Planet for settlers.
A larger, well-funded SpaceX is essential for Mars settlement. Musk knows NASA won’t foot the bill—its mandate is exploration, not colonization. Establishing a self-sustaining Mars outpost requires transporting roughly 1 million tons of cargo, necessitating around 1,000 Starship flights (10,000 launches including refueling). At $100 million per launch, costs could hit $1 trillion.
Musk often warns that humanity’s window to settle Mars may be limited—by financial crashes, pandemics, or asteroid impacts. Going public now is a gamble to mobilize resources in his lifetime. He’s 54.
Risks remain. If AI proves a bubble, SpaceX might end up with trillion-dollar satellites of limited utility. Shareholders may prioritize wealth over multi-planetary ambitions.
But Musk doesn’t shy from risk. Doubling down on his most successful asset aligns with expectations.