On Wednesday, February 18th, international gold prices rebounded and closed higher, recovering from Tuesday's losses. However, resistance was encountered at the middle Bollinger Band, indicating that prices are likely to remain in a consolidation phase until they stabilize above this level and the short-term moving averages. Investors are watching for potential buying opportunities upon a pullback to the support levels of the 30-day or 60-day moving averages.
In terms of price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,876.74 per ounce, initially dipping to a daily low of $4,853.93. It then rebounded, retreated around midday, and rose again towards the end of the European session. The rally extended into the latter part of the U.S. session, pushing prices above the $5,000 mark to a daily high of $5,011.16. However, resistance emerged again, leading to a pullback. The metal ultimately settled at $4,977.49, with a daily range of $157.23, a gain of $100.75, or 2.07%.
The rally was driven by technical support buying. Additionally, Russian media reported that the Geneva talks between Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine concluded without any signed documents, while comments from Hassett suggested the Federal Reserve still has significant room for interest rate cuts. These factors heightened geopolitical risks and bolstered expectations for rate cuts, helping gold prices reclaim the $5,000 level. However, the release of hawkish Fed meeting minutes, where several officials left room for potential rate hikes if inflation remains high, later caused prices to retreat from their highs.
Looking ahead to Thursday, February 19th, international gold opened weaker, extending the previous session's late pullback pressured by the hawkish Fed minutes and resistance at the middle Bollinger Band. Nevertheless, support at the 30-day moving average held, preventing a breakdown. Geopolitical risks persist, and some Fed officials have indicated there is still considerable scope for rate cuts within the year, suggesting supportive factors remain intact. Therefore, until the situation becomes clearer, gold prices are expected to trade with volatility, with a bias towards eventually climbing higher.
Today's focus will be on economic data releases including U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 14th, the U.S. trade balance for December, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for February, and the monthly rate of the U.S. Pending Home Sales Index for January. Overall expectations lean towards being negative for gold; the extent of any price decline following the data will be monitored. Technically, with moving average support levels holding, buying on dips remains a viable strategy.
Fundamentally, while the hawkish tone in the Fed's minutes and expectations for weaker data may limit gold's upside in the near term, the impact is likely constrained. The current pullback is viewed as potentially creating entry points for long positions. On one hand, geopolitical risks are elevated, with CBS News citing sources indicating that senior U.S. national security officials have informed former President Trump that a military strike on Iran could occur as early as Saturday, and Israel raising its national alert level and intensifying military preparations. On the other hand, the potential appointment of former Fed Governor Warsh, who is seen as favorable to the low-interest-rate policies preferred by the Trump administration, as Chair in May leaves room for speculation about medium to long-term rate cuts.
Consequently, supported by geopolitical tensions and the prospect of accommodative monetary policy, gold retains a bullish outlook.
Technically, on the monthly chart, after extending January's bearish shooting star pattern with a decline in February, gold found support at the level of the former resistance-turned-support trendline breached earlier in the year and rebounded. It remains within a new bullish territory and above the 5-month moving average, suggesting the bearish correction from January may be exhausted. The bullish outlook remains valid, with expectations for prices to strengthen and climb again while holding above this trendline support, though momentum has weakened recently, indicating potential consolidation before the next leg higher.
On the daily chart, gold is currently trading below the middle Bollinger Band and short-term moving averages, giving bears a near-term advantage. However, with the 30-day moving average support intact, short-term price action is biased towards consolidation. A break and hold above the middle band would signal a resumption of the uptrend. A break below the 30-day moving average would suggest a deeper pullback towards the 60-day moving average, which could present a buying opportunity. Until then, short-term trading within the range is anticipated.
For specific real-time trading guidance, refer to live position management information.
Preliminary intraday trading levels for reference; exact entry/exit points should be confirmed with real-time positioning: Gold: Support is eyed near $4,930 or $4,870; Resistance is seen near $5,020 or $5,075. Silver: Support is eyed near $75.00 or $73.40; Resistance is seen near $78.70 or $80.00.