The 8-day Mid-Autumn and National Day holiday has come to an end, and the A-share market is about to welcome the fourth quarter trading session of 2025. During the extended holiday period, the Hong Kong stock market remained open for 4 trading days. How did it perform? What are investors' expectations for A-share performance after the holiday?

**Hang Seng Index Shows Volatility During Holiday, Gold Stocks Stand Out**

Data shows that the Hong Kong stock market exhibited a pattern of initial gains followed by pullbacks over the past 4 trading days. The Hang Seng Index surged 1.61% on October 2nd, then declined for three consecutive trading days. As of October, it has cumulatively dropped 0.1%; the Hang Seng Tech Index performed slightly better, gaining 0.75% for the month. The AH premium ratio reached 117.14, hitting its lowest level since late January 2019.

In terms of sectors, Hong Kong-listed e-commerce, semiconductor, and non-ferrous metal stocks performed well during the holiday. E-commerce SaaS leader Youzan has gained over 38% in October, while SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor both rose more than 10%. Chalco, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium also significantly outperformed the Hang Seng Index.

Notably, benefiting from the continuous rise in international gold prices during the holiday, Hong Kong gold sector stocks performed remarkably well. Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining's H-shares surged over 23% in October, reaching historical highs and showing a 16.3% premium over A-shares. Industry leader Zijin Mining's H-shares also gained over 5% in October, with the premium over A-shares expanding to 6.59%.

Sectors with larger declines were mainly consumer discretionary and digital economy stocks. Restaurant chain Xiabuxiabu fell over 9% in October, while data center leader GDS Holdings dropped more than 8%. Additionally, holiday-related concept stocks including KE Holdings, Trip.com Group, Maoyan Entertainment, and Air China were among the top decliners.

Research from Cathay Securities analysis suggests that driven by continued large inflows of incremental funds and structural advantages of Hong Kong stock assets, Hong Kong stocks may outperform the first quarter performance this autumn, with major indices potentially reaching new highs.

The research indicates that with the Federal Reserve restarting rate cuts, the return of foreign capital to Hong Kong stocks may exceed expectations. The market currently expects the Fed to cut rates by another 25 basis points in October. If Fed rate cuts continue in the fourth quarter, with loosening liquidity conditions and stabilizing China-US trade relations, the trend of foreign capital returning to Hong Kong stocks may be consolidated.

Furthermore, southbound capital is expected to continue flowing into Hong Kong stocks. Hong Kong tech and consumer assets have certain scarcity compared to A-shares, while being more closely related to current AI applications and new consumption industry trends, making them attractive in the current weak macroeconomic environment. By the end of the third quarter, southbound capital has flowed over 1 trillion yuan into Hong Kong stocks this year.

**A-Shares Likely to Have Strong Opening After Holiday**

During the holiday period, other major overseas China-related asset indices moved similarly to Hong Kong stocks. As of publication, the FTSE China A50 futures index was down 0.22% in October, while the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index was up 0.06%.

Many analysts believe the overseas market performance during the holiday may have limited impact on A-shares' opening day. However, historical data shows that from 2000 to 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index averaged a 0.48% gain on the first trading day of October, with a 64% probability of rising. In the past 10 years (2015-2024), the Shanghai Composite had a 70% probability of rising on October's first trading day. The probability of A-shares achieving a "strong opening" after the holiday remains relatively high.

CSC Securities analysis indicates that A-share markets generally show "post-holiday strong opening" characteristics after National Day holidays. In bull markets, post-holiday gains typically last longer and often exhibit typical market characteristics where holidays coincide with positive catalysts.

China Securities believes that based on the median range gains and success rates over the past decade, A-shares have strong profit potential in the fourth quarter. Structurally, due to policy dynamics and year-end "valuation switching," value styles that are more correlated with economic aggregates and relatively stable show significant advantages.

A previous survey showed that 70.19% of private funds are optimistic about post-holiday market performance, believing the market may gradually recover after pre-holiday consolidation. Regarding investment directions, 59.62% of private funds favor technology growth sectors including AI, semiconductors, humanoid robots, autonomous driving, and innovative pharmaceuticals.

An investment executive believes that A-share trading sentiment that weakened before the holiday is expected to recover. On one hand, global asset classes generally rose during the holiday, reducing disruptions to Chinese assets from overseas uncertainties. On the other hand, domestic macroeconomic conditions remain relatively stable, with high holiday travel enthusiasm and continued recovery in service consumption, combined with good Hong Kong stock performance, making it likely that short-term risk-averse funds will flow back to A-share markets.

Asset management firms also believe that during the holiday, significant collaborations and AI model releases may provide catalysts for A-share computing power and artificial intelligence application sectors.