Abstract

Assurant will report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 10, 2026 Post Market, with investors watching revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS for confirmation of ongoing momentum and guidance implications for 2026.

Market Forecast

Consensus for Assurant’s current quarter points to total revenue of USD 3.30 billion with adjusted EPS of USD 5.50, implying forecast year-over-year growth of 8.34% for revenue and 33.20% for adjusted EPS; gross profit margin and net profit margin are expected to remain broadly stable, consistent with recent trends. The main business outlook highlights steady growth in net premiums and fee income on durable device protection and lender-placed insurance demand. The most promising segment is net premiums at USD 2.63 billion, supported by improving claim trends and ongoing program wins, showing resilient year-over-year expansion.

Last Quarter Review

Assurant’s previous quarter delivered total revenue of USD 3.23 billion, a gross profit margin of 12.31%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 0.27 billion, a net profit margin of 8.22%, and adjusted EPS of USD 5.73, with adjusted EPS up 0.91% year-over-year. Net profit increased 12.88% quarter-on-quarter, underpinned by operational discipline and favorable investment income. Main business momentum was driven by net premiums at USD 2.63 billion, while fees and other revenue reached USD 0.48 billion, demonstrating solid program retention and stable partner activity.

Current Quarter Outlook

Device Protection and Extended Service Contracts

The device protection and extended service contracts franchise remains central to Assurant’s earnings power near term. Revenue growth is anchored by net premiums expansion, particularly within mobile device insurance and retail service contracts tied to major carrier and retail partners. Claims normalization observed through the second half of 2025, coupled with ongoing cost management in service operations, supports a balanced gross margin profile around the low double-digit level. The integration of value-added services such as repair logistics, trade-in, and upgrade programs enhances fee and other revenue while improving customer stickiness, reinforcing revenue visibility into 2026. This quarter, pricing actions taken on select programs in late 2025 should incrementally lift net premiums while keeping loss ratios within target ranges, benefiting the gross profit trajectory.

Lender-Placed and Specialty Property

Assurant’s lender-placed and specialty property solutions continue to benefit from a stable mortgage-servicer customer base and calibrated reinsurance structures. The portfolio mix has shifted toward products with improved underwriting economics after earlier filings and renewals, reducing volatility from severe weather events relative to prior years. Incremental revenue gains are expected as the company executes on selective growth opportunities in forced-placed insurance and specialty products, with underwriting tightening sustaining the net profit margin near recent levels. This quarter’s profitability sensitivity remains tied to weather losses and catastrophe patterns; however, loss mitigation initiatives and retention of profitable accounts are positioned to blunt adverse swings, sustaining earnings quality even in a normalized catastrophe environment.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

This quarter’s equity narrative will be most influenced by adjusted EPS versus consensus, gross margin resilience, and clarity on 2026 growth vectors. A print in line with the USD 5.50 estimate accompanied by stable gross margin around 12.00%–13.00% and net margin close to 8.00% would validate the forecast of mid- to high-single-digit revenue growth. Investors will also parse commentary on carrier contracts renewals in device protection, the cadence of trade-in volumes, and the impact of cost initiatives on service delivery expense. The guidance framework for 2026—particularly around underwriting discipline in property lines and incremental cross-sell of fee-based services—could shape near-term valuation, as sustained margin quality and capital deployment signals (buybacks or dividend growth) are potential sentiment catalysts.

Analyst Opinions

Recent analyst commentary leans constructive, with a majority expecting in-line to modestly better results and supportive guidance. Noted institutional views point to continued earnings strength from mobile device protection and steady property performance, with upside stems from operating leverage in service operations and disciplined underwriting. Consensus commentary emphasizes balanced risks, citing manageable catastrophe exposure and solid partner retention, while cautioning that any step-down in carrier program volumes could temper revenue momentum. The prevailing view is that Assurant can meet or slightly exceed the USD 5.50 adjusted EPS and USD 3.30 billion revenue forecasts, with operating trends in the core segments providing a foundation for continued margin consistency.