Abstract

Deere will release its quarterly results on February 19, 2026, Pre-Market; the preview synthesizes recent financials, consensus forecasts, and institutional commentary to frame likely outcomes for revenue, profitability, and earnings.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest compiled forecast, Deere’s current quarter revenue is expected to be $7.69 billion, implying a year-over-year change of -0.15%; EBIT is projected at $508.84 million with a year-over-year change of -49.89%, and adjusted EPS is anticipated at $2.05 with a year-over-year change of -34.11%. Margin expectations reflect continued cyclical pressure: consensus points to tightening profitability, and management’s prior narrative of a challenging backdrop suggests gross margin and net profit margin could be softer year-over-year, while still benefiting from product mix and pricing discipline. Deere’s main business is anchored by equipment sales and related solutions; the near-term highlight is steady demand for essential replacement cycles despite muted new-equipment orders. The segment with the most promising growth potential remains precision-enabled solutions embedded across Production & Precision Agriculture, supported by aftermarket services and finance offerings that stabilize revenue through the cycle, although explicit segment-level forecasts are not provided.

Last Quarter Review

Deere’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $10.58 billion, a gross profit margin of 25.13%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $1.07 billion, and a net profit margin of 8.63%; adjusted EPS was $3.93, with a year-over-year change of -13.63%. Quarter-on-quarter net profit declined by 17.38%, underlining the cyclical normalization in large ag equipment demand. Main business highlights: equipment sales accounted for $10.58 billion of revenue, while finance and interest contributed $1.52 billion and other businesses added $0.30 billion, reflecting a diversified income base across sales, services, and financing activities.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Core Equipment and Solutions

The core of Deere’s earnings power is its equipment sales and integrated solutions that address the needs of agricultural and construction customers. Recent company commentary indicates an operating environment that remains challenging and uncertain, consistent with softer farmers’ cash receipts and cautious dealer inventory posture heading into spring. For this quarter, consensus forecasts a mild decline in revenue and a sharp contraction in EBIT and EPS, indicating pressure on manufacturing absorption, discounting, and unfavorable mix as high-horsepower categories normalize from peak levels. That said, Deere’s installed base and service-led model should continue to support parts and aftermarket revenue, which typically carries richer margins than new equipment; this may mitigate gross margin compression even as net margin feels the weight of lower unit volumes and higher operating expenses.

Most Promising Business: Precision-Enabled Solutions and Aftermarket

Precision technology embedded in Production & Precision Agriculture and aftermarket parts remains a relative bright spot. Even in a more subdued capital spending cycle, farmers prioritize yield optimization and uptime, which sustains demand for guidance, automation features, and connected services. These solutions deepen customer lock-in and drive recurring revenue opportunities; parts, maintenance, and upgrades often track field activity rather than capex cycles, providing resilience. While explicit revenue and year-over-year growth for this segment are not broken out in the current forecast, the broader pattern in prior cycles has been that precision and aftermarket offerings cushion downturns in new machine sales. This quarter, these businesses could help anchor gross margin, even as EBIT compresses due to lower overall volumes and manufacturing cost under-recovery.

Factors Most Impacting the Stock Price This Quarter

The stock’s near-term reaction will be shaped by three dynamics: volume and price realization in large Agriculture equipment, the cadence of dealer inventory and order intake, and margin performance relative to expectations. If reported revenue aligns near the $7.69 billion mark with limited deterioration in gross margin from last quarter’s 25.13%, markets may view the troughing narrative as credible. Conversely, a deeper-than-expected slump in EBIT—currently forecast to drop 49.89% year over year—would likely focus attention on pricing discipline and whether manufacturing footprint actions can restore absorption in coming quarters. Management’s commentary on order books into mid-year, parts and services growth, and any update on precision adoption rates will inform views on how quickly EPS can recover from the forecast $2.05 baseline.

Analyst Opinions

The majority of recent institutional commentary trends constructive, with multiple Buy ratings outweighing Hold or cautious stances. Wells Fargo reiterated a Buy with a $543.00 price target, emphasizing confidence in Deere’s strategic positioning and longer-term earnings power. Barclays also maintained a Buy with a $530.00 target, signaling support for the investment case despite cyclical headwinds. Jefferies reiterated a Hold and a $440.00 target, acknowledging the uncertain operating backdrop that management has highlighted, but not projecting a deterioration that would fundamentally alter the medium-term thesis. Taken together, the ratio skews bullish versus bearish, and the core of the majority view centers on Deere’s durable franchise, pricing and service-led resilience, and the potential for precision-enabled solutions to stabilize margins through the cycle. For the current quarter, the constructive camp expects revenue near consensus and margins under pressure but not structurally impaired, with aftermarket strength and disciplined cost control cushioning the EPS decline toward the forecast $2.05. The focus is on confirmation that order rates are stabilizing and that machine inventories are normalizing by mid-year, setting the stage for a more balanced second half if commodity price volatility abates and precision adoption continues.