Market Review

2025/08/18-2025/08/22 Data Source: iFind

Last week, spot gold opened at $3,326.97 per ounce and reached a high of $3,378.68 per ounce. Spot gold closed at $3,369.82 per ounce on Friday, posting a weekly gain of 1.08%. Spot silver opened at $37.862 per ounce last week, touched a high of $39.059 per ounce, and closed at $38.801 per ounce on Friday, recording a weekly gain of 2.11%.

On Wednesday last week, international gold prices were supported and temporarily recovered above $3,350 per ounce, influenced by news that Federal Reserve Governor Cook was under investigation for mortgage transactions and Trump's call for Cook to resign. The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes showed that most officials believe current interest rates are not far from neutral levels, making it appropriate to remain on hold.

On Friday, Powell indicated at the Jackson Hole central bank annual conference that changes in the baseline outlook and risk balance might make adjusting the Fed's policy stance appropriate, hinting at possible future rate cuts. Following Powell's speech, the dollar index dropped significantly, precious metals prices surged straight up, with international gold prices closing above $3,370 per ounce for the week and international silver prices closing above $38.8 per ounce.

This week, key focus areas include US July core PCE data, second-quarter GDP revised data, latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation, and the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs. Gold price volatility is expected to decline this week, with recommendations for light positioning and flexible entry and exit strategies.

Overseas ETF Holdings

SPDR Gold ETF Holdings As of 2025/08/22, the largest gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) SPDR Gold Trust held 962.21 tons, with a cumulative net reduction of 3.16 tons last week. Data Source: iFind

iShares Silver ETF (SLV) Holdings As of 2025/08/22, iShares Silver ETF held 15,288.82 tons of silver, with a cumulative net increase of 217.51 tons last week. Data Source: iFind

CFTC Gold Positions Data Source: iFind

CFTC Silver Positions Data Source: iFind

Last week, gold ETF and CFTC showed net position reductions, while silver ETF and CFTC showed net position reductions, indicating some divergence between allocation-type and speculative demand for gold and silver. Investors are advised to participate with light positions and flexible entry and exit strategies.

Contango and Backwardation Situations

Last week, gold futures-spot basis fluctuated sideways, reaching a high of 5.63 yuan/gram and closing at 5.40 yuan/gram. With interbank funding rates declining, it is recommended to establish narrowing positions on rallies.

Shanghai Gold Main Contract vs. Spot Premium/Discount (As of August 22, 2025)

Last week, silver futures-spot basis fluctuated sideways, reaching a high of 53 yuan/kilogram and closing at 52 yuan/kilogram. Against the backdrop of low inventory, investors are advised to establish narrowing positions on rallies.

Shanghai Silver Main Contract vs. Spot Premium/Discount (As of August 22, 2025)

Domestic and International Price Spreads

Last week, gold domestic-international price spreads fluctuated upward, touching a low of 0.32 yuan/gram, a high of 1.90 yuan/gram, and closing at 1.60 yuan/gram. Investors are advised to participate cautiously, focusing on narrowing trade opportunities on rallies.

Gold Domestic-International Price Spreads (As of August 22, 2025)

Last week, silver domestic-international price spreads fluctuated sideways, touching a low of 399 yuan/kilogram, a high of 422 yuan/kilogram, and closing at 399 yuan/kilogram. Due to overseas swaps being at relatively low levels, investors are advised to establish narrowing positions on rallies.

Silver Domestic-International Price Spreads (As of August 22, 2025)

Deferred Delivery Situations

Last week, both gold and silver deferred contracts favored short positions. Under conditions of low interest rates and low inventory, investors are advised to watch for shifts in long-short dynamics and appropriately establish long-related positions.

Disclaimer: This report does not constitute investment advice. Investors should independently and prudently assess their own risk tolerance and financial situation to make appropriate investment choices.