Abstract

Marathon Petroleum will report fourth-quarter fiscal results on February 03, 2026, Pre-Market, with consensus pointing to steady revenue and earnings as refining margins and throughput trends shape the quarter’s performance.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, market expectations indicate total revenue of USD 32.10 billion, an estimated adjusted EPS of USD 3.02, and forecast EBIT of USD 2.01 billion, with revenue projected to rise by 03.17% year over year and EPS growth estimated at 176.02%. The company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin are expected to track refining cracks and utilization rates; however, explicit forecast margins are not provided. The core Refining & Marketing operations, inclusive of sales and related operations, are expected to drive results as product demand remains resilient and crack spreads trend supportive. The most promising segment is sales and other operations, projected to remain the largest revenue contributor; last quarter it delivered USD 34.81 billion in revenue, and it continues to anchor overall growth.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Marathon Petroleum recorded revenue of USD 35.85 billion, a gross profit margin of 10.54%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 1.37 billion, a net profit margin of 03.93%, and adjusted EPS of USD 3.01; net profit rose quarter over quarter by 12.66%. A notable financial highlight was EBIT of USD 2.37 billion, which surpassed prior estimates, reflecting favorable refining margins and disciplined cost control. The main business mix was dominated by sales and other operations at USD 34.81 billion revenue, equity-method investments at USD 0.98 billion, and other items that were immaterial to revenue; the sales engine achieved modest year-over-year growth.

Current Quarter Outlook

Refining & Marketing: Core Throughput, Crack Spreads, and Margin Discipline

The primary driver this quarter is the Refining & Marketing segment, where revenue and profitability hinge on utilization, crude slate optimization, and regional crack spreads across gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. With consensus revenue at USD 32.10 billion and EBIT at USD 2.01 billion, the quarter suggests normalized margins following a stronger prior period. Product demand in the United States has remained stable in recent months, and the company’s asset footprint can capture differentials between light and heavy crudes. Operational execution on turnarounds and reliability is crucial; limited downtime keeps throughput high and preserves margin capture. Given last quarter’s gross margin of 10.54%, investors will watch if margins hold near double-digit levels, which would corroborate the forecasted EPS of USD 3.02.

Sales and Related Operations: Scale, Mix, and Distribution Tailwinds

Sales and other operations continue to constitute the largest revenue pool, delivering USD 34.81 billion last quarter, and they remain central to cash generation. The segment benefits from product mix optimization, branded retail network distribution, and wholesale pricing strategies. The revenue outlook ties to refined product demand and regional price spreads; with consensus pointing to USD 32.10 billion this quarter, the business appears set for stable volumes and pricing. Incremental gains may come from higher distillate yields if winter demand remains supportive. The segment’s scale allows for cost leverage across logistics and marketing channels, and disciplined inventory management can limit price volatility impacts on margins.

Stock Price Drivers: Margin Trajectory, Throughput Reliability, and Earnings Quality

The stock’s near-term performance will likely reflect the trajectory of refining margins, especially the Gulf Coast and Mid-Continent crack spreads, and the company’s ability to sustain high utilization. Earnings quality matters: investors will parse the balance between EBIT strength and cash conversion, alongside any working capital swings. The projected EPS of USD 3.02 implies the market expects margins to moderate from the prior quarter’s levels while remaining healthy. Any guidance on throughput rates and planned turnarounds for the subsequent quarter can frame expectations for revenue and margin stability. Deviations from consensus on EBIT or EPS will likely drive the share reaction more than revenue, given the operating leverage in refining.

Analyst Opinions

Most analyst commentary over the past half-year leans constructive, citing resilient refined product demand and efficient operations, with a minority cautioning on margin normalization risks. Positive views emphasize sustained utilization, crack spread support, and robust cost discipline, aligning with the forecast EBIT of USD 2.01 billion and EPS of USD 3.02. Notable institutions highlight the company’s capacity to navigate crude price volatility and optimize its refining slate, suggesting results could come in near consensus with limited downside if operations remain steady. The bullish majority underscores stable demand for diesel and jet fuel and sees the company’s scale and logistics network as advantages for margin defense in a balanced pricing environment.