A-share indices opened higher but drifted lower today, with the Shanghai Composite Index inching up 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.05%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.01%. Total turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges reached approximately 2.15 trillion yuan, showing increased volume compared to the previous session. Declining stocks outnumbered advancers, with more than 3,000 stocks falling across the market. By sector, media, computer, and home appliance segments performed relatively well, while transportation, steel, and building materials sectors pulled back in choppy trading.

The market is currently in a sensitive period ahead of major macroeconomic events, making a range-bound trading approach more prudent than aggressive momentum-chasing. In the near term, the China-U.S. meeting scheduled for September 23–25, combined with capital flow and sentiment disruptions from the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, has raised uncertainty levels. Looking at a longer horizon, the September-to-November window is historically prone to macro volatility. Beyond the upcoming China-U.S. interactions, domestic policy meetings including the Fifth Plenum and Politburo sessions are on the calendar, while overseas events such as the FOMC rate decision and midterm elections are also clustering in this period. With multiple catalysts intertwined, the likelihood of a smooth one-way rally is limited, and the market will likely maintain elevated volatility characteristics. From a medium-to-long-term allocation perspective, confidence in A-shares remains unchanged, and phased buying on dips remains a rational strategy to balance opportunity and risk. On the macro policy front, capital market reforms continue to deepen, with initiatives around registration-based IPO rules, delisting mechanisms, and long-term capital inflows progressively enhancing overall market quality. For investors seeking to capture style rebalancing opportunities while avoiding concentration risk in individual stocks or single tracks, the CSI A500 ETF (159338) offers balanced exposure to industry leaders with stronger allocation resilience, and a phased dip-buying approach may be suitable.

Technology Sector

Technology stocks performed well in early trading today, with the Sci-Tech Innovation AI ETF (589110) tracking index surging over 4% at one point before closing 2.84% higher. One catalyst is Meta's Muse reaching the top of Apple's App Store download charts, sparking a new narrative around trillion-level AI agent applications for edge devices. Its core functionality enables users to execute complex personal tasks across websites and applications, including email drafting, calendar planning, and flight and hotel bookings. In the agent era, CPUs are no longer the supporting cast; this always-on, continuously executing task model could drive higher server-side CPU consumption. Additionally, on September 24, Meta's Connect developer conference is set to unveil a new generation of AI glasses, potentially featuring Muse agent integration that could break through as a killer app, reigniting the edge AI landscape. Another catalyst came from today's opening of Alibaba's Apsara Conference, where Alibaba further clarified its AI development path, shifting from large model capability competition to a full-stack layout of Models plus Agents plus AI Cloud. CEO Eddie Wu stated at the conference that customer AI demand is extremely strong, with the company fully committing to AI infrastructure investment, targeting over 20GW of global data center capacity for Alibaba Cloud by 2032. On the same day, T-Head unveiled the Zhenwu V900, China's most powerful domestically produced AI chip, with computing power tripled from the Zhenwu M890, further strengthening the domestic substitution narrative. While rate hike cycles may continue to pressure growth valuations, history shows that growth opportunities exist even during tightening periods, with sector performance more dependent on industry momentum. The industrial landscape is seeing winners take all, driven by large model factory capabilities such as GPT-related functions where one model orchestrates others for efficiency gains, and model RSI capabilities where models participate in their own training, creating data flywheel effects—stronger models exhibiting superior self-evolution potential. On the Arena platform, a suspected Google Gemini 4.0 Pro has been topping leaderboards with performance rivaling top A/O models, with a qualitative leap in processing speed, signaling models have reached a new platform height with industry momentum remaining robust. AI may represent the greatest technological revolution in history. Near-term macro conditions remain complex, with a possible China-U.S. summit, November midterm elections, and expirations of BIS controls, Chinese rare earth export restrictions, and 301 tariff exemptions all carrying significant renewal uncertainty. Given macro and geopolitical uncertainties, the current rebound may persist for a while, but chasing rapid gains is inadvisable—interested investors may monitor the Sci-Tech Innovation AI ETF (589110).

Real Estate Sector

The real estate sector has rebounded recently, with the Wind Real Estate Index (886057) gaining nearly 10% cumulatively since September 16. This was primarily driven by rumored property policy news circulating in the market, though the veracity of such information remains uncertain. Meanwhile, the People's Daily characterizing the industry's transition to a stock-driven era as a normal shift, coupled with Ministry of Housing statements and new provident fund policy implementation, has signaled a policy-friendly orientation. The sector's current valuations sit at historically low percentiles, with this year's new home and secondary home sales maintaining a degree of resilience, although the transmission from secondary transactions to new home demand remains weak. According to Zhongtai Securities, the real estate market from January to August 2026 remains in a bottoming and repair phase, with cumulative sales value declines continuing to narrow gradually and first-tier city prices stabilizing first, though market recovery still requires time. The 828 policy has further refined presale rules, pre-sale fund supervision, and real estate project financing mechanisms, accelerating adjustments to the industry's development model. As related policies gradually take effect, core city markets are expected to continue their recovery trajectory, with financing resources further concentrating toward quality projects and core cities, while industry supply structures and competitive dynamics keep improving. The sector's short-term rally is jointly influenced by policy quality and market confirmation, and investors should be mindful of fundamental volatility risks. Historical experience shows that real estate sector trading logic remains fairly consistent—positioning for low valuations plus policy expectations—making a wait-and-see entry approach preferable to aggressive chasing. Overall, the sector has entered a phase warranting continuous tracking and observation. Interested investors might consider the Building Materials ETF (159745) and Infrastructure ETF (159619) linked to the real estate chain, but entry timing requires prudence, with further fundamental confirmation signals recommended before committing capital.

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