Morgan Stanley economists have revised their outlook for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, now anticipating two 25-basis-point rate increases this year. The firm's latest projection indicates the central bank will raise rates at its meetings in both September and December.
This marks a significant shift from the bank's previous stance, reaffirmed on August 14th, which had predicted no adjustments to interest rates this year. That earlier forecast had also called for two 25-basis-point cuts during the following year.
"We now expect the Fed to hike by 25 basis points this week with no dissents," said Michael Gapen, the bank's chief US economist, in a research note. "In our view, when the Fed acts, it rarely does so just once." He further predicted that following the December move, the central bank will likely pause its tightening cycle as inflation pressures begin to moderate.