Informed traders disclosed on Thursday that U.S. crude oil loadings destined for Asia in April are projected to reach a three-year peak, as Asian refineries accelerate purchases of American crude to partially offset supply losses from the Middle East.
Trade sources indicate that approximately 60 million barrels of U.S. crude are scheduled for loading next month headed for Asia. With the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz trapping a significant portion of the Gulf region's crude output, Asian refineries are aggressively procuring non-Middle Eastern supplies from all other available sources.
As Asia scrambles to find substitutes for part of the crude it typically sources from its primary procurement region, the Middle East, these purchases are being transacted at a substantial premium to the spot Brent benchmark.
In an analysis earlier this week, Kpler noted that U.S. Midland crude remains competitive for Asia compared to Abu Dhabi's Murban grade, given that Persian Gulf supplies are still constrained.
Kpler highlighted, "This becomes even more significant as buyers shift their focus from immediate, short-term coverage towards securing supplies for May and June demand."
According to market sources in communication with Kpler, Japanese refineries have increased their U.S. crude acquisitions, with approximately 3 million barrels of Midland crude confirmed for April loading.
The energy intelligence firm stated, "Strategic petroleum releases from Japan and South Korea should help mitigate short-term deficits, but will not completely eliminate the need for imports."
Matthew Wu, a senior crude analyst at Kpler, explained that as the Middle East supply shock appears unlikely to resolve quickly, Asian refineries are boosting arbitrage purchases, including those from the United States. Mr. Wu noted that Japanese refineries are likely to purchase at least 13 million barrels of U.S. WTI and Mars crude for April loading, potentially setting a record monthly volume.
According to a report from Argus Media, Thailand's PTT has purchased North Sea Forties crude and Angolan crude for March loading, while South Korea's GS Caltex has bought two cargoes of CPC Blend crude, sourced from Kazakhstan, for April shipment.