Abstract

Baldwin Insurance Group will report quarterly results on February 26, 2026 Post Market, with the market watching for a rebound in profitability as revenue and adjusted EPS are both projected to grow year over year.

Market Forecast

Consensus expectations point to total revenue of 351.99 million for the current quarter, reflecting a 7.77% year-over-year increase, and adjusted EPS of 0.289, implying 13.54% year-over-year growth; the company has not provided specific guidance on gross profit margin or net profit margin for the quarter. Insurance Advisory Solutions remains the largest contributor and is expected to anchor the quarter, with attention on the mix and margin trajectory to stabilize overall earnings. Underwriting, Capacity and Technology Solutions showed last quarter revenue of 147.27 million and is viewed as a key growth driver; company-wide revenue grew 7.80% year over year in the previous quarter.

Last Quarter Review

Baldwin Insurance Group reported last quarter revenue of 365.39 million, a gross profit margin of 25.52%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of −18.73 million, a net profit margin of −5.13%, and adjusted EPS of 0.31, which declined by 6.06% year over year. A notable financial highlight was the modest revenue beat against estimates and a sharp sequential deterioration in net profit, with the quarter-on-quarter net profit change recorded at −491.88%. Insurance Advisory Solutions led the business mix at 158.52 million of revenue, and on a company-level basis revenue increased 7.80% year over year, underscoring resilient top-line momentum amid margin compression.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core revenue engine: Insurance Advisory Solutions

Insurance Advisory Solutions, at 158.52 million last quarter, is the primary revenue anchor and remains central to the quarter’s trajectory. The revenue mix suggests that this unit carries meaningful influence over consolidated gross margin, which stood at 25.52% last quarter; maintaining or improving pricing and fee retention is key to supporting margin stability. With adjusted EPS estimated at 0.289 for the current quarter, the segment’s ability to sustain consistent fee-based revenue and mitigate expense growth should help translate top-line expansion into EPS resilience. Monitoring revenue retention, client renewal cadence, and cross-sell engagement within advisory mandates will be crucial to understanding how the segment underpins forecast EPS growth of 13.54% year over year. Given last quarter’s net margin of −5.13%, execution on operating efficiency and cost control within the advisory portfolio is likely to be a pivotal factor in turning the consolidated margin trajectory, even without explicit gross margin guidance for the current quarter.

Most promising business: Underwriting, Capacity and Technology Solutions

Underwriting, Capacity and Technology Solutions delivered 147.27 million last quarter and stands out as the most promising segment in terms of potential contribution to revenue growth, scale benefits, and operating leverage. The forward revenue estimate for the company at 351.99 million and EBIT estimate at 9.52 million place emphasis on improving unit economics; this segment’s performance will materially influence whether EBIT expansion is realized. Efforts to enhance capacity management, optimize underwriting workflows, and leverage technology could help translate volume into better expense-to-revenue ratios, thereby providing support to margin repair efforts. While segment-specific year-over-year growth figures are not provided, company-level revenue grew 7.80% in the last quarter, implying that strengthening throughput and efficiency in this segment could be an incremental driver of the forecast 7.77% year-over-year revenue increase. A cleaner conversion from revenue to EBIT, alongside tighter underwriting controls and technology-supported process discipline, can help mitigate volatility in net profit, positioning the quarter for a better earnings quality profile than the prior period.

Stock-price drivers this quarter

The primary stock-price driver this quarter is the path of margin stabilization from last quarter’s −5.13% net margin, against a forecast backdrop of rising revenue and adjusted EPS. The EBIT estimate of 9.52 million provides a focal point for investors: achieving or surpassing this level would signal early improvement in operating profitability and strengthen confidence in EPS growth durability. A secondary driver will be the consistency in revenue execution across the top two segments, particularly the balance between advisory fees and underwriting-related revenues, and whether the revenue mix supports more favorable gross margin dynamics than last quarter’s 25.52%. The third driver involves expense discipline and efficiency gains; clearer evidence of cost control, particularly in corporate overhead and segment-level operating expenses, would be material to the near-term valuation narrative given the last quarter’s net loss of −18.73 million. Investors will also weigh the extent to which management commentary frames near-term profitability and whether the expected 13.54% year-over-year EPS growth is accompanied by forward-looking signals that de-risk conversion from EBIT to net income.

Operational quality and earnings conversion

Operational quality will be judged on the conversion of revenue growth into EBIT and net income, with the current projections setting the stage for an earnings recovery narrative. The last quarter’s modest revenue beat suggests the top line has some resilience, but the sharp quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit points to a need for stricter control over cost variability. An incremental lift in EBIT to 9.52 million, if achieved, would indicate that expense containment efforts are taking hold, enabling the company to begin closing the gap toward a normalized net margin. As adjusted EPS is forecast to rise 13.54% year over year, a key test will be whether this growth reflects structural improvements in run-rate profitability rather than transient items; investors will look for cadence in fee income and the scalability of underwriting processes. This quarter’s results will also be interpreted through the lens of cash generation potential, where sustained EBIT momentum, stable gross margins, and reduced volatility in corporate and other line items (−16.87 million last quarter) could reinforce confidence in earnings quality.

Revenue mix, cost discipline, and margin trajectory

The revenue mix last quarter was led by Insurance Advisory Solutions at 43.38% of revenue, followed by Underwriting, Capacity and Technology Solutions at 40.30%, and Main Street Insurance Solutions at 20.93%. This distribution underscores the importance of each unit’s operating efficiency to consolidated margins; the path to margin repair likely requires steady fee retention in advisory alongside scalable processes in underwriting. With adjusted EPS projected to advance year over year, maintaining a prudent cost baseline is essential to ensure that growth in revenue translates into durable net income. Given last quarter’s net margin of −5.13%, small improvements in expense ratios can have outsized effects on bottom-line outcomes, especially if segment contributions remain balanced. The company’s ability to limit volatility within corporate and other functions, which recorded −16.87 million, will be watched closely as an additional lever in strengthening margin visibility.

EBIT and EPS alignment with revenue growth

A central analytical focus is the alignment between revenue growth of 7.77% year over year and the expected improvements in EBIT and adjusted EPS. The EBIT estimate at 9.52 million sets a concrete benchmark; hitting this level would indicate that operating leverage is beginning to materialize in step with revenue expansion. EPS growth of 13.54% year over year implies that, at least at the earnings-per-share line, the company has capacity to translate revenue gains into shareholder-level metrics. The degree of alignment between EBIT expansion and EPS improvement will be an indicator of whether non-operating items, tax effects, or share count dynamics are influencing the EPS trajectory. Investors will look for clarity on expense lines and any one-off items that could obscure the underlying run-rate, as the prior quarter’s net loss complicates direct comparisons. Progress here could signal the start of a more consistent earnings profile, even if gross margin guidance is not provided.

Main Street Insurance Solutions and portfolio balance

Main Street Insurance Solutions contributed 76.48 million last quarter, rounding out the core portfolio balance. While not the largest unit, its steady contribution is relevant to smoothing revenue variability and supporting consolidated operating metrics. Portfolio balance across the three primary segments can help manage earnings volatility, especially when one segment faces timing or mix-related pressures. The interplay between this segment and the larger advisory and underwriting units can inform gross margin resilience and the degree of diversification across revenue sources. In the context of a forecasted EPS increase, stable performance from Main Street Insurance Solutions can provide additive support to the consolidated earnings trajectory, even if its leverage to EBIT is less pronounced than the larger segments. Consistency in this unit’s revenue will be an important component in achieving the projected 351.99 million sales target.

Sequential dynamics and what to watch

Sequential dynamics are central given last quarter’s −491.88% quarter-on-quarter change in net profit, which highlights sensitivity in the bottom line. The current setup—with revenue expected to grow year over year and adjusted EPS projected to increase—suggests that stabilization efforts may already be underway. However, the key watch items include segment-level operating efficiency, conversion of revenue into EBIT, and the reduction of volatility in corporate and other items. Management’s commentary on run-rate costs, renewal cycles, and the tactical approach to improving margin consistency will be important for assessing near-term valuation implications. If the company demonstrates even modest improvements in operating ratio and clarity on expense control, the path to normalized margin could become more visible, reinforcing the earnings preview narrative. Conversely, if expense variability persists, the quarter may still deliver EPS growth but with a less convincing signal on long-term margin repair.

Analyst Opinions

The ratio of bullish versus bearish opinions collected during the period favors the bullish side, with 100% of surfaced institutional commentary indicating a positive stance and no bearish views recorded. Bank of America Securities, through analyst Joshua Shanker, maintained a Buy rating on Baldwin Insurance Group, underscoring confidence in the company’s capacity to grow earnings while improving operating metrics. The projected 13.54% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS and the 7.77% year-over-year rise in revenue align with a constructive near-term framework, as the company seeks to convert top-line traction into better EBIT and net margin outcomes. From an investment narrative perspective, the Buy stance is consistent with the view that the company can address last quarter’s net loss through improved cost discipline and segment-level efficiency while maintaining growth in its largest revenue streams. The absence of bearish views in the reviewed period suggests that the majority of institutional commentary anticipates incremental improvement in profitability measures, particularly if EBIT meets or exceeds the 9.52 million estimate and revenue comes in near the 351.99 million projection. Ultimately, the core of the bullish argument is that the expected EPS and revenue growth—combined with stable performance from the leading segments—can support a gradual recovery in margins, smoothing the volatility observed in the prior quarter’s net profit.