Earning Preview: HP Inc Q1 FY2026 revenue is expected to increase by 3.80%, and institutional views are predominantly bearish

Abstract

HP Inc will report fiscal first-quarter results on February 24, 2026 after market (Post Market); investors will focus on whether revenue can meet an estimated $13.87 billion with non-GAAP EPS near $0.76, as management’s guidance range and recent product updates frame expectations for early-year demand and margins.

Market Forecast

Consensus compiled from current-quarter estimates points to HP Inc delivering approximately $13.87 billion in revenue, up 3.80% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS around $0.76, up 2.66% year over year; the company’s stated range is $0.73 to $0.81 for non-GAAP EPS, which brackets the market’s midpoint. Forecast commentary on gross margin and net margin has not been quantified, so investors are anchoring near last quarter’s baselines while watching mix and pricing signals into the print and PC lines. On the operating front, management’s guidance and recent product cadence suggest the core PC-related franchise should be stable into the quarter, with demand shaped by early AI-enabled refresh cycles and commercial budgets normalizing after the holidays; printing is expected to provide recurring profit contribution while remaining sensitive to supplies mix and pricing. Within this setup, the most closely watched growth engine is Personal Systems, which generated $10.35 billion last quarter and comprised 70.72% of revenue; with total company sales forecast to rise 3.80% year over year this quarter, the segment’s shipment trajectory, pricing, and AI-led refresh adoption will be key determinants of whether growth surpasses that overall pace.

Last Quarter Review

HP Inc’s prior quarter delivered $14.64 billion in revenue (up 4.16% year over year), a 20.23% gross margin, $795.00 million in GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company, a 5.43% net profit margin, and non-GAAP (adjusted) EPS of $0.93 (flat year over year). One notable financial highlight was operating performance: EBIT came in at $1.17 billion, declining 2.58% year over year as pricing and mix offset unit trends. On business mix, Personal Systems contributed $10.35 billion (70.72% of revenue) and Printing contributed $4.27 billion (29.14% of revenue), underscoring how quarterly results are primarily linked to PC units, average selling prices, and supplies monetization.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Personal Systems: early AI-PC refresh and commercial demand cadence

The Personal Systems portfolio remains the principal driver of near-term revenue and earnings. At January events, HP Inc highlighted new products aimed at AI-enabled workflows, including the latest EliteBook X G2 series announced on January 6, 2026, targeting knowledge workers with on-device intelligence features. This launch timing helps frame the first fiscal quarter narrative: early pipeline signaling from channel partners typically coalesces after the calendar-year reset, and commercial bid cycles tend to pick up in late January and February. With consensus revenue for the quarter implying 3.80% year-over-year growth, unit volumes do not need to inflect aggressively for the company to meet projections; instead, the mix of premium and commercial configurations, pricing discipline, and attach of services will be important. Investors will also parse commentary around inventory positions and lead times; if channel inventories are balanced and pricing remains stable, the segment can sustain modest year-over-year expansion while maintaining margin integrity. A key swing factor is the pace of AI-PC adoption: even if absolute volumes remain measured in early quarters, better average selling prices and services attach can support revenue consistency and potentially help offset cost pressures.

Printing and supplies monetization: security, attach rates, and price discipline

In print, the company continues to emphasize platform security and lifecycle value capture. On February 4, 2026, HP Inc extended a multiyear license for Karamba Security’s XGuard software across printer products, reinforcing a layered security model designed to harden firmware and prevent unapproved code execution and memory-manipulation attacks. This matters for enterprise deployments, where device hardening and fleet management influence win rates and support higher-value configurations. Near-term, the quarter’s print trajectory will likely hinge on supplies monetization and hardware sell-in pacing following holiday promotions. Management’s pricing discipline, combined with a stable installed base, can support sustained contribution from print even if hardware units are restrained; however, commentary on supplies mix, channel inventory normalization, and any elasticity signals will be scrutinized. Given the prior quarter’s 29.14% revenue contribution from Printing ($4.27 billion), this business is still crucial to overall margin delivery; positive updates on security-led differentiation and contractual print could provide a modest offset to PC variability.

Quarter-specific stock drivers: guidance adherence, leadership update, and capital returns

The principal near-term stock driver remains management’s ability to deliver within the non-GAAP EPS guidance range of $0.73 to $0.81, disclosed on February 3, 2026, while preserving margin stability against mix shifts. Investors will look for alignment between this EPS corridor and the consensus midpoint (~$0.76), as any adjustments to shipment outlooks, component cost trends, or price realization can quickly affect the trajectory of both gross margin and operating expense leverage. A further factor this quarter is leadership continuity: on February 3, 2026, HP Inc named Bruce Broussard as interim CEO, and investors will be attentive to any updates on strategic execution cadence and capital allocation priorities under this transition. Capital returns also remain in focus. On January 27, 2026, the company declared a cash dividend of $0.3000 per share, reaffirming its policy consistency and the expected cash-generation profile. With EBIT for the prior quarter at $1.17 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $0.93, free cash flow commentary and any repurchase color can influence the equity story even if headline revenue lands near expectations. Finally, macro commentary may temper enthusiasm: a January 21, 2026 assessment from a major sell-side firm pointed to caution signs across enterprise hardware spending as cost sensitivity weighs on near-term deployments despite longer-term AI benefits. Against this backdrop, investors will weigh the durability of commercial PC demand, the elasticity of print consumables, and the company’s execution on pricing and cost control.

Analyst Opinions

During the period from January 1, 2026 through February 17, 2026, bearish views dominate the captured opinions specific to HP Inc, with bearish comprising 100% and bullish 0% among directional ratings. On February 15, 2026, Barclays downgraded HP Inc to Sell and set a price target of $18.00, reflecting concerns embedded in the rating about the company’s near-term return profile under current demand and pricing dynamics. While individual rationales vary by firm, the Sell stance effectively signals skepticism that anticipated early-year PC demand and print monetization will drive upside versus consensus in this reporting window. Complementing that tone, a January 21, 2026 note from a leading research house flagged caution across enterprise hardware budgets as rising cost sensitivity tempers deployment, implying a more selective purchasing environment early in the calendar year. Interpreting these views together, the prevailing analyst posture sets a high bar for upside surprise: delivery within the EPS guidance band without a meaningful beat may not dislodge the bearish narrative unless management can demonstrate a clearer path to accelerating growth beyond the low single-digit revenue trend. On the call, investors following the bearish camp will likely focus on several points of validation: whether Personal Systems growth can exceed the company-level 3.80% year-over-year revenue trajectory despite seasonal patterns, whether print supplies show signs of sustained elasticity or price pushback, and whether operating expense efficiencies can fully offset any mix-related gross margin pressure. Additionally, the recent leadership transition will invite questions on the continuity of capital allocation and product roadmaps; bearish analysts will be alert for any indications of elongated sales cycles or promotional intensity that could weigh on margin. The bearish perspective does not rule out stabilization; rather, it anchors on the notion that upside catalysts may take additional time to translate into measurable revenue acceleration. For HP Inc to challenge that view in this quarter’s report, the combination of AI-enabled device momentum, disciplined pricing, steady supplies attach, and precise cost control would need to coalesce into either a clean revenue beat on the $13.87 billion estimate or clear guidance that implies stronger run-rate performance into the next fiscal quarter. As such, the majority opinion will evaluate not only the print and PC unit trajectories but also the tangible impact of recently announced product and security initiatives on order pipelines and margins in the near term.