Gogo Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary and Q&A Highlights: Strong Equipment Shipments and Product Innovation

Earnings Call
Yesterday

[Management View]
Gogo reported $224 million in total revenue for Q3 2025, down 1% YoY and sequentially. Service revenue was $190 million, up 130% YoY but down 2% sequentially. Equipment revenue was $33.6 million, up 80% YoY and 5% sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA was $56.2 million with a 25% margin. Free cash flow was $31 million, totaling $94 million YTD. Net income was negative $1.9 million. Cash and short-term investments were $1.336 billion. ATG aircraft online were 6,529, down 7% YoY and 3% sequentially. ATG ARPU declined 3% YoY and 1% sequentially. ATG equipment shipments were 437 units, an all-time high. GEO broadband AOL was 1,343, up 14% YoY and 2% sequentially. FCC reimbursement was $6.6 million in Q3, with $26 million remaining receivable. The Galileo pipeline doubled to approximately 1,000 units. A five-year federal contract for 5G, LEO, and GEO services was awarded. Over $30 million in annualized synergies were realized.

[Outlook]
Revenue for 2025 is expected at the high end of $870 million to $910 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected at the high end of $200 million to $220 million. Free cash flow is expected at the high end of $60 million to $90 million. $40 million will be invested in strategic initiatives post-FCC reimbursement. Q4 2025 free cash flow is expected to be the lowest of the year due to strategic investments and inventory purchases. The FCC reimbursement program remains on track. The ATG fleet continues transitioning to advanced and C1 hardware. Milgov's revenue share is expected to rise to 20% over the long term.

[Financial Performance]
- Total revenue: $224 million, down 1% YoY and sequentially
- Service revenue: $190 million, up 130% YoY, down 2% sequentially
- Equipment revenue: $33.6 million, up 80% YoY, up 5% sequentially
- Adjusted EBITDA: $56.2 million, 25% margin
- Free cash flow: $31 million, $94 million YTD
- Net income: Negative $1.9 million
- Cash and short-term investments: $1.336 billion
- ATG aircraft online: 6,529, down 7% YoY, down 3% sequentially
- ATG ARPU: Down 3% YoY, down 1% sequentially
- ATG equipment shipments: 437 units, up 8% sequentially
- GEO broadband AOL: 1,343, up 14% YoY, up 2% sequentially

[Q&A Highlights]
Question 1: Could you detail the outlook for Q4 2025, particularly regarding adjusted EBITDA and ATG transition?
Answer: ATG pressure continues, impacting high-margin revenue. Revenue is expected to be up, driven by equipment shipments with lower margins. Significant 5G testing will compress gross margin. OpEx will be higher due to 5G testing. Record advanced shipments and successful 5G rollout are positive signs.

Question 2: How is the transition from Classic to C1 and the momentum on 5G and Galileo expected to play out in 2026?
Answer: The transition is mixed, with some customers upgrading to 5G and others to C1. The C1 is a placeholder product, and MRO partners are facilitating upgrades. 5G ARPU is expected to be twice that of Classic customers, indicating potential upside.

Question 3: How do you see ARPU trending in the first half of next year with the introduction of higher ARPU services like 5G?
Answer: 5G ARPU is expected to be twice that of Classic customers, indicating potential upside. Price flexibility within plans will help manage transitions. Higher service levels with 5G will attract customers to premium offers.

Question 4: How much of the implied Q4 EBITDA headwind is related to LEO 5G investments versus ATG pressures?
Answer: The headwind is split evenly between ATG pressure and increased OpEx, with a larger portion related to 5G testing.

Question 5: Are you seeing any impacts from the government shutdown on FCC reimbursement or other areas like Milgov?
Answer: The shutdown has slowed down some government approvals but has not significantly impacted business or revenue outlook.

[Sentiment Analysis]
Analysts were focused on understanding the detailed outlook for Q4 2025, particularly regarding adjusted EBITDA and the transition of ATG customers. Management's tone was cautiously optimistic, emphasizing the positive momentum in equipment shipments, 5G rollout, and strategic investments.

[Quarterly Comparison]
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | YoY Change | QoQ Change |
|-------------------------|---------------|---------------|--------------|--------------|
| Total Revenue | $224 million | $226 million | -1% | -1% |
| Service Revenue | $190 million | $194 million | +130% | -2% |
| Equipment Revenue | $33.6 million | $32 million | +80% | +5% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $56.2 million | $55 million | N/A | +2% |
| Free Cash Flow | $31 million | $30 million | N/A | +3% |
| Net Income | -$1.9 million | -$2 million | N/A | +5% |
| Cash and Investments | $1.336 billion| $1.330 billion| N/A | +0.5% |
| ATG Aircraft Online | 6,529 | 6,730 | -7% | -3% |
| ATG ARPU | N/A | N/A | -3% | -1% |
| ATG Equipment Shipments | 437 | 405 | N/A | +8% |
| GEO Broadband AOL | 1,343 | 1,316 | +14% | +2% |

[Risks and Concerns]
- Continued pressure on ATG service revenue due to customer transitions and competitive dynamics.
- Increased OpEx from strategic investments in 5G and Galileo.
- Potential impacts from government shutdown on regulatory approvals and FCC reimbursement timing.
- Volatility in ATG AOL, particularly among Classic fleet customers.

[Final Takeaway]
Gogo's Q3 2025 performance was marked by strong equipment shipments and significant progress in product innovation, particularly in 5G and Galileo. While revenue was slightly down, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow exceeded expectations. The company is well-positioned for future growth with strategic investments and new product launches. However, challenges remain with ATG service revenue pressure and increased OpEx. Management remains cautiously optimistic, focusing on executing strategic initiatives and leveraging new product momentum to drive long-term growth.

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