Hong Kong Market Movement | Dairy Stocks Defy Market Downturn, Citigroup Predicts Dairy Anti-Subsidy Measures to Help Alleviate Domestic Raw Milk Oversupply

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7 hours ago

Dairy stocks bucked the broader market trend to move higher. As of the time of writing, CH MODERN D (01117) rose 3.8% to HKD 1.64, while YOURAN DAIRY (09858) increased by 3.44% to HKD 5.11. A research report from Citigroup noted that the Ministry of Commerce recently announced the implementation of provisional anti-subsidy measures on specific dairy products imported from the European Union starting December 23, imposing provisional tariffs ranging from 21.9% to 42.7%, primarily targeting products such as fresh cheese, curd, and cream. According to Citigroup's estimates, the EU accounts for 20.7% of the import volume in the relevant product categories; given that domestic production costs are lower than imports, it is anticipated that the EU's market share in these products will be replaced by domestic solid dairy product processing operations, which is expected to help alleviate the domestic oversupply of raw milk to some extent. Citigroup believes that the development of domestic solid dairy companies, led by YOURAN DAIRY's major customer Yili, will be stimulated, predicting that these measures could boost domestic demand for raw milk, and expressing confidence that its high-end and specialty dairy products are well-positioned to meet the downstream consumption upgrade demand. Huachuang Securities pointed out that in terms of the measures' intensity, the generally applied ad valorem subsidy rate of nearly 30% significantly increases the cost of the relevant EU imports; regarding implementation timeliness, the policy takes effect immediately the day after its announcement, demonstrating the relevant authorities' determination to stabilize the market, with the impact expected to be quickly transmitted to the market.

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