Abstract

Artisan Partners Asset Management will report first-quarter 2026 results after market close on April 28, 2026; this preview reviews last quarter’s performance, consolidates the current-quarter market estimates, and highlights the key revenue and earnings drivers investors should watch.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the first quarter of 2026 points to revenue of 303.46 million US dollars, up 8.42% year over year, with adjusted EPS estimated at 0.94, up 24.25% year over year; EBIT is projected at 101.44 million US dollars, up 22.36% year over year. There is no explicit margin guidance for the quarter, but the revenue-to-EBIT spread implies year-over-year margin expansion.

The main business is expected to be led by management fees that track average assets under management and fee rates; given the recent monthly AUM disclosures for January, February, and March, the outlook suggests revenue normalization after the fourth quarter’s performance-fee spike. The most promising incremental driver remains performance fees when portfolio returns exceed applicable hurdles; in the fourth quarter of 2025, performance fees were 29.10 million US dollars, roughly doubling from the prior year’s level, underscoring the earnings torque potential when investment performance is strong.

Last Quarter Review

For the fourth quarter of 2025 (fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025), Artisan Partners Asset Management delivered revenue of 335.50 million US dollars, a gross profit margin of 50.85%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 94.80 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 28.25%, and adjusted EPS of 1.26, up 20.00% year over year; revenue growth was 12.96% year over year.

A key highlight was the step-up in operating profitability: adjusted EBIT of 134.80 million US dollars grew 23.33% year over year, handily exceeding revenue growth and indicating cost discipline and operating leverage. In terms of revenue mix, management fees contributed 306.40 million US dollars, while performance fees were 29.10 million US dollars and approximately doubled from the prior year’s quarterly level, helping to lift revenue and margins even as net client outflows persisted in certain strategies.

Current Quarter Outlook

Management Fees and Average AUM

The management-fee line remains the foundation of quarterly revenue, and it typically scales with average assets under management and fee rates. Based on preliminary updates through March, average first-quarter assets appear consistent with an exit AUM around approximately 173.00 billion US dollars, which should underpin the management-fee run-rate entering the print. Relative to the prior quarter’s 306.40 million US dollars in management fees, the first quarter tends to reflect typical seasonal reset dynamics and the absence of year-end performance fees embedded in the fourth quarter, supporting the consensus call for revenue of 303.46 million US dollars.

Sequentially, the market expects revenue to step down from 335.50 million US dollars as performance fees normalize, while year-over-year growth of 8.42% signals a healthier baseline than a year earlier due to higher average AUM and a stable fee mix. The mix of client flows and market appreciation matters for fee capture; last year, equity strategies saw net outflows while Credit and Alternative strategies generated net inflows, and even if those patterns persist near term, management-fee stability should be supported by market levels and the breadth of vehicles the company deploys. In this setup, management fees remain a relatively predictable driver of topline and a key anchor for EBIT and EPS, with the quarterly volatility concentrated in variable fees and seed investment marks.

Performance Fees and Operating Leverage

Performance fees were the notable swing factor in the fourth quarter at 29.10 million US dollars, and historically they have been concentrated around year-end. Consensus for the first quarter implies a reversion toward a management-fee-driven revenue mix, which explains the projected sequential decline in revenue despite year-over-year growth. That said, variability remains a source of upside if investment performance and fund structures enable earlier crystallization of fees or if hurdle rates are exceeded more broadly than modeled.

Operating leverage is expected to remain in focus. With revenue projected to rise 8.42% year over year and EBIT projected to rise 22.36%, the implied EBIT margin sits roughly in the low-30% area for the quarter, up from about the high-20% range a year earlier, pointing to margin expansion and stronger drop-through. The spread between revenue and EBIT growth suggests the compensation ratio and other operating cost lines are being tightly managed, allowing a larger share of incremental fees to translate into earnings; that dynamic is what underpins the 24.25% year-over-year growth outlook for adjusted EPS to 0.94. If performance fees surprise to the upside, the operating leverage could be even more pronounced due to the high incremental margins typically associated with variable-fee revenue.

What Will Move the Stock This Quarter

Investors will likely key on the cadence of monthly AUM and any commentary on flows across teams, as these drive the forward management-fee base. Preliminary AUM disclosures for January, February, and March suggest that quarter-end levels were around 173.00 billion US dollars; confirmation of average AUM and the mix of market returns versus flows during the quarter will help refine run-rate fee forecasts for the second quarter. Any updates on performance dispersion across strategies will also color expectations for prospective performance fees, which could affect the second half’s earnings trajectory.

Margin commentary will matter because consensus embeds year-over-year EBIT growth that outpaces revenue growth. Investors will be watching the compensation and benefits ratio, distribution expenses, and general operating expenses for evidence that efficiency is holding as assets have risen from year-ago levels. Management’s stance on capital returns will also be scrutinized. Dividends remain a core component of the total return profile, and while a special annual dividend was declared alongside the fourth quarter release, the regular payout cadence for the first quarter and any color on future distributions could sway sentiment around sustainable cash yield.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of published opinions in the period shows a bullish tilt. Across the counted updates, the ratio of bullish to bearish views is 3 to 0, reflecting repeated positive stances despite modest adjustments to targets. RBC Capital maintained an Outperform/Buy-equivalent view through multiple updates, including on January 21, February 6, and April 21, 2026; on April 21, RBC trimmed its price target to 48 US dollars from 50 US dollars while reiterating its positive rating. That sequence indicates supportive analyst conviction heading into the print, particularly as the firm continues to expect year-over-year gains in revenue, EBIT, and EPS.

The underlying rationale in the market’s bullish case aligns with the forecast profile for the first quarter. Consensus implies that management-fee stability, combined with cost control, should deliver year-over-year margin expansion even as performance fees normalize from the fourth quarter’s unusually strong contribution. Where fourth-quarter results benefited from 29.10 million US dollars of performance fees and an adjusted operating margin over 40%, this quarter’s setup relies more on a larger average AUM base and operating efficiency to drive EBIT and EPS higher. Analysts emphasizing this mix see upside if either flows stabilize in previously pressured equity strategies or if variable fees exceed implied expectations due to better-than-modeled investment performance.

In the near term, the bullish camp is focused on three validation points. The first is confirmation that revenue of around 303.46 million US dollars lands within the targeted range alongside EBIT of roughly 101.44 million US dollars, which would corroborate the year-over-year margin expansion embedded in estimates. The second is delivery of adjusted EPS near 0.94, implying 24.25% growth and demonstrating persistent operating leverage. The third is constructive forward commentary about AUM trends early in the second quarter and the durability of fee rates, both of which would support the sustainability of better earnings power. These elements, taken together, underpin the majority’s favorable stance ahead of the company’s after-market release on April 28, 2026.