A research report from Northeast Securities indicates that with continuous technological advancements and decreasing costs, AI-powered AR glasses are expected to capture nearly two-thirds of the market share by 2028. Their display functionality, which significantly enhances daily convenience, is projected to make them the mainstream product, surpassing AI camera glasses. Major technology companies plan to launch multiple AI glasses models between 2026 and 2027. The showcase of various AI+AR glasses at CES 2026 further supports the view that they are poised to become the dominant product category. The potential user base for AI glasses is expanding from traditional eyewear users to individuals with normal vision, meaning AI+AR glasses must meet two core needs: vision correction and display capabilities. The primary viewpoints from Northeast Securities are as follows:
AI camera glasses currently represent the mainstream product, but AI+AR glasses are anticipated to surpass them in market share by 2028. Strong sales of Ray-Ban Meta are driving sustained growth in AI glasses shipments. Forecasts for 2025 have been revised upward from 5.5 million units to 7 million units, and for 2026, from 11 million units to 18 million units. By 2029, the AI glasses market is expected to reach a scale of 100 billion yuan, growing to 149.996 billion yuan by 2030.
AI glasses can be categorized into three types: AI audio glasses, AI camera glasses, and AI+AR glasses. In 2024, AI camera glasses held over 90% of the market share. However, as technology continues to evolve and costs decline, AI+AR glasses are projected to capture nearly two-thirds of the market by 2028, becoming the mainstream product due to their display functions that greatly enhance everyday convenience.
Meta and Alibaba are actively developing AI+AR glasses. Multiple leading tech companies are expected to achieve mass production of various AI glasses models by 2026. (1) Meta launched its first consumer-grade AI+AR glasses, the Meta Ray-Ban Display, positioned as a display-focused AI device paired with an sEMG neuro-muscular wristband. Market reception has exceeded expectations since its release, leading to the postponement of international expansion plans as the company prioritizes fulfilling orders in the US market. (2) The Quark AI Glasses S1 utilizes dual optical engines and binocular display, offering expanded functionality through integrated ecosystem services. The product has seen sustained strong sales, prompting the addition of a new assembly line at the Luxshare factory, with full production capacity expected to be realized this January. (3) Leading technology firms such as Google, Amazon, Apple, and ByteDance plan to introduce multiple AI glasses models between 2026 and 2027. The display of numerous AI+AR glasses at CES 2026 further confirms their potential to become the mainstream product.
The potential user base for AI glasses is expanding to include individuals with normal vision, while AI and AR glasses brands are also paying more attention to traditional eyewear users. For example, in Shenzhen, Quark, Rokid, and XREAL have 86, 81, and 24 offline experience stores respectively, of which 62, 45, and 20 are traditional optical shops. However, for traditional glasses wearers, the key factor influencing their adoption of AI+AR glasses is whether the product can meet the essential need for vision correction while additionally providing display functionality. This places higher demands on lens manufacturing technology.
The challenge of integrating waveguide lenses with prescription lenses needs to be addressed urgently. Research and development capability and customization capacity are building a competitive moat for leading lens manufacturers. Waveguide technology is considered the most promising optical solution. Both Rokid and Quark use plano-concave lenses to tackle the structural mismatch between waveguide plates and prescription lenses. Regarding the integration method, Rokid employs a magnetic snap-on solution, while Quark uses an integrated bonding solution. The integrated bonding solution offers superior display performance and wearing comfort and is expected to gradually become the mainstream choice for combining waveguide and prescription lenses. This integrated approach requires solving optical challenges arising from the multi-layer structure bonding of AI+AR glasses lenses, as well as challenges associated with increased customization demands. This necessitates strong R&D capabilities and customized production capacity from lens manufacturers.
Risk提示: Global sales of AI glasses may fall short of expectations; The adoption rate of AI+AR glasses may be lower than anticipated.