Interim reports for listed brokerages in 2026 have begun to be released. As of July 8th, two leading securities firms, Guotai Haitong and China Merchants Securities, have already issued their half-year performance forecasts, showing outstanding net profit figures.
In fact, spurred by positive factors such as active market trading, realized returns on science and innovation investments, and the expansion of international business, many institutions have made optimistic forecasts for the securities industry's first-half performance. Looking ahead, with the continued accumulation of multiple favorable factors, the brokerage sector is expected to see further valuation recovery.
Strong Performance from Leaders Signals Industry Optimism
On the evening of July 7th, China Merchants Securities released a performance pre-announcement, forecasting a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 10.0 billion and 11.0 billion yuan for the first half of 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 93% to 112%. Notably, this net profit scale is already close to its full-year 2024 level.
Regarding the reasons for the performance growth, China Merchants Securities stated that the company is anchored to its strategic development goal of "building a technology-leading, synergy-driven leading Chinese investment bank." Guided by the "Five Major Initiatives," it has deepened its layout and precise efforts in areas such as technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance. It has also implemented an operational philosophy focusing on intensive, digital-intelligent, comprehensive, and internationalized development, achieving record-high operating performance for the period.
Earlier, as the first half-year 2026 performance forecast in the securities industry, Guotai Haitong's announcement indicated that for the first half of this year, it expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders of between 20.003 billion and 20.511 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27% to 30% (previous year's data included negative goodwill from a merger). It also expects a net profit attributable to the parent's shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of between 19.249 billion and 19.757 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 164% to 171%, setting a new historical high for the company's half-year performance and refreshing the industry's historical record for half-year results.
On a quarterly basis, Guotai Haitong's second-quarter performance was particularly impressive. The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent of 13.615 billion to 14.123 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 290% to 304%, and a sequential increase of 113% to 121% compared to the first quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be 13.538 billion to 14.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 240% to 252%, and a sequential increase of 137% to 146%, also setting a new historical high for the company's single-quarter performance.
Regarding the main reasons for the performance pre-increase, Guotai Haitong stated that in the first half of 2026, the company coordinated the advancement of integration, synergy, and deepening reforms. It focused on building a full-chain advantage in "investment + investment banking + investment research" services to foster new quality productive forces, continuously improved the level of comprehensive financial services, and accelerated the release of integration synergies. Revenues from wealth management, investment banking, institutional and trading, and investment management businesses increased significantly year-on-year, with operating performance reaching a historical high for the period, laying a solid foundation for accelerating the building of a first-class investment bank with international competitiveness and market leadership.
The strong performance growth of these two leading brokerages has injected another "shot in the arm" for the upward trend in the securities industry's prosperity.
CITIC Securities' non-bank research team commented on this, stating that the performance forecasts release three positive signals for the securities industry: First, mergers and acquisitions have moved from "speculating on expectations" to "delivering profits." The large-project coverage capability and leverage multiplier effect post-merger are expected to systematically elevate the ROE center of brokerages. Second, the sustainability of industry prosperity may exceed expectations, with brokerage, investment banking, and proprietary trading all expanding simultaneously and reinforcing each other, indicating an upward shift in the operating center of leading brokerages. Third, diversified revenue streams are fully opening up. Brokerages are gradually transitioning from a single Beta-driven model to a compound growth model.
Evolving Industry Profit Models Drive Valuation Recovery
In fact, driven by positive factors such as active market trading (a significant year-on-year increase in average daily stock and fund transaction volume), realized returns on science and innovation investments (IPO recovery + significant floating profits from follow-on investments), and the expansion of international business, several research institutions had already held an optimistic view on brokerages' first-half performance.
China International Capital Corporation (CICC)'s non-bank research predicts that 42 listed brokerages achieved a net profit attributable to the parent of 142.5 billion yuan in the first half, a year-on-year increase of 50%; adjusted revenue reached 338.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37%. Brokerage business contributed 40% of the incremental adjusted revenue, up 58% year-on-year; proprietary trading contributed 29% of the incremental adjusted revenue, up 23% year-on-year. It is estimated that net income from interest, asset management, and investment banking grew by 65%, 28%, and 29% year-on-year, respectively, contributing 14%, 7%, and 5% to the incremental adjusted revenue.
Huaxi Securities' chief non-bank analyst Luo Huizhou estimates that A-share listed brokerages achieved an overall adjusted operating income of 1.757 trillion yuan in Q2 2026, a year-on-year increase of 27% and a sequential increase of 12%. For the first half of 2026, A-share listed brokerages are estimated to have achieved an overall adjusted operating income of 3.328 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%.
Guolian Minsheng Securities expects that in the first half of 2026, the brokerage sector's brokerage business revenue will increase by 59% year-on-year, investment business by 22%, and investment banking business by 43%.
Alongside the high performance growth, the valuation of the brokerage sector remains at a historical low, providing room for valuation recovery. Research from Sinolink Securities shows that the current price-to-book ratio and price-to-earnings ratio of the securities sector still have significant room for recovery compared to the highs of 2024-2025. The dynamic P/E ratios of most high-quality leading brokerages are only around 10 times, less than half of the sector's P/E ratio at its peak.
In the view of industry insiders, behind the expected high growth in brokerages' interim report performance lies not only the short-term catalyst of active market trading but also the result of profound changes in the industry's underlying profit logic. With the continuous accumulation of multiple favorable factors, the brokerage sector is expected to see valuation recovery.
GF Securities stated that currently, primary investment in brokerages has formed a dual-track model of "private equity subsidiary fundraising + alternative subsidiary follow-on investment/direct investment." Looking at follow-on investments in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) and ChiNext, the floating profits from brokerages' follow-on investments in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board have already reached 6.6 billion yuan this year, far exceeding the total from 2022 to 2025. These floating profits were contributed by 8 brokerages, indicating a significant increase in concentration. Private equity fundraising, investment, management, and exit have all begun to recover. Alternative subsidiaries, through proprietary fund investments, can better serve and bind with high-quality enterprises, capturing growth opportunities in emerging industries, and there is still room for the proportion of direct investments to increase in the future.
Shenwan Hongyuan added that as brokerages' high-growth expectations for Q2 2026 performance materialize and capital pressures are cleared, the short-term Beta logic for brokerages is gradually being realized. Future focus should be on high-quality brokerages with their own Alpha in three long-term logics: international business expansion & leverage increase, science and innovation investment & investment banking linkage, and wealth management transformation.