On April 15, gold prices exhibited a volatile but upward-trending session. The Asian and European trading hours saw limited movement, with prices hovering below the 4800 level, allowing short positions within the suggested range to capture minor gains. During the US session, however, prices began to climb, breaking through the 4800 barrier and reaching a high of $4846 before closing at $4840, resulting in a daily bullish candlestick.
On Wednesday, April 15, comments from the US President hinting at potential US-Iran negotiations resuming within the next two days, alongside remarks suggesting the conflict was "nearing its end," provided significant bullish momentum. The prospect of renewed talks alleviated market fears of an uncontrolled escalation in hostilities, serving as the primary driver for gold's advance. This was further supported by US PPI data falling short of expectations, shifting market expectations for Federal Reserve policy from concerns over interest rate hikes to a more wait-and-see stance, thereby re-pricing gold's safe-haven and inflation-hedge attributes.
The geopolitical landscape appears to be transitioning from military posturing to diplomatic engagement—evidenced by signals of renewed negotiations, discussions on extending ceasefires, and agreement for direct talks between other regional actors. These developments suggest the Middle East situation may be moving towards de-escalation. Looking forward, the trajectory of gold will largely depend on the evolution of these geopolitical negotiations.
From a technical perspective, gold's breach above the 4800 resistance level during the US session disrupted the potential formation of a head-and-shoulders top pattern on the hourly chart. Nevertheless, hourly indicators remain elevated, showing signs of overbought conditions and bearish divergence. Consequently, chasing the current rally is not advisable, as the market is not following conventional technical patterns. Subsequent price action is likely to remain passively influenced by the US dollar's movements, which itself is at a critical juncture, adding uncertainty to short-term prospects.
Intraday, initial resistance is observed near 4880. Should the positive momentum persist ahead of potential US-Iran talks, prices could test the 4920-4950 resistance zone. Support on the downside is focused around the 4810-4800 area.
In summary, the market is in a state of long-term bullish sentiment but short-term consolidation at elevated levels. However, yesterday's rally was driven by news flow, and negotiation progress remains subject to potential reversals; thus, aggressive buying at highs is not recommended. Intraday trading is expected to involve wide-range fluctuations.
The recommended strategy is to follow the prevailing trend while respecting the impact of incoming data.
Intraday trading suggestions: Gold: Consider long positions in the 4810-4815 range with a stop loss below 4799, targeting 4880-4900. A break above this target could allow for holding positions. If prices fall below 4800, exit long positions and consider shorting towards the 4720-4700 support zone.
Key economic data and events to watch for Wednesday, April 15: 20:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for April 20:30 US Import Price Index MoM for March 20:30 Fed Governor Barr participates in a discussion 22:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index for April Next day 01:40 Fed Governor Bowman delivers remarks Next day 02:00 Fed releases the Beige Book