Oil futures extended their gains tonight (early morning Beijing time, March 27), with energy commodities rising across the board during the night session. On the surface, this appears to be a routine market reaction to geopolitical risks. However, a closer look at the latest statements from the US White House cabinet meeting and Iran's simultaneous responses reveals that the real drivers behind this rally are far more direct—and more ironic—than the superficial notion that "the war continues."

The primary reason for tonight's sharp rise in oil prices is the indication from the US cabinet meeting that negotiations are not as optimistic as previously thought. Trump previously made cryptic remarks, stating, "They did something terrific yesterday. They gave us a gift, a very expensive gift. I won't tell you what the gift is, but it's very significant. This gift is related to oil and gas, to oil transportation, and to the Strait of Hormuz."

What was the outcome? Ten ships passed through? Flying the Pakistani flag? This is clearly not such a monumental gift. The passage of ten tankers neither changed the actual control of the strait nor alleviated the tightness in global supply chains.

Secondly, the situation of escalating disputes persists. Latest reports indicate that the US Department of Defense is developing a "decisive strike" military plan against Iran. This includes options to invade or blockade Iran's main oil export hub, Kharg Island; attack Larak Island, Iran's strategic point for controlling the Strait of Hormuz; seize Abu Musa Island and two other small islands at the western entrance of the strait; and blockade or seize vessels transporting Iranian oil on the eastern side of the Strait of Hormuz.

Simultaneously, Iran's Tasnim News Agency quoted military sources tonight, stating clearly that Iran is fully prepared if the US attempts to forcibly open the strait through a "suicidal action." They have mobilized over one million combat personnel, with many young people flocking to recruitment centers. They also warned that even if a ceasefire agreement is reached, "we will not let the Americans off the hook" if core conditions are not met. The threat of a new front opening in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait further increases the risk of conflict spillover.

Additionally, Tehran is currently under bombardment. Trump also stated bluntly tonight that "getting oil is an option." He said he is in no hurry to end the war, but simultaneously claimed it would be over in 4-6 weeks, creating confusion.

The vast gap between Iran and the US regarding the retention of nuclear capabilities makes it difficult to believe that negotiations can achieve substantive progress. The only certainty is that the war continues, and the market has been fooled by Trump once again.

A fundamental disagreement exists on nuclear capabilities: the US demands that Iran completely abandon uranium enrichment, shut down facilities, and hand over all materials; Iran insists on its "right to enrich." A 15-point ceasefire framework conveyed by third parties like Pakistan remains at the "under review by Iran" stage, not "imminent." Senior Iranian officials have直言不讳地 stated that the Washington proposal is "one-sided and unfair."

Another point worth noting: Iran's oil exports have not collapsed. According to estimates from TankerTrackers.com and calculations based on crude oil prices, Iran's daily oil revenue in March has reached $139 million, nearly $25 million higher than in February. The Strait of Hormuz continues to operate, albeit partially controlled, with 26 vessels having passed through Iran's control system. These facts remind the market that geopolitical risk premiums are unlikely to dissipate in the short term.

Tonight's oil price surge may very well be a collective market correction to the "disconnect between narrative and reality." What we currently see is a stalemate, continued bombardment, and mutual probing. The war continues. That, at least for tonight, is certain.