There are just seven days remaining before the 17th pricing adjustment window for domestic refined oil products in 2026, which opens at 24:00 on August 28. With the current pricing cycle already past its midpoint, expectations for a price hike continue to strengthen as international crude oil prices keep climbing, making a significant increase increasingly likely.
Looking back at the previous adjustment, the 16th round of fuel price changes landed on August 14 at 24:00, delivering a reduction. Gasoline and diesel were cut by 230 yuan and 220 yuan per tonne respectively, which translated to a drop of 0.18 yuan per litre for 92 octane gasoline, and 0.19 yuan per litre for both 95 octane gasoline and 0 diesel. For a typical 50-litre family fuel tank, filling up with 92 octane would save roughly 9 yuan, prompting many car owners to top up while prices were lower. This brought 92 octane gasoline briefly back to the 7 yuan range, with the current retail price in Jiangxi sitting at 7.74 yuan per litre.
This pricing cycle officially began on August 17, and international crude oil has been on a continuous upward trajectory since then. At the start of the cycle, monitoring agency JLC anticipated an increase of around 190 yuan per tonne, equivalent to about 0.15 yuan per litre. Over the following four consecutive working days, the projected increase has steadily expanded, nearly doubling in size. As of August 21, JLC estimates the upward adjustment has reached 370 yuan per tonne. If the current pace of gains holds through to the adjustment date, 92 octane gasoline across many parts of the country will return to the 8 yuan threshold.
Industry insiders point out that there are still several working days before the adjustment window closes, and international crude oil prices remain subject to fluctuation. The final adjustment magnitude will be officially confirmed by the National Development and Reform Commission. Car owners are advised to keep an eye on upcoming fuel price movements and plan their refuelling schedules accordingly.