Following the Supreme Court's decision to revoke former President Trump's tariff authority, U.S. stocks experienced a brief rally on Friday, though investors should brace for renewed economic uncertainty. The ruling, which declared Trump's tariffs illegal, fueled expectations of reduced pressure on corporate profit margins, driving a mid-session surge in equities. After significant volatility, all three major U.S. indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, posting a weekly gain of 1.07%—its best performance since January 9.

On the other hand, the ruling intensified concerns about the U.S. government's fiscal health, particularly among bond investors who have long questioned the sustainability of the country's rising debt levels. Yields on U.S. Treasuries climbed during the session, with the benchmark 10-year yield briefly surpassing 4.10%, while the U.S. dollar weakened.

In response to the Supreme Court's decision, Trump announced alternative measures, including a new 10% global tariff, and indicated that future tariffs would be "much higher." This policy confusion, combined with a weakening dollar, contributed to a more than 2% rise in gold prices, pushing it back above $5,100 per ounce. Spot silver surged 8%.

Analysts suggest that ongoing tariff policy disputes and subsequent refund issues will trigger multiple market reactions in the coming months. Debt pressures, policy uncertainty, and asset price volatility are expected to persist, affecting investor sentiment.

For U.S. equities, the potential $175 billion tariff refund represents a short-term fiscal stimulus. These funds would directly boost corporate profits, particularly for retail and consumer companies that rely heavily on imports. On Friday, the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF closed 0.7% higher. Analysts at Jefferies noted that import-dependent firms such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Victoria's Secret, Gap, and Birkenstock Holding are likely to see near-term benefits, with all four maintaining gains from early trading.

Zak Stambor, chief analyst at Emarketer, expects the ruling to moderately support retail sales starting this year, though the positive effects are projected to fade by 2028. He emphasized that while the decision offers short-term relief, it does not eliminate broader trade policy uncertainties facing retailers and brands.

Prior to the ruling, more than 1,500 companies, including Costco, had filed lawsuits in trade courts seeking tariff refunds. According to Joe Feldman of Telsey Advisory Group, reclaiming already paid tariffs will take time, and price increases on most goods—excluding daily necessities like milk and eggs—are unlikely to reverse.

Henrietta Treyz, head of economic policy research at Veda Partners, warned that new tariffs would reintroduce compliance costs for importers, create border confusion, and disrupt the harmonized tariff schedule.

For the U.S. Treasury market, the Supreme Court's ruling carries deeper implications. The Trump administration and Congress had initially relied on tariff revenue to offset the costs of last year's large-scale tax cuts. According to the U.S. Federal Budget Committee, if alternative revenue sources are not secured, the decision could add over $2 trillion to the national debt—currently at $38.7 trillion—over the next decade.

Analysts caution that if Trump fails to secure sufficient revenue through other tariff mechanisms or if new tariffs trigger greater economic instability, the bond market could face increased selling pressure.

In a speech at the Dallas Economic Club, a Trump administration official stated that "no one should expect tariff revenues to decline," emphasizing that the government would leverage alternative legal authorities, including Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, Section 301, and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Treasury estimates suggest that combining these measures could keep tariff revenues "largely unchanged" by 2026.

For safe-haven assets like gold, the Supreme Court ruling and its aftermath may reignite demand. Trump's statement that "foreign countries that have taken advantage of us for years are celebrating—but not for long" reinforced expectations of ongoing trade tensions.

However, tariff policies continue to face political resistance. Polls indicate nearly two-thirds of Americans believe tariffs have made everyday goods more expensive—a vulnerability for Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections.

Analysts suggest that one unfavorable court ruling is unlikely to diminish Trump's enthusiasm for tariffs. Owen Tedford of Beacon Policy Advisors warned that Democrats may frame new tariffs as "Tariff Day 2.0," referencing the market turmoil caused by tariff announcements in April 2025.

This combination of political and economic uncertainty creates a favorable environment for safe-haven assets. Ben McMillan of IDX Advisors noted that markets anticipate a multi-year legal battle, with refund details left to lower courts, likely resulting in numerous individual lawsuits.

From a fiscal perspective, McMillan added, potential monetary easing could sustain a low-interest-rate environment—beneficial for gold, which typically performs well under such conditions and does not pay interest.

Recent U.S. actions toward Iran are also increasing global uncertainty, further enhancing the appeal of gold and other safe-haven assets. Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven noted that despite high volatility in December, central banks remain keen to increase gold holdings as a hedge against geopolitical and financial risks—a key driver of gold price strength.