China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that, in addition to Doubao, several major technology companies have launched red packet campaigns to attract consumer-side users. The core of this "AI red packet competition" is a battle among large firms for consumer traffic entry points, while also serving as a large-scale effort to cultivate user habits. In this initiative, major players are using their AI assistants or chatbots as primary platforms. If large language models become further integrated with existing sectors such as e-commerce, payment services, and local life services, creating an AI-driven, full-scenario industrial ecosystem, the commercial pathway for these models in the consumer market is expected to gain further validation. The main views of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:

Event Overview: On February 10, 2026, Doubao announced that during the CCTV Spring Festival Gala on Lunar New Year’s Eve, February 16, it would distribute over 100,000 tech gifts powered by its large model, along with cash red packets of up to 8,888 yuan.

Spring Festival Red Packet Campaigns Engage Multiple Players: Besides Doubao, several other major companies have launched red packet activities to capture consumer-side users. Yuanbao App began a 1 billion yuan cash red packet campaign on February 1, with individual red packets reaching up to 10,000 yuan. Qianwen App started its "3 Billion Yuan Free Purchase" event on February 6, offering users a 25 yuan free purchase card with no minimum spend. The app has also secured exclusive sponsorship of four major Spring Festival galas and will participate in gala programming through AI integrations. Baidu's Wenxin Assistant is giving away 500 million yuan in cash red packets, with individual rewards as high as 10,000 yuan.

Competition for Traffic and User Habit Formation: The essence of the "AI red packet competition" lies in major firms vying for consumer traffic entry points while systematically cultivating user habits. On one hand, cash red packets have significantly boosted user metrics for various AI assistant apps, attracting large numbers of new users in a short period. For instance, Yuanbao App topped the App Store free chart for five consecutive days after its campaign began, and Qianwen App also reached the top following its free card promotion. On the other hand, by leveraging the appeal of red packets and the platform of major TV galas, these companies are positioning AI assistants as default, frequently-used touchpoints, thereby fostering habitual usage.

Industrial Integration and Consumer-Side Validation: In this competition, AI assistants and chatbots serve as core vehicles for engagement. The evolution of AI assistants reflects a trend toward functional integration—they are no longer just tools for information queries or content generation but are increasingly interconnected with companies' existing platforms, building new, blended ecosystems. For example, users who receive red packets via Qianwen App can use them on Alibaba’s platforms like Flash Purchase, illustrating an initial fusion of AI ecosystems with established internet ecosystems. Further integration of large models with e-commerce, payments, and local services could help validate the commercial viability of AI applications in the consumer market.

Investment Recommendations: With ongoing catalysts in the AI industry, commercial applications of AI hold substantial growth potential. The current red packet campaign may mark a milestone in the transition of large models and AI assistants from R&D to consumer adoption. Investors are advised to focus on large model developers such as TENCENT (00700) and Alibaba (BABA). Additionally, the cultivation of user habits is expected to benefit vertical AI applications. Recommended areas include: 1) KUAISHOU-W (81024), which leads in domestic AI video tools; 2) AI applications and related industry chains, such as AI+e-commerce, AI+marketing, AI applications, and AI+gaming.

Risk Warnings: Potential risks include slower-than-expected progress in AI technology, content regulatory challenges, industry competition, and lower-than-anticipated user retention rates.