Abstract

Expedia Group will report fourth-quarter 2025 results Post Market on February 12, 2026, with the market focused on revenue trajectory, margins, and adjusted EPS, guided by the company’s prior outlook and consensus forecasts.

Market Forecast

Consensus modeled for the current quarter points to revenue of $3.41 billion with an estimated year-over-year increase of 11.11%, EBIT of $0.43 billion with estimated year-over-year growth of 71.68%, and adjusted EPS of $3.40 with estimated year-over-year growth of 66.92%. The forecast implies stable-to-strong margin dynamics alongside operational scale, with a focus on balancing marketing efficiency and partner mix; gross margin and net margin outlook were not explicitly provided by consensus for this quarter.

Expedia’s core marketplace continues to anchor the topline, with retail travel bookings expected to lead growth supported by improved conversion and supply depth. The most promising segment is Retail, modeled at $2.88 billion last quarter, and it is expected to benefit from ongoing product enhancements and loyalty-driven traffic; year-over-year segment forecast detail was not provided.

Last Quarter Review

Expedia Group’s prior quarter delivered revenue of $4.41 billion, a gross profit margin of 91.48%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.96 billion, a net profit margin of 21.74%, and adjusted EPS of $7.57, with year-over-year revenue growth of 8.67% and adjusted EPS growth of 23.49%.

A notable highlight was the significant quarter-on-quarter rebound in net income, with net profit up 190.61%, reflecting strong operating leverage and disciplined expense management at scale. Main business performance saw Retail at $2.88 billion, B2B at $1.39 billion, and the Trivago segment at $0.19 billion, with internal offsets at -$0.06 billion; year-over-year segment growth metrics were not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Retail Marketplace and Core Transaction Platform

Retail is the largest revenue driver, anchored by the company’s lodging, air, and packages marketplace. Momentum hinges on higher-quality traffic, checkout conversion, and repeat usage supported by loyalty and app engagement. Given last quarter’s heavy retail mix at $2.88 billion, the current quarter’s trajectory should reflect seasonally softer volumes than peak travel periods yet continue to show year-over-year progress consistent with the $3.41 billion revenue estimate. Expect emphasis on product discoverability, pricing transparency, and partner content richness to support take rate integrity and gross margin stability. Operationally, the company’s prior efficiency gains in customer service, automation, and marketing allocation should help sustain margin health through the quarter, though any outsized promotional activity by competitors could modestly pressure near-term unit economics.

Most Promising Business: B2B Partnerships

The B2B segment, at $1.39 billion last quarter, remains structurally attractive due to its recurring, contractual nature and multi-year partner relationships that broaden demand beyond direct consumer traffic. Growth in B2B bookings can improve utilization of inventory and drive more consistent revenue with less direct marketing intensity. This tenders a stabilizing pillar for EBIT, particularly in shoulder seasons when retail volumes can be more variable. The segment’s development, including deeper integration with enterprise partners and expanded distribution use cases, can lift incremental margin contribution through lower acquisition costs per transaction. Over the current quarter, expect management to prioritize expanding partner lanes and service breadth—in turn, potentially offering supportive optics for EBIT resilience even as consumer seasonality normalizes volumes from the prior quarter’s peak.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Stock performance will hinge on four elements: the revenue beat-or-miss versus the $3.41 billion estimate, operating margin versus expectations implied by the $0.43 billion EBIT forecast, adjusted EPS relative to the $3.40 marker, and visibility into first-half 2026 demand and marketing efficiency. A beat on revenue alongside visible progress in expense discipline would be viewed constructively, particularly if conversion and repeat metrics continue to improve. Conversely, any sign of demand softness or re-acceleration in marketing intensity without commensurate growth would raise questions about the durability of margin gains. Commentary on partner mix, lodging supply quality, and retention metrics will be carefully parsed to infer sustainability of current trends. Investors will also monitor management’s data around cancellation rates, regional demand dispersion, and outbound travel recovery patterns, which could adjust the growth narrative for the remainder of 2026.

Analyst Opinions

Across institutional views available from the current cycle, the majority of analyst commentary trends bullish, emphasizing improving profitability and supportive demand patterns into early 2026. Bank of America Securities has maintained a Buy stance on Expedia Group, citing confidence in earnings trajectory and marketplace execution, with attention to conversion and operating leverage. Evercore ISI similarly carries a Buy view and has highlighted the company’s progress on product enhancements and margin structure, while noting that normalization in promotional dynamics across online travel peers should allow Expedia Group to sustain better unit economics than prior cycles. Argus Research also holds a constructive position, pointing to continued improvement in adjusted EPS and balanced top-line growth anchored by core retail and B2B distribution.

Most bullish cases expect Expedia Group to meet or exceed the $3.41 billion revenue estimate and deliver adjusted EPS near or above $3.40, driven by operational scale benefits and improved marketing efficiency. The upside thesis underscores three pillars: stable demand across lodging with limited macro drag into the quarter, disciplined marketing cohorts with healthier payback windows, and B2B contribution acting as a cushion for EBIT. These institutions collectively anticipate that near-term execution will validate the margin framework hinted at by last quarter’s results. The minority neutral-to-cautious views flag potential volatility from competitive pricing and periodic promotional intensity; however, the predominance of positive ratings suggests market participants remain inclined to assume limited disruption to the current earnings cadence for this reporting event.