After a strong rally the previous week, the price of the main apple futures contract has fallen sharply for two consecutive days, completely erasing the prior week's gains and causing market sentiment to cool rapidly. At the close on March 24, the main apple futures contract AP2605 settled at 10,072 yuan per ton, down over 3%, with open interest also declining significantly.
Behind this sharp price drop, is it a rational exit by long-position holders taking profits, or a quiet shift in fundamentals?
Li Jingyi, an agricultural product analyst at Guoxin Futures, believes that the noticeable reduction in open interest for the main apple futures contract is a key reason for the price pullback, as long positions chose to take profits and exit the market.
Chen Yuhao, a senior researcher at CITIC Securities Futures, stated, "The rapid rise in apple futures prices from March 19 to 20 was accompanied by an increase in open interest, which once exceeded 94,000 contracts. However, over the following two trading sessions, open interest quickly fell to just over 70,000 contracts, a drop of 22%. This rapid decline in open interest can be interpreted as long positions leaving the market."
From the perspective of the spot market, the current period is a critical time for pre-Qingming Festival stocking, with the market showing clear structural differentiation characteristics.
On the supply side, Li Jingyi indicated that the overall inventory in the apple market is at a historically low level, providing support for prices. According to data from relevant institutions, as of March 19, 2026, the national cold storage apple inventory was 4.1892 million tons, 1.80 percentage points lower than the same period last year. However, structural issues in the inventory are prominent, with a tight supply of high-quality goods from producing areas, while supplies of medium and lower quality are ample.
On the demand side, stocking demand has commenced, but purchasing attitudes among traders vary. Li Jingyi explained that the Shandong region has many foreign trade orders, with foreign traders actively purchasing, mainly selecting small-sized fruits and some 80# grade fruit. Meanwhile, in major producing areas such as Xianyang in Shaanxi and Jingning in Gansu, cold storage inventories are relatively low, and traders are actively stocking up for the Qingming Festival. Overall, trader stocking activities are gradually expanding, and cold storage shipments are expected to increase steadily.
"Affected by quality issues, the number of traders in the Shandong producing area is currently not high, and cold storage transaction activity is average," Li Jingyi added. Coupled with the month-on-month decline in fresh apple exports in February, this forms the practical backdrop for the weaker performance in the futures market.
Looking ahead, Li Jingyi stated that in the short term, Qingming Festival stocking and consumption during the holiday period are crucial. "The first half of the year has many holidays, which is the golden sales period for apples. As storage time extends, apple quality will be tested, and the sales window in the second half of the year will narrow. Therefore, the sales performance during the Qingming Festival and the May Day holiday will be the core variables for the market." She anticipates that due to the scarcity of high-quality goods, apple prices will remain high, while lower-quality goods will face poor sales, leading to continued divergence in the performance of different quality grades. For the AP2605 contract, influenced by lower production and a lower rate of high-quality fruit, there is some support below, and the future trend may involve wide fluctuations.
From a medium to long-term perspective, Li Jingyi believes that later market conditions will likely revolve around inventory drawdown in producing areas and the growth situation of the new season's apple crop. "Weather conditions during the growing period of the 2026/2027 season and changes in planting area will affect market trends and require close attention."
Chen Yuhao noted that as the flowering period approaches from late March to April, market attention will shift to the AP2610 contract, which may gradually become the new main contract. For the AP2610 contract, it is necessary to dialectically monitor weather conditions during the flowering and fruit-setting periods in major producing areas. On one hand, vigilance is needed against the potential occurrence of extreme weather events, such as the large-scale "late spring cold" seen in the 2018/2019 season. On the other hand, if market sentiment is impacted by supply-side news, it is also important to recognize that fruit farmers have some room for adjustment during the flower and fruit thinning process.
Industry insiders believe that the recent sharp fluctuations in the futures market reflect concerns about the ability of terminal consumption to absorb supply amid high prices. In the coming period, the actual consumption performance during the Qingming Festival and weather changes in the new season's apple producing areas will be key factors determining market direction.