At the 2025 Analyst Conference, dubbed the "Oscars of the Capital Market," institutions predicted a bull market in A-shares driven by global capital inflows. On November 28, Wang Qing, Chairman and Chief Economist of Chongyang Investment, delivered a keynote speech titled "From Value Reassessment to Earnings-Driven Growth."
Wang Qing highlighted China's current three-pronged macro policy approach. First, a "moderately accommodative" monetary policy, including RRR and interest rate cuts, further relaxation of real estate policies (such as reductions in existing mortgage rates and down payment ratios), adjustments to loan repricing mechanisms, and capital market support measures like swap facilities and repo relending tools to encourage long-term capital inflows.
Second, a "more proactive" fiscal policy, featuring unconventional countercyclical adjustments proposed by the Politburo, large-scale debt quota expansions, support for local governments in resolving hidden debts, and special bond issuances to replenish core tier-1 capital of major state-owned banks. Additional measures include leveraging local government special bonds, funds, and tax tools to stabilize the property market, as well as boosting student aid programs to enhance overall consumption capacity.
Third, structural policies, such as the forthcoming "Private Economy Promotion Law," the new "National Nine Measures," and the implementation of major reforms outlined at the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee by 2029.
Wang Qing outlined three phases of value reassessment amid asset scarcity: 1. **Phase One**: Extremely low risk appetite leads to value stock reassessment. 2. **Phase Two**: Risk appetite recovery triggers growth stock reassessment. 3. **Phase Three**: Normalized risk appetite shifts focus to earnings-driven performance.
The presentation slides were also shared during the event.