1. On Thursday, October 2, US stock index futures showed mixed performance in pre-market trading. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.02%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.25%, and Nasdaq futures gained 0.49%.

2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index rose 1.27%, UK's FTSE 100 gained 0.04%, France's CAC 40 climbed 1.41%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 advanced 1.52%.

3. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 0.42% to $61.52 per barrel, while Brent crude declined 0.44% to $65.06 per barrel.

Market News

US ADP Employment Data Unexpectedly Negative, Investors Bet on Two More Fed Rate Cuts This Year

ADP's September private sector employment report released Wednesday showed an unexpected decline of 32,000 jobs, far below Wall Street's expectation of a 45,000 increase. This surprising data was interpreted by markets as the latest signal of significant deterioration in the US labor market, reinforcing investor expectations for two additional 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before year-end.

With the federal government partially shut down due to budget deadlock, the ADP data, typically viewed as a "non-farm preview indicator," has garnered unusual attention. Since the Bureau of Labor Statistics' September non-farm payroll report scheduled for Friday was canceled due to the government shutdown, markets must temporarily rely on ADP data to assess employment conditions.

US September Manufacturing PMI Contracts for Seventh Consecutive Month, Price Pressures Remain Evident

Data released Wednesday by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed US manufacturing remained in contraction territory in September, reflecting continued suppression of factory activity by weak industry demand and external environment uncertainty. The latest manufacturing PMI recorded 49.1, up from August's 48.7 but still below the 50 threshold, indicating seven consecutive months of contraction.

Among sub-indices, the output index returned to expansion territory at 51, surging 3.2 percentage points from August, but the new orders index fell to 48.9, ending last month's brief expansion. The export orders index dropped further to 43, declining 4.6 percentage points from August, showing persistently weak external demand. The inventory index decreased to 47.7, reflecting rising corporate destocking pressure.

US September Layoffs Drop 37%, YTD Total Exceeds Full-Year 2024

Data released Thursday by global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed US employers announced 54,064 layoffs in September, down 37% from August and 26% from 72,821 in the same period last year. Year-to-date through 2025, companies have announced 946,426 layoffs, the highest YTD cumulative figure since the 2020 pandemic period (when leisure and hospitality industries were nearly shut down, resulting in 2.08 million layoffs). This figure also represents the fifth-highest YTD total in the company's 36-year tracking history. The YTD layoff total increased 55% from the same period last year and is 24% higher than the full-year 2024 total.

Supreme Court Rejects Trump's Immediate Removal of Fed Governor Cook, Will Formally Hear Arguments in January

The US Supreme Court on Wednesday rejected President Trump's application for immediate dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook. This ruling means Cook will continue in her position until the Supreme Court formally hears arguments in January and makes a final decision. Cook has remained in her position since August last year, when Trump announced her removal on "mortgage fraud" charges. Cook's side has clearly denied the related charges. Lower courts previously determined that Cook would "likely prevail" in the litigation and granted a temporary injunction preventing her dismissal before case resolution. The Justice Department subsequently appealed, but the Supreme Court indicated it would postpone action, with no justices raising objections.

FOMC Voting Member Goolsbee: Government Shutdown Data Gap Complicates Fed Decision-Making

2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said Wednesday that the lack of official data during the government shutdown would make it harder for Fed officials to interpret economic conditions. Goolsbee reiterated concerns about recent services inflation increases, stating this might mean price pressures will persist in economic sectors least affected by tariffs. He noted that while there are many non-government sources of labor market data, the same is not true for inflation statistics.

EU Proposes Significant Steel Import Tariff Increase to 50% to Protect Domestic Steel Industry

A draft proposal shows the EU plans to raise steel import tariffs to 50%. This move would align EU tariff levels with the US, which is seeking to address Asian overcapacity issues. The EU currently operates a temporary mechanism protecting its steel industry, imposing 25% tariffs on most imported steel after quota exhaustion. This mechanism expires in June, and the EU has been working to replace it with more permanent regulations, planning to announce next week. According to the draft, the European Commission handling EU trade affairs plans to raise tariff rates to 50% "to minimize trade diversion risks." This higher rate will apply once import volumes exceed specific quotas.

Goldman Sachs: Strong Private Investor Interest, Gold Rally Far from Over

Goldman Sachs Group, long bullish on gold, stated that gold prices have further upside potential due to strong private investor interest, possibly exceeding the firm's expectations. Goldman analysts including Daan Struyven noted that gold ETF inflows were unexpectedly strong, surpassing previous model predictions. The possibility of significant private investor gold investment creates "enormous upside risk" to analysts' forecasts. They originally projected gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $4,300 per ounce by the end of next year.

Individual Stock News

Reports of Advanced Micro Devices and Intel Discussing Foundry Cooperation

Sources indicate Intel is in preliminary discussions with Advanced Micro Devices about the possibility of Intel's foundry services producing some AMD chips. This news drove Intel stock up 7% on Wednesday, while AMD shares also rose over 1%. If cooperation succeeds, this would represent a major breakthrough for Intel's foundry business. Analysts note that major customer participation would not only help Intel increase investment in advanced process R&D but also signal to the semiconductor industry its capability to handle top-tier customer orders. Currently, AMD's chips are primarily manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM.US).

Berkshire Hathaway to Acquire Western Petroleum's OxyChem Chemical Division for $9.7 Billion

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway announced Thursday its largest transaction in years: Berkshire Hathaway will acquire Western Petroleum's chemical division OxyChem for $9.7 billion. This OxyChem acquisition may be Buffett's final major transaction before transferring the CEO position to Vice Chairman Greg Abel in January next year. Warren Buffett plans to continue as Berkshire's chairman and will continue participating in decisions regarding the group's over $344 billion cash deployment.

Stellantis Third Quarter Sales Rise 6% to 324,800 Units

Stellantis sold 324,825 vehicles in the US during the third quarter, up 6% from the same period last year, achieving its highest monthly market share in the past 15 months in September. By brand, Jeep sales increased 11%, Chrysler sales rose 45%, offsetting Dodge's 2% decline and Ram brand's 5% drop. Fiat sales grew 2% this quarter, while Alfa Romeo sales fell 21% to just 1,614 units.

Important Economic Data and Event Preview

Beijing Time 22:00: US Durable Goods Orders Excluding Defense Monthly Rate Beijing Time 22:00: US Factory Orders Monthly Rate Beijing Time 22:30: US EIA Natural Gas Inventory