今年一月,华尔街对凯文·沃什获得提名表现出既感宽慰又持审慎态度的复杂情绪,交易员们正试图将其政策记录与美联储未来数年可能面临的重大议题相映射。
在特朗普总统宣布提名沃什的次日,股市出现下跌。这或许是因为许多交易员认为,相较于由其他最终候选人(包括特朗普的忠实支持者凯文·哈西特)领导的美联储,沃什执掌的美联储选择大幅降息的可能性较低。
另一方面,债券收益率保持稳定,这被许多人视为市场对沃什领导的美联储将审慎管理通胀风险抱有信心的信号。
市场预计,当领导权从杰罗姆·鲍威尔交接给沃什时,货币政策不会出现剧烈变动。利率期货市场的押注显示,交易员普遍认为未来12个月内利率最有可能维持稳定或仅小幅下降。
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