Key market perspectives were outlined.

Rubber

On Monday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2609 contract exhibited characteristics of reduced volume, increased open interest, and a slightly stronger, volatile trend, closing with a modest gain of 0.37% at 17,845 yuan per ton. The discount for the September-January spread converged to 780 yuan per ton. As previous positive factors are gradually digested and against the backdrop of a weaker energy and chemical sector, it is anticipated that Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend going forward.

Methanol

On Monday, the domestic methanol futures 2609 contract showed signs of reduced volume, decreased open interest, a weak downward movement, and a significant closing decline. The contract price rose to a high of 2,614 yuan per ton and fell to a low of 2,488 yuan per ton, ultimately closing sharply lower by 2.43% at 2,528 yuan per ton. The premium for the September-January spread narrowed to 77 yuan per ton. With the rapid de-escalation of US-Iran tensions and the signing of a memorandum of understanding, expectations for overseas methanol imports have risen, leading to a retreat in methanol premiums. Coupled with persistently weak downstream domestic demand and the nearing end of port inventory drawdowns, it is expected that methanol futures may continue to exhibit weak and volatile performance.

Crude Oil

On Monday, the domestic crude oil futures 2608 contract demonstrated reduced volume, decreased open interest, a weak and volatile trend, and a slight closing decline. The contract price reached a high of 522.0 yuan per barrel and a low of 502.0 yuan per barrel, closing slightly lower by 1.27% at 507.2 yuan per barrel. Due to the rapid cooling of US-Iran tensions and the signing of a memorandum of understanding, the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East has diminished, leading to a continued unwinding of the crude oil premium. It is forecast that domestic crude oil futures prices may persist in a weak and volatile trend.

Industry Developments

Rubber

According to statistics, as of June 14, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, including bonded and general trade, was 681,600 tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons or 2.18% from the previous period. Bonded warehouse inventory stood at 84,500 tons, down 5.62%, while general trade inventory was 597,100 tons, down 1.68%. The warehousing rate for natural rubber sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.19 percentage points, with the outbound rate increasing by 0.09 percentage points. For general trade warehouses, the inbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points, while the outbound rate increased by 3.09 percentage points.

As of June 12, 2026, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 71.48%, up 1.05 percentage points month-on-month and up 1.50 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises was 67.64%, down 0.38 percentage points month-on-month but up 8.94 percentage points year-on-year. During the period, production at semi-steel tire maintenance sample enterprises gradually resumed, driving a gradual increase in capacity utilization. However, insufficient foreign trade orders, combined with overall shipment performance falling short of expectations, led some enterprises to reduce output, limiting the overall increase in capacity utilization. All-steel tire enterprises faced rising production and sales pressure, alongside persistent raw material cost pressures. Some companies controlled production schedules for economy products, implementing flexible output reductions or maintenance arrangements, which dragged down the capacity utilization rate for all-steel tire sample enterprises. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate for tire sample enterprises will remain weak in the coming period.

In May 2026, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.616 million and 2.629 million units respectively, showing month-on-month growth but a slight year-on-year decline, with the rate of decline narrowing further. Overall, in the first five months, automobile production and sales totaled 12.235 million and 12.207 million units respectively. Within this, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 5.841 million and 5.802 million units, representing year-on-year increases of 2.5% and 3.5% respectively.

Data shows that domestic heavy truck sales in May 2026 reached 89,000 units, up 1.3% month-on-month and 13.6% year-on-year. Cumulative sales for January to May were 441,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, indicating a clear recovery trend. The China Logistics Prosperity Index for May was 50.3%, rebounding by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.

Methanol

For the week ending June 18, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 85.32%, showing a slight week-on-week decrease of 1.84%, a marginal month-on-month increase of 0.31%, and a small year-on-year increase of 1.5%. During the same period, China's average weekly methanol output reached 2.0356 million tons, a slight week-on-week decrease of 26,600 tons, a small month-on-month increase of 26,900 tons, and a modest increase of 37,700 tons compared to 1.9979 million tons in the same period last year.

For the week ending June 18, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.62%, with a marginal week-on-week decrease of 0.60%. Meanwhile, the operating rate for dimethyl ether was maintained at 5.58%, showing a slight week-on-week decrease of 1.24%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 79.03%, with a small week-on-week increase of 4.44%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 49.73%, with a marginal week-on-week increase of 0.40%.

For the week ending June 12, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefins units was 74.94%, showing a marginal week-on-week decrease of 0.50 percentage points and a slight month-on-month decrease of 5.47%.

As of June 18, 2026, the futures market profit for domestic methanol to olefins was -51 yuan per ton, representing a significant week-on-week rebound of 383 yuan per ton but a slight month-on-month decline of 54 yuan per ton.

For the week ending June 18, 2026, methanol port inventory in East and South China was maintained at 376,500 tons, showing a slight week-on-week decrease of 25,000 tons, a substantial month-on-month decrease of 135,500 tons, and a modest year-on-year decrease of 73,000 tons. For the week ending June 17, 2026, total inland methanol inventory in China reached 336,800 tons, showing a marginal week-on-week increase of 4,900 tons, a slight month-on-month decrease of 27,400 tons, and a small decrease of 30,600 tons compared to 367,400 tons in the same period last year.

Crude Oil

For the week ending June 12, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 433, showing a slight week-on-week increase of 2 rigs but a decrease of 6 rigs compared to the same period last year.

For the week ending June 12, 2026, average US crude oil production was 13.806 million barrels per day, showing a marginal week-on-week increase of 7,000 barrels per day and a slight year-on-year increase of 375,000 barrels per day, remaining at historically high levels.

As of the week ending June 12, 2026, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) was 418.2 million barrels, showing a substantial week-on-week decrease of 8.263 million barrels and a slight year-on-year decrease of 2.72 million barrels. Crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 20.034 million barrels, showing a significant week-on-week decrease of 1.606 million barrels. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 340.25 million barrels, showing a substantial week-on-week decline of 8.941 million barrels.

The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.70%, showing a small week-on-week increase of 1.4 percentage points, a slight month-on-month increase of 5.1 percentage points, and a modest year-on-year increase of 3.5 percentage points.

As of June 16, 2026, the average WTI crude oil non-commercial net long position was maintained at 130,301 contracts, showing a substantial week-on-week decrease of 25,573 contracts and a significant decrease of 40,259 contracts, or 23.60%, from the May average of 170,560 contracts. On the other hand, as of June 16, 2026, the average Brent crude oil futures fund net long position was maintained at 174,807 contracts, showing a substantial week-on-week decrease of 43,283 contracts and a significant decrease of 136,138 contracts, or 43.78%, from the May average of 310,945 contracts.