On September 8th, last Friday's non-farm payroll data delivered a major surprise, causing the US Dollar Index to plunge sharply and nearly erasing all gains from the previous week. This development pushed spot gold to fresh record highs, briefly breaking above the $3600 level before closing at $3586 per ounce, marking the third consecutive week of gains. This week's news flow is relatively light, with focus remaining on Russia-Ukraine and Middle East issues, as well as Trump's tariff policies.
On Monday (September 8th), driven by multiple factors including weak US employment data, escalating geopolitical tensions, and continued central bank accumulation, spot gold prices have approached the historic $3600 per ounce threshold, with year-to-date gains reaching as high as 37%. This strong rally in gold prices not only reflects market expectations for a Federal Reserve monetary policy shift but also highlights investor risk-aversion sentiment amid increasing uncertainty.
Additionally, US Treasury yields have plunged further. Two-year Treasury yields fell to 3.513%, while 10-year yields dropped to 4.088%, both hitting multi-month lows, accompanied by dollar weakness. It can be said that the current trend strongly favors bulls, but this brings the overbought condition that has been consistently mentioned. Once bullish momentum fails to sustain, gold could easily experience a significant correction.
From a technical perspective, the week begins with temporary retention of market bullish sentiment continuation, and gold may continue maintaining its elevated consolidation pattern. However, upside space is difficult to predict, and there's increased need to guard against adjustment risks due to insufficient bullish momentum follow-through. Early in the week, attention should continue on the battle for the $3600 round number resistance, with potential for a breakout to test the $3615-3620 area. However, establishing a firm foothold above $3600 presents certain difficulties, requiring continuous fundamental support. Without sustained fundamental positives, there's risk of potential staged profit-taking by bulls. Within the week, focus below should be on testing the 5-day moving average around $3563-3560.
In summary, gold has opened with consistently weak consolidation, and short-term technical conditions suggest overbought correction needs, making blind chasing inadvisable. The main intraday approach should focus on buying after pullbacks to support levels stabilize, while contrarian short positions are only recommended with light positions and must be executed with quick entry and exit. Key focus on $3550-3560 support and $3600-3610 resistance levels.
Therefore, recommended intraday operations:
Gold: Short at $3585-3586, stop loss at $3591, target $3560-3550 area, hold if broken. If $3550 holds, consider reversing to long for range trading. If price stabilizes above $3590, exit short and go long, targeting $3600 breakout to $3620 area.
Key economic data and events to watch today: Monday, September 8th, 2025 23:00 US August New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations