Overnight, U.S. technology stocks experienced significant declines, triggering follow-through selling in A-shares and H-shares tech stocks this morning.

In the U.S. market, Marvell Technology (primarily AI chips) dropped over 6%, Oracle and AMD fell more than 5%, while NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Taiwan Semiconductor ADR declined over 3%. Meta and Netflix dropped more than 2%, with Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, and Qualcomm all showing weakness. Although the Nasdaq index only fell 1.46%, market divergence has increased.

Reports indicate that Wall Street traders suddenly began heavily purchasing "catastrophic" put options on the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index. Bank of America's chief investment strategist warned that U.S. risk assets are forming a bubble and predicted that U.S. stocks will decline after the Jackson Hole central bank symposium concludes this Friday.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently stated in an interview that the AI sector is currently in a bubble. Apollo Management's chief economist noted that concerns about a bubble are intensifying as tech stock movements show "striking similarities" to the late 1990s internet bubble.

So, will artificial intelligence, which has been globally hyped for over two years, truly repeat the devastating scene of the internet bubble burst around 2000? Will A-shares, which have just shown improvement, be dragged down by U.S. stocks?

My view is that U.S. stocks have indeed historically had significant influence on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. Themes hyped in U.S. markets can be reflected in A-shares and H-shares within hours. For example, when Buffett speaks at shareholder meetings or discloses new holdings, corresponding stocks immediately emerge here. However, this doesn't mean A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are completely synchronized with U.S. markets.

Taking the internet bubble burst around 2000 as an example, while the Nasdaq index peaked and plummeted in March 2000, A-shares didn't immediately follow but delayed until June 2001 before peaking and declining. Moreover, the trigger for A-shares' decline was the publication of "Measures for Managing the Reduction of State-Owned Shares to Raise Social Security Funds," which sparked market concerns about selloffs.

The Nasdaq index has risen from around 1,664 points to approximately 21,300 points since May 2009, an increase of nearly 11 times. Meanwhile, our indices, such as the Shanghai Composite, have only risen from around 2,600 points to 3,700 points, showing extremely limited gains.

Are U.S. tech stock valuations significantly overvalued? Not necessarily. For instance, Apple and Microsoft have P/E ratios around 30 times, Google and Meta's parent company around 20 times, while high-growth NVIDIA trades at over 50 times. The overall Nasdaq P/E ratio is around 30 times, with the Nasdaq 100's weighted average P/E ratio approximately 33 times. You could say valuations are slightly elevated, but not extremely high.

Small and mid-cap listed companies in the AI sector do have generally high P/E ratios, with many trading at hundreds of times earnings or even lacking P/E ratios entirely, trading on dreams rather than earnings.

After several years of adjustment, A-shares currently have overall reasonable valuations. Taking the Shanghai Stock Exchange as an example, the overall average P/E ratio was 15.25 times as of yesterday, with the main board under 14 times, main board B-shares under 10 times, and the STAR Market at 59 times. On the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the main board's average P/E ratio is 23.4 times, while ChiNext is at 45 times.

Therefore, P/E ratios in Shanghai and Shenzhen main board markets are reasonable, even slightly low. ChiNext and STAR Market are somewhat high, with localized bubbles.

My judgment is: if the U.S. truly experiences an AI bubble burst and market correction, the impact on A-shares would be relatively limited. AI sectors within A-shares might decline alongside, temporarily dragging down A-share indices, but the overall impact on A-shares would be limited.

As for Hong Kong stocks, they might be affected slightly more, given the free flow of capital in Hong Kong markets and the presence of more international hot money. However, due to the generally low P/E ratios of major internet platform companies listed in Hong Kong (Tencent, Alibaba, etc.) and their ongoing aggressive share buybacks, correction amplitude should be limited.

A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will likely experience independent market movements for some time, determined by China's domestic economic logic. First, Chinese tech stocks were previously undervalued; second, macro policies have undergone major shifts, particularly with capacity reduction playing a positive role.

The Federal Reserve will likely begin cutting rates from September and enter a period of steep rate cuts. Therefore, conditions for a major U.S. stock market decline are insufficient. China's monetary policy space is also about to open up, so A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are likely in the middle stages of their rallies.

Some adjustment might not be bad for future market development. Finally, it's important to remind everyone that markets carry risks and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute any investment advice.