China Posts 5.3% GDP Growth in First Half 2025 Economic Report Card

Market Watcher
Jul 16, 2025

China's economy demonstrated remarkable resilience during the first half of 2025, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting a 5.3% year-on-year GDP expansion to 66.05 trillion yuan. The performance exceeded expectations despite mounting global uncertainties, showcasing steady progress across multiple sectors. Quarterly analysis reveals consistent momentum—Q1 grew 5.4% while Q2 maintained 5.2% growth. Sequentially, Q2 GDP expanded 1.1%. Key sectors propelled this advancement: agriculture rose 3.7% with summer grain output reaching 149.74 million tons; industrial value-added output climbed 6.4%, spearheaded by equipment manufacturing (+10.2%) and high-tech manufacturing (+9.5%); services accelerated to 5.5% growth, outpacing Q1 by 0.2 percentage points.

Consumer markets regained vitality as retail sales hit 24.55 trillion yuan, up 5% annually. Fixed-asset investment excluding rural households expanded 2.8% to 24.87 trillion yuan—stripping property development, growth surged to 6.6%. Trade dynamics strengthened with total imports/exports rising 2.9% to 21.79 trillion yuan, where private enterprises contributed 57.3% of trade volume amid structural optimization.

Price stability prevailed with core CPI (excluding food/energy) edging up 0.4%. Employment indicators solidified as urban surveyed unemployment averaged 5.2%, dipping 0.1 percentage points from Q1. Household incomes grew steadily with per capita disposable income reaching 21,840 yuan, a real 5.4% increase after inflation adjustment.

New quality productive forces gained significant traction: - High-tech manufacturing surged 9.5% - Strategic emerging service revenues jumped nearly 10% - New energy vehicles skyrocketed over 30% - Lithium battery production exploded 53.3%

Monetary authorities reinforced liquidity through a landmark 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repo operation—the second consecutive monthly expansion. Experts note this innovative tool directly injects medium-term liquidity, surpassing traditional MLF mechanisms in flexibility while easing financing constraints for smaller banks.

Real estate markets showed nascent recovery signs: - New home sales declines narrowed by 15.5 percentage points YoY - Property funding conditions improved markedly - Home inventory shrank for four consecutive months

Looking ahead, economic fundamentals remain supportive despite external headwinds. Services now drive over 60% of GDP growth, while consumption’s "ballast effect" continues to anchor expansion. With policy tools primed for deployment and domestic circulation strengthening, China’s economy is positioned for sustained, high-quality development through 2025’s second half.

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