Title

Earning Preview: Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 19.55%, and institutional views are predominantly bullish

Abstract

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. is scheduled to report fiscal results on February 24, 2026 Pre-Market, with current projections indicating revenue of $240.29 million and adjusted EPS of $0.90 for this quarter, following a solid prior quarter performance and continued resilience in profitability.

Market Forecast

For the to-be-reported quarter, the prevailing projections indicate revenue of $240.29 million, up 19.55% year over year, with adjusted EPS estimated at $0.90, up 22.09% year over year; EBIT is forecast at $67.52 million, up 8.64% year over year. While margin guidance for the quarter is not specified, the prior quarter’s gross profit margin at 75.09% underscores structurally strong unit economics that investors will monitor for stability.

The main business remains product sales, where management’s growth trajectory is reflected in ongoing topline momentum and historically high gross profitability; the outlook centers on steady demand and disciplined expense control. The most promising revenue driver continues to be product sales, which delivered $239.46 million last quarter, up 28.71% year over year, and is projected to anchor this quarter’s growth profile again.

Last Quarter Review

In the most recent quarter, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of $239.46 million, a gross profit margin of 75.09%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of $50.87 million, a net profit margin of 21.24%, and adjusted EPS of $0.87, representing year-over-year growth of 28.71% for revenue and 10.13% for adjusted EPS.

A key highlight was operating performance outperformance versus estimates: EBIT reached $67.49 million, exceeding projections, and adjusted EPS surpassed estimates by $0.03, signaling disciplined operating leverage amidst scale. The main business, product sales, accounted for $239.46 million with a year-over-year increase of 28.71%, demonstrating robust unit volumes and healthy monetization that supported the high gross margin baseline.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core Product Sales Momentum and Profitability Dynamics

This quarter’s setup suggests a continuation of steady product sales momentum, with projections calling for $240.29 million in revenue, essentially maintaining last quarter’s high base while expanding 19.55% year over year. The sustained gross-profit profile observed last quarter at 75.09% provides a helpful reference point; while gross margin is not guided for this quarter, investor attention is likely to focus on whether high-70s gross conversion remains intact as revenue scales. Given the nearly flat sequential revenue implied by forecasts versus the previous quarter, performance will likely hinge on stable underlying prescription volume, channel inventory discipline, and mix dynamics that preserve contribution margins.

On the income statement, an EBIT forecast of $67.52 million (up 8.64% year over year) and an adjusted EPS forecast of $0.90 (up 22.09% year over year) together imply disciplined expense stewardship and sustained operating leverage. This combination suggests the company is positioned to translate incremental revenue into earnings without structural cost dislocations, assuming commercialization and administrative costs remain proportionate to revenue. Investors will monitor whether the relationship between gross profit and operating expenses can deliver incremental margin expansion; if selling and administrative expenditures grow slower than gross profit, adjusted EPS could outpace EBIT growth again.

Topline drivers this quarter are expected to remain concentrated in the established product franchise within product sales. The key to upside versus projections will be better-than-expected demand trends, more efficient execution leading to cost containment, and any incremental pricing or favorable payer dynamics that augment revenue per unit. Conversely, any softening in demand, elevated promotional activity, or temporary cost upticks would challenge the forecasted adjusted EPS cadence. The balance of these factors frames a relatively tight range for revenue while giving room for earnings variability depending on expense phasing.

Primary Growth Engine Within the Portfolio

The company’s most promising revenue driver remains its product sales franchise, which posted $239.46 million last quarter with a 28.71% year-over-year increase and is projected to reach $240.29 million in the current period. This revenue base continues to benefit from scale enabling robust gross margin conversion, allowing room for reinvestment in commercial and development activities without materially diluting profitability. With adjusted EPS forecast to grow 22.09% year over year to $0.90, the growth engine appears set to deliver incremental earnings accretion even at a moderated year-over-year revenue growth rate versus the prior quarter.

What bears watching in this growth engine is the blend of volume durability and margin resilience. The recent quarter’s result supports the idea that the franchise can deliver ample gross profit at scale. For this quarter, given a revenue estimate that is only modestly above the prior period, the underlying question is whether the company can maintain the observed profitability cadence while continuing to grow the absolute revenue line. Sustained high-70s gross margins, if repeated, would signal that production and distribution costs are largely controlled and that gross efficiency provides a buffer for operating variability.

From a trajectory standpoint, the growth engine appears to have transitioned from a phase of accelerating revenue expansion to one of scaling profitability with more measured topline increases on a sequential basis. If top-line stability is paired with consistent expense management, EPS expansion could remain robust even without significant sequential revenue growth. This quarter’s results will help clarify whether the base has been reset at a higher level that the business can repeatedly meet or exceed without incremental promotional intensity, and whether the YoY growth profile remains comfortably in the high teens to low twenties consistent with current projections.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Share performance around the print is likely to be most sensitive to three elements: revenue delivery versus the $240.29 million expectation, gross profit margin sustainability relative to the prior quarter’s 75.09%, and adjusted EPS relative to the $0.90 estimate. A narrow revenue beat, if matched by margin stability, would likely translate into a more pronounced EPS outperformance given the company’s current cost structure; conversely, minor revenue shortfalls could be offset if gross margin or expense control surprises positively. The magnitude of any deviation from forecasts will likely dictate the post-earnings trajectory of the shares, as the market weighs durability of growth against quarterly variability.

Guidance and commentary on the cadence of the year will also be important. Investors will be listening for qualitative color on demand consistency, the pacing of operating expenses, and any indications around investment timing that could temporarily influence margins. Given the last quarter’s profitability outcomes and this quarter’s YoY growth expectations, confirmation that gross profit conversion remains robust could bolster confidence in the full-year earnings framework, while any signals of increased cost intensity could shift focus to operating leverage preservation.

Lastly, the translation of demand into cash-generating earnings remains central to the equity story for the near term. Stable or strengthening adjusted EPS, especially if supported by a consistent gross-margin footprint, would reinforce the narrative of operational discipline at scale. On the other hand, even if revenue meets consensus, any unexpected margin compression or expense step-ups could temper the market’s enthusiasm, emphasizing the importance of both top- and bottom-line execution in this quarter’s report.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views currently dominate the visible commentary within the January 1, 2026 to February 17, 2026 window. Notably, on or around early January 2026, Mizuho Securities reiterated a Buy rating with a $46.00 price target on Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc., positioning their stance as favorable heading into the print. Based on the collected items in the specified timeframe, the ratio of bullish to bearish opinions stands at 100% bullish and 0% bearish.

The bullish perspective is grounded in the company’s consistent profitability profile and the alignment between revenue growth and earnings expansion suggested by current-quarter forecasts. An estimated 19.55% year-over-year increase in revenue to $240.29 million, alongside an expected 22.09% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS to $0.90, underpins the view that cash earnings scale with topline growth even as sequential revenue climbs from a high baseline. This balance between growth and margin quality is typically supportive of higher-quality earnings, which can warrant favorable valuation interpretations if sustained over subsequent quarters.

From a risk-reward standpoint into the event, bullish analysts appear comfortable that drivers within the product sales franchise remain intact and that the prior quarter’s gross margin at 75.09% sets a supportive benchmark for profitability. If the company demonstrates that it can maintain a gross-margin profile near recent levels and control operating expenses, the resulting EPS leverage could outpace revenue growth on a percentage basis, matching the forecasted pattern of adjusted EPS rising faster than sales. In that scenario, the investment narrative would lean on predictable demand, resilient pricing and cost management, enabling further capital deployment decisions from a position of financial strength.

The bullish cohort also tends to emphasize that even modest revenue upside can translate into measurable EPS outperformance given the company’s cost base and the scale benefits already observed. With EBIT projected at $67.52 million (up 8.64% year over year), a beat on gross profit or a slight positive variance in operating expenses could magnify incremental earnings. Conversely, while no bearish views were captured in the specified date range, bulls would likely acknowledge that any pullback in gross margin from the prior quarter’s level or a shortfall in revenue relative to the $240.29 million mark could challenge immediate sentiment. However, given the sustained adjusted EPS trajectory implied by forecasts, Mizuho’s maintained Buy and target framework appear predicated on earnings durability.

In sum, the majority view is constructive into the event window. Analysts with favorable ratings appear to anchor their expectations on a combination of double-digit year-over-year revenue growth, consistent gross-profit conversion, and operating discipline that supports adjusted EPS expansion. Should Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. deliver on or slightly above this quarter’s revenue and earnings estimates while reinforcing the stability of its margin structure, the bullish case would likely remain intact, consistent with recent institutional commentary.