Huachuang Securities: Reiterates Investment Opportunities in Express Delivery Industry Amid "Anti-Internal Competition," Maintains Positive Outlook on S.F.Holding (002352.SZ)

Huachuang Securities released a research report highlighting continued optimism about price elasticity realization in the express delivery industry amid reduced internal competition.

In Q3, STO Express (002468.SZ) saw a per-ticket revenue increase of RMB 0.082 quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), with per-ticket gross profit up RMB 0.026, net profit per ticket rising RMB 0.013, and non-GAAP net profit per ticket climbing RMB 0.018. YTO Express (600233.SH) reported a QoQ per-ticket revenue increase of RMB 0.026, net profit per ticket up RMB 0.015, and non-GAAP net profit per ticket rising RMB 0.012. Given regional price adjustments and intense competition in July, August and September showed notable improvements, with Q4 expected to sustain this momentum. The firm maintains a positive outlook on S.F.Holding (002352.SZ).

Key takeaways from Huachuang Securities:

**Volume**: Industry demand remains resilient, with parcel volume growing 17.2% YoY in the first three quarters of 2025. 1) **Jan-Sep 2025**: S.F.Holding led growth at 33.4%, followed by YTO (15.0%), the industry average (13.3%), STO (10.7%), J&T China (10.4%), and Yunda (6.6%). Market share: YTO (15.6%) > Yunda (13.2%) > STO (13.0%) > J&T China (11.1%) > S.F.Holding (8.3%). 2) **Q3 2025**: Parcel volume grew 13.3% YoY, with S.F.Holding again leading at 33.4%. Market share: YTO (15.6%) > STO (13.2%) > Yunda (13.0%) > J&T China (11.3%) > S.F.Holding (8.7%).

**Pricing**: Per-ticket revenue improved QoQ in Jan-Sep 2025. 1) **Industry**: Total express revenue reached RMB 1,085.74 billion (+8.9% YoY), with average ticket revenue at RMB 7.5 (-7.1% YoY). 2) **Company performance**: YTO (RMB 2.18, -4.9% YoY) > STO (RMB 2.02, -2.0%) > Yunda (RMB 1.94, -5.7%); S.F.Holding’s per-ticket revenue was RMB 13.83 (-13.0% YoY). In Q3: YTO (RMB 2.14, -2.4% YoY, +RMB 0.026 QoQ) > STO (RMB 2.05, +2.1% YoY, +RMB 0.082 QoQ) > Yunda (RMB 1.95, -2.1% YoY, +RMB 0.035 QoQ); S.F.Holding (RMB 13.57, -14.4% YoY, +RMB 0.079 QoQ).

**Earnings**: S.F.Holding led industry profits in Jan-Sep 2025. 1) **Net profit**: S.F.Holding (RMB 8.31 billion, +9.1% YoY) > YTO (RMB 2.88 billion, -1.8%) > STO (RMB 760 million, +15.8%) > Yunda (RMB 730 million, -48.2%). Non-GAAP net profit: S.F.Holding (RMB 6.78 billion, +0.5%) > YTO (RMB 2.77 billion, -1.7%) > STO (RMB 760 million, +18.7%) > Yunda (RMB 650 million, -44.1%). 2) **Per-ticket analysis**: Non-GAAP net profit per ticket rose QoQ by ≥RMB 0.01. Jan-Sep: YTO (RMB 0.123) > STO (RMB 0.040) > Yunda (RMB 0.034); Q3: YTO (RMB 0.131) > STO (RMB 0.049) > Yunda (RMB 0.031). YoY, STO’s per-ticket non-GAAP net profit grew the most in Q3 (+RMB 0.015). 3) **Capital expenditure**: YTO and Yunda saw significant YoY growth in Jan-Sep 2025. S.F.Holding (RMB 6.7 billion, -2.6% YoY), YTO (RMB 6.3 billion, +34.1%), Yunda (RMB 1.9 billion, +51.9%), STO (RMB 2.1 billion, -10.5%).

**Risks**: Slower-than-expected e-commerce growth; intensified price competition.

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Huachuang Securities: Reiterates Investment Opportunities in Express Delivery Industry Amid "Anti-Internal Competition," Maintains Positive Outlook on S.F.Holding (002352.SZ)

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