Title
Earning Preview: New Jersey Resources this quarter’s revenue is expected to decrease by 27.08%, and institutional views are bullishAbstract
New Jersey Resources will report quarterly results on February 02, 2026 Post Market; this preview synthesizes last-quarter performance, the current quarter’s revenue and EPS projections, segment dynamics, and prevailing institutional views to frame what investors should watch in the upcoming release.Market Forecast
Based on the latest projections, New Jersey Resources is expected to deliver revenue of USD 546.90 million, adjusted EPS of USD 1.06, and EBIT of USD 161.00 million in the current quarter, implying year-over-year changes of -27.08% for revenue, -0.78% for adjusted EPS, and +20.15% for EBIT. Forecasted gross profit margin and net profit margin were not disclosed; available estimates indicate a winter-weighted earnings pattern with an elevated EBIT profile that offsets softer top-line expectations versus the prior-year period. The main business is expected to be supported by seasonal demand and stable margin execution, with revenue and earnings concentration around regulated distribution and contracted/hedged activities. Clean Energy Projects appears the most promising segment for incremental growth, backed by last-quarter revenue of USD 112.50 million; year-over-year figures were not disclosed for this segment.Last Quarter Review
New Jersey Resources reported last-quarter revenue of USD 336.08 million, a gross profit margin of 28.42%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 15.07 million, a net profit margin of 4.48%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.16; year-over-year changes were -15.09% for revenue and -82.02% for adjusted EPS. One notable highlight was the net profit’s quarter-on-quarter rebound of 200.14%, indicating significant seasonal normalization and improved margin capture relative to the preceding period. The main business portfolio remained diversified, with implied segment contributions based on reported shares: Natural Gas Distribution USD 214.98 million, Energy Services USD 74.84 million, Clean Energy Projects USD 18.57 million, Midstream USD 17.56 million, Home Services and Other USD 10.38 million, and an elimination adjustment of USD -0.24 million; company-wide year-over-year revenue change was -15.09%.Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business: Natural Gas Distribution
Natural Gas Distribution remains the central earnings engine in the seasonally strong winter quarter, reflected by the forecast pattern of higher EBIT and EPS despite a projected year-over-year decline in consolidated revenue. In last quarter’s breakdown, Natural Gas Distribution accounted for the largest share of implied segment revenue at USD 214.98 million based on reported segment proportions, underscoring the importance of volume normalization, rate structures, and operational execution in colder months. The current quarter’s revenue estimate of USD 546.90 million, together with an adjusted EPS estimate of USD 1.06 and EBIT of USD 161.00 million, suggests margin discipline and cost control should offset variability in commodity-related pass-throughs and protect earnings per share.In this quarter’s setup, distribution performance tends to be underpinned by stable frameworks and predictable customer usage profiles during winter, while the pass-through nature of commodity costs can distort the year-over-year revenue comparison. That distortion is visible in the forecast, where revenue is expected to decline by 27.08% even as EBIT is forecast to increase by 20.15% year-over-year. Such a relationship often points to effective procurement and hedging strategies, alignment of operating expenses, and rate mechanisms that support profitability even when the nominal revenue line is dampened by lower commodity prices. Should weather trends align with normal seasonal patterns, the distribution business can leverage throughput and recovery mechanisms to drive the bottom line in accordance with the EPS estimate of USD 1.06.
The key sensitivity for the distribution business this quarter is the interplay between actual demand versus forecast assumptions and how that translates to margin outcomes. Successful execution includes managing working capital, optimizing supply portfolios, and minimizing imbalance penalties or adverse basis movements that could pressure realized margins. With last quarter’s gross profit margin at 28.42% and the net profit margin at 4.48%, investors will be watching whether the company can preserve or improve margin quality on the back of stronger seasonal throughput, recognizing that commodity price movements can obscure the revenue trend without necessarily undermining earnings.
Most Promising Business: Clean Energy Projects
Clean Energy Projects, which registered USD 112.50 million of revenue in the last segment report and USD 18.57 million on an implied quarterly basis from consolidated shares, remains a focal point for incremental growth and multi-year investment returns. While the company did not disclose year-over-year growth for this segment in the last quarter’s breakdown, its contribution signals a growing base that can deliver attractive cash flows through contracted structures and on-peak production benefits that align with seasonal demand. The visibility of contracted revenues and the potential for long-term offtake arrangements can help cushion variability and support earnings stability even as the broader consolidated revenue line experiences year-over-year comparability effects.In the current quarter, Clean Energy Projects can benefit from operational availability and capacity factors that are higher during periods of elevated energy demand. The contribution of this segment often manifests in improved EBIT and EPS outcomes when hedging and contracting strategies are well aligned, corresponding with the company’s forecast of USD 161.00 million in EBIT and USD 1.06 in adjusted EPS. As with other segments, commodity price movements may affect reported revenues, but predictable cash flows from contracted output are conducive to margin stability and can help balance the consolidated revenue trend. This positioning makes the segment a key component of the earnings framework for the quarter, particularly if operating conditions favor higher generation or better realized prices.
Execution risks for Clean Energy Projects include asset availability, timing of maintenance, and synchronization with offtake commitments, all of which influence realized revenue and margins. The segment’s scale and operational cadence are essential to making the most of winter demand conditions and dovetailing with the company’s broader procurement and hedging posture. Investors will likely look for clarity on runtime, production levels, and cash cost discipline as proxies for the segment’s near-term contribution to EBIT growth and EPS resilience, especially in a quarter where consolidated revenue is expected to be lower year-over-year but profitability remains supported.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The stock’s performance around this print is likely to be driven by how reported margins reconcile with the guidance-like forecast metrics: revenue of USD 546.90 million (-27.08% year-over-year), adjusted EPS of USD 1.06 (-0.78% year-over-year), and EBIT of USD 161.00 million (+20.15% year-over-year). A key focus will be whether management demonstrates strong cost control and effective hedging that translate into margin preservation or expansion, particularly given the last quarter’s net profit margin of 4.48% and gross margin of 28.42%. If management confirms that the revenue decline is primarily linked to commodity price pass-through mechanics rather than core earnings stress, the market could look past the top-line compression and focus on EPS and EBIT quality.Another driver will be the clarity around segment contributions, including how Natural Gas Distribution and Clean Energy Projects balance each other in margin delivery. Investors may parse segment commentary for signs of sustainable cash-flow trends and predictability in contracted operations, paying attention to how last quarter’s net profit increased by 200.14% quarter-on-quarter, suggesting momentum into the winter season. Confirmation of similar seasonal effects, along with a coherent narrative explaining the revenue-EPS divergence, can bolster investor confidence and support valuation around regulated and contracted cash flows.
Finally, guidance color or qualitative commentary about the remainder of the fiscal year could influence the stock’s near-term trajectory. Even without explicit numeric guidance for gross and net margins in the forecast dataset, management’s commentary on operational execution, procurement strategy, and cost discipline will be closely watched. If the company’s narrative aligns with the forecasted EPS and EBIT resilience, the market may weigh earnings quality over headline revenue comparisons, thereby shaping the post-release reaction. In contrast, any unexpected costs or operational disruptions could temper sentiment, underscoring the importance of delivering on the forecast’s profitability signals.
Analyst Opinions
Bullish views appear to dominate the limited set of recent institutional commentary gathered within the review period. The ratio of bullish to bearish opinions stands at 100.00% bullish, with Raymond James reiterating a Buy rating and a price target of USD 53.00. This stance underscores confidence in the company’s capacity to deliver on profitability metrics—particularly EPS and EBIT—in a quarter where headline revenue is expected to decline by 27.08% year-over-year to USD 546.90 million.The bullish case centers on a pattern in which earnings demonstrate resilience even when consolidated revenue is pressured by commodity price pass-through dynamics. Raymond James’s maintained Buy rating indicates an expectation that operational execution—through procurement, hedging, and cost control—will sustain margins and underpin the adjusted EPS estimate of USD 1.06. That estimate, paired with a forecast EBIT of USD 161.00 million (+20.15% year-over-year), offers a coherent thesis: focusing on profitability rather than top-line headline comparisons can be the appropriate lens for this quarter’s evaluation. The last quarter’s net profit of USD 15.07 million and net profit margin of 4.48% further reinforce the importance of margin management in sustaining shareholder returns, even as year-over-year revenue comparability remains challenging.
This majority view also looks to the distribution backbone in the winter quarter and the contribution of Clean Energy Projects as stabilizers in the earnings profile. The implied last-quarter segment breakdown highlights the centrality of Natural Gas Distribution, and optimism seems to pivot on the company’s ability to match seasonal throughput with disciplined cost and procurement strategies. Analysts highlighting the Buy case often emphasize the alignment between operational levers and forecasted outcomes—namely the resilience of EPS at USD 1.06 despite a revenue headwind—and see this as evidence of effective management of the controllable aspects of the business. While gross margin and net margin forecasts were not provided in the dataset, the EBIT trajectory and last quarter’s margin indicators offer a framework suggesting that profit quality can remain intact.
A deeper layer of this bullish sentiment is the expectation that variability in reported revenue is less indicative of earnings risk than it might appear, given pass-through mechanics that can reverse year-over-year comparisons without materially affecting margin capture. If the reported results on February 02, 2026 Post Market confirm that the revenue decline masks stable or improving profitability, the majority view anticipates that investors will reset their focus on earnings quality and forward cash-flow generation rather than the headline revenue print. In this reading, strong execution in Natural Gas Distribution, sustained contribution from Clean Energy Projects, and clear communication on cost discipline and procurement efficacy would validate the Buy thesis put forth by institutions such as Raymond James. The overarching narrative in the majority camp is that earnings resilience, not reported revenue elasticity, will be the key determinant of near-term valuation dynamics for New Jersey Resources.