China is set to release its January Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data. January financial data, including new loans, M1, M2, and total social financing, is also expected to be announced. Additionally, Hang Seng Indexes will disclose the results of its fourth-quarter 2025 review.
The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the January CPI and PPI figures on February 11. Caitong Securities forecasts a year-on-year CPI increase of 0.4% for January. While pork prices saw a slight rise and fruit prices increased, with gold prices surging significantly, vegetable prices declined. Despite these factors, the high base effect from the previous year is expected to lead to a slight decrease in the CPI growth rate to 0.4%.
Regarding PPI, Caitong Securities anticipates a year-on-year decline of 1.5% for January. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) sub-index for ex-factory prices rose by 1.7 percentage points to 50.6%, while the sub-index for major raw material purchase prices increased by 3 percentage points to 56.1%.
January's key financial data, including new yuan loans, M1, M2, and total social financing, is likely to be published next week. Zheshang Securities projects new yuan loans of 5 trillion yuan for January, a decrease of approximately 130 billion yuan compared to the same period last year. This corresponds to a loan growth rate that is 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month, settling at 6.2%. Total social financing is expected to increase by 6.9 trillion yuan, about 98 billion yuan less than the previous year, with its growth rate also dropping by 0.2 percentage points to 8.1%. The M2 money supply growth rate is forecast to hold steady at 8.5%, matching the previous month's rate. Meanwhile, the M1 growth rate is projected to be 2.2%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous reading of 3.8%.
Hang Seng Indexes Company announced that it will release the results of the fourth-quarter 2025 review for the Hang Seng Index Series on Friday, February 13, 2026. Any changes to the index constituents will take effect on Monday, March 9, 2026.
The United States is also scheduled to release key economic data, including the January unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, and CPI figures. The combined reading of the CPI and non-farm payrolls data will provide indications for the Federal Reserve's next policy moves. Significant revisions to policy expectations could trigger adjustments in the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and global risk assets.
Data from Wind shows that next week, from February 9 to February 13, a total of 33 stocks will see their lock-up periods expire. Based on the latest closing prices, the total market value of these shares set to become tradable exceeds 360 billion yuan. February 9 is the peak day for expirations, with 12 companies accounting for a combined market value of 307.41 billion yuan, representing 84.71% of the total value for the week. As of the February 6 closing price, the top three companies by unlocked market value are: Hunan Yuneng (240.96 billion yuan), Gansu Energy and Chemical Industry (40.08 billion yuan), and Mailande (27.44 billion yuan). In terms of the number of shares being unlocked, the top three are: Gansu Energy and Chemical Industry (1.623 billion shares), Hunan Yuneng (374 million shares), and Qingsong Jianhua (226 million shares).
Regarding new share offerings, Wind data indicates that one new stock will be launched next week. Tongbao Optoelectronics will open for subscription on February 9.