Abstract

Kinross Gold Corporation will report quarterly results on February 18, 2026, Post Market, with investor attention centered on a projected acceleration in revenue and earnings as consensus models anticipate top-line growth and margin resilience into the print.

Market Forecast

Consensus modeling for the upcoming quarter points to revenue of $2.01 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.56, implying year-over-year growth of 37.37% and 124.32%, respectively, while EBIT is projected at $1.01 billion, up 63.12% year over year. Within the portfolio, operating continuity at key assets underpins those expectations, with realized price tailwinds late in the period providing an incremental boost to revenue leverage.

The operating base remains anchored by the largest contributions from Paracatu in Brazil, Fort Knox in Alaska, and the Mauritania complex, which collectively represented 73.70% of last quarter’s consolidated revenue, supporting stable volumes into the current quarter. Among segments, the Mauritania complex generated $403.00 million last quarter and is positioned as a core growth lever in investor models given recent project approvals and sensitivity to gold prices; explicit segment-level year-over-year growth was not disclosed in the dataset, but its absolute scale and strategic capital allocation signal a favorable near-term trajectory.

Last Quarter Review

In the preceding quarter, Kinross Gold Corporation delivered revenue of $1.80 billion (up 25.85% year over year), a gross profit margin of 66.78%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of $585.00 million, a net profit margin of 32.46%, and adjusted EPS of $0.44 (up 83.33% year over year).

A notable financial highlight was a clear top-line and bottom-line beat versus the prior quarter’s internal/consensus benchmarks: revenue exceeded the prior estimate by $138.00 million and adjusted EPS surpassed forecasts by approximately $0.08 per share. On the business side, the company’s mix remained concentrated in its largest mines—Paracatu at $516.30 million (28.65% of revenue), Fort Knox at $408.90 million (22.69%), and the Mauritania complex at $403.00 million (22.36%)—with La Coipa contributing $200.60 million, Bald Mountain $143.80 million, and Round Mountain $129.50 million, a diversified base that delivered the quarter’s performance; segment-level year-over-year deltas were not enumerated in the tool output.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core operating run-rate and realized pricing

The key near-term driver for Kinross Gold Corporation’s reported performance is the interplay between stable mine run-rates and realized gold prices across the quarter. The late-January spike in spot prices, which reached new highs during the six-month window under review, strengthens the revenue outlook for unhedged or lightly hedged sales volumes that closed near period end. Combined with the $2.01 billion revenue expectation and $1.01 billion EBIT estimate, the backdrop suggests stronger operating leverage against fixed costs compared with the same period last year, reinforcing the pathway to the 124.32% year-over-year increase embedded in the adjusted EPS projection.

Operationally, the three largest assets—Paracatu, Fort Knox, and the Mauritania complex—provided 73.70% of last quarter’s revenue base and shape the upcoming print. Investors will gauge throughput continuity, grades, and recovery rates across these sites to contextualize revenue quality, recognizing that the preceding quarter supported robust profitability (66.78% gross margin and 32.46% net margin). While no explicit margin guidance is embedded in the dataset, the mix tilt toward large-scale operations and the realized price uplift imply that, absent adverse unit-cost variance, margins have room to hold firm or expand relative to last year’s comparable period.

The soft-landing scenario therefore rests on consistent ore delivery and milling uptime, with an overlay from price realizations into quarter end. Variability typically arises from geological sequencing and planned maintenance windows; however, last quarter’s beats versus internal/consensus figures—$138.00 million on revenue and $0.08 on adjusted EPS—underscore an execution cadence that provides a constructive baseline heading into this print. The net result is a forecast path for revenue up 37.37% year over year and EBIT up 63.12%, which together frame the anticipated torque in adjusted EPS.

Mauritania complex as the growth lever

The Mauritania complex contributed $403.00 million last quarter and remains central to the near-term growth narrative in models. The site’s scale and operating momentum, coupled with an environment of higher spot prices in late January, make it a high-sensitivity driver for consolidated revenue and earnings. Analyst commentary this quarter emphasizes that the company has greenlit three mining projects, a signal that capital allocation is targeting throughput stability and incremental growth; while specific quarterly volume steps are not detailed in the dataset, the investment vector itself suggests an intent to lift medium-term production capacity and resilience.

In practical terms, investor focus will likely coalesce around commentary on sequencing, ore grades, and processing uptime in Mauritania for the reported quarter and forward periods. Those metrics are critical in converting favorable prices into incremental gross profit dollars, especially when aligned with reliable plant utilization. Given its $403.00 million contribution last quarter and the company’s project approvals in January, the Mauritania complex stands out as a primary source of upside potential should realized grades and recovery meet or exceed plan while gold prices hold near elevated levels.

The degree of outperformance will hinge on execution details that management may disclose alongside results, including any updates to capital timing, operating windows, or incremental debottlenecking plans. If communicated in line with external expectations, the segment’s dynamics can magnify consolidated outcomes beyond the modeled $2.01 billion revenue and $0.56 EPS path. Conversely, any deviation in sequencing or temporary downtime could moderate the upside without negating the broadly improved revenue base implied by higher realized pricing.

Stock-price swing factors this quarter

Three near-term factors have the highest potential to move Kinross Gold Corporation’s shares around the release. The first is realized pricing versus the internal planning deck and external spot curves during the quarter, particularly because late-period spot strength can disproportionately influence reported averages when volumes close near the highs. The second is operating performance at the top contributors—Paracatu, Fort Knox, and Mauritania—where throughput stability, grade variance, and recovery rates ultimately determine whether the company converts the pricing tailwind into revenue and margin outperformance relative to last year.

The third factor is project execution cadence and capital allocation disclosure. Analyst attention has sharpened around the company’s decision to proceed with three mining projects; clarity on timelines, spend phasing, and expected production contributions will shape medium-term estimates and influence how investors discount near-term cash generation. If management pairs a solid quarter with credible execution milestones and sustained shareholder returns, the earnings elasticity implied by the 63.12% year-over-year EBIT growth forecast can translate into further positive estimate revisions.

Currency and cost dynamics represent an additional lens through which the market will interpret results. For example, operations like Paracatu incur a portion of costs in local currency; moves in those currencies relative to the US dollar can influence unit costs and margin translation. While the prior quarter’s 66.78% gross margin and 32.46% net margin establish a strong profitability baseline, the magnitude of margin movement this quarter will depend on both site-level cost performance and realized price arithmetic. Against that backdrop, consensus expectations—revenue at $2.01 billion and adjusted EPS at $0.56—imply that the market is factoring in a constructive mix of price, volume, and cost control.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing tone from recent institutional commentary is bullish, with a clear majority of positive views over neutral stances in the January–February window. UBS maintained a Buy rating and raised its price target to $43.00 at the end of January, citing improving earnings power and supportive metals pricing into the new year. Stifel Canada reaffirmed its Buy rating in mid-January with a C$45.00 target, highlighting the company’s decision to proceed with three mining projects as a forward growth catalyst. In contrast, RBC Capital Markets maintained a Sector Perform rating on February 3 while raising its target to $36.00 from $33.00, signaling a balanced risk-reward view into the print rather than an outright bearish stance.

Taking these together, the ratio of bullish to neutral views stands at roughly 2:1 across the window, indicating that two-thirds of referenced institutional opinions are constructive. The bullish camp anchors its case on three pillars that align closely with the quarter’s modeling setup. First, top-line torque is expected from elevated realized gold prices during the closing weeks of the period, which enhances revenue leverage at steady run-rates. Second, the approval of three mining projects is interpreted as a credible pathway for incremental volumes and medium-term EBITDA expansion, supporting higher price targets even before those contributions are fully reflected in quarterly numbers. Third, the company’s preceding quarter beat versus internal/consensus benchmarks—$138.00 million on revenue and a roughly $0.08 per-share upside on adjusted EPS—reinforces execution momentum heading into February 18, 2026.

UBS’s higher target captures this combination of cyclical price support and project-driven optionality. Its Buy rating hinges on the premise that the company can translate stronger spot pricing and operational stability at key mines into a step-up in cash generation that accelerates EPS growth beyond last year’s level—consistent with the 124.32% year-over-year increase embedded in the current quarter’s EPS estimate of $0.56. Stifel’s Buy stance, with emphasis on the go-ahead for three projects, suggests that investors should watch for management’s commentary on capital phasing and early production milestones; clarity here can tighten the dispersion of out-year estimates and potentially lift valuation multiples if the pathway to sustained growth is reaffirmed.

RBC’s Sector Perform rating, while neutral, acknowledges positive momentum with a higher target of $36.00, signaling recognition of the improved operating and pricing environment even if upside is seen as more balanced against execution variables. Importantly, none of the cited institutions within the review window advocated a negative stance, which helps explain why the majority view is tilted toward optimism. The aggregate read-through is that the market is bracing for a favorable revenue and earnings setup, with the key swing variables centered on realized prices, mine-level performance at Paracatu, Fort Knox, and Mauritania, and the detail embedded in project execution updates.

Bringing this together with the numerical framework, the analyst majority effectively endorses a model where revenue of $2.01 billion (+37.37% year over year) and EBIT of $1.01 billion (+63.12%) can convert into adjusted EPS around $0.56 (+124.32%). In practice, the degree of share-price response will hinge on whether the reported gross and net profitability sits comfortably above last year’s comparable period and how management frames the production and capital outlook for 2026. Should realized pricing and throughput align with the favorable late-January environment and operational cadence observed last quarter, the bull case articulated by UBS and Stifel has a clear pathway to validation. Conversely, if project cadence updates are deferred or if site-level grades and recoveries soften versus plan, upside may be moderated but not necessarily negated, given the revenue base implied by current price decks.

In summary, the institutional majority anticipates a quarter that showcases stronger revenue throughput, significantly higher adjusted EPS versus last year, and meaningful progress on a project slate intended to add durability to the growth profile. That view aligns with the latest forecast markers embedded in the $2.01 billion revenue and $0.56 EPS estimates, and it frames February 18, 2026, Post Market, as a checkpoint where the interplay of realized pricing, operating execution, and capital deployment commentary will determine whether the stock extends its constructive rerating. The balance of opinion remains skewed toward the bullish side of that ledger, backed by upward price target revisions and an emphasis on near-term earnings torque and medium-term capacity gains.