Abstract

Cadre Holdings, Inc. will report quarterly results on May 11, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes consensus forecasts on revenue, EBIT and EPS, reviews last quarter’s performance, and highlights key business drivers and risks to watch.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, consensus points to revenue of 156.66 million US dollars, up 28.32% year over year; EBIT of 10.59 million US dollars, up 17.51% year over year; and EPS of 0.10, down 18.33% year over year. There is no explicit outlook for gross profit margin or net margin; last quarter’s gross margin stood at 43.71%, which serves as a reference point, but the company has not guided margins for the current quarter in the available datasets. The main business mix remains concentrated in Products and Distribution, with a focus on execution and price/mix to defend gross margin after a softer fourth quarter; management’s near-term actions center on operating discipline and portfolio moves that can stabilize profitability and support top-line growth. The most promising segment near term appears to be Products, supported by portfolio breadth and planned additions; Products generated 543.71 million US dollars on a trailing basis while Distribution delivered 104.90 million US dollars, and a formal year-over-year comparison by segment was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

In the quarter ended December 31, 2025, Cadre Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of 167.22 million US dollars (down 4.98% year over year), a gross profit margin of 43.71%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 11.74 million US dollars with a net profit margin of 7.02%, and adjusted EPS of 0.27 (down 15.63% year over year). A notable highlight was the undershoot versus consensus: revenue missed by 15.72 million US dollars and EPS missed by 0.13, while GAAP net profit increased 7.29% sequentially, indicating quarter-on-quarter improvement despite year-on-year pressure. By business line, Products produced 543.71 million US dollars and Distribution 104.90 million US dollars on a trailing basis; at the consolidated level, revenue in the quarter declined 4.98% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Products and Distribution

Consensus forecasts anticipate a year-over-year rebound in the top line this quarter to 156.66 million US dollars, an increase of 28.32%, with EBIT of 10.59 million US dollars, up 17.51% year over year. The model-implied EPS of 0.10 reflects an 18.33% year-over-year decline, suggesting that while growth is expected to reaccelerate, operating deleverage and a normalized expense base may limit the flow-through to per-share earnings in the short term. After last quarter’s gross margin of 43.71% and net margin of 7.02%, investors will likely watch whether improved volume and mix can offset residual cost headwinds and any transient integration or restructuring costs. The business mix remains weighted to Products and Distribution, and the company’s portfolio actions indicate emphasis on core categories that historically sustain margin resilience through pricing, specification wins, and targeted SKU refreshes. Trailing revenue contributions of 543.71 million US dollars from Products and 104.90 million US dollars from Distribution point to ample scale in the core engine, which should benefit from back-to-business seasonality following a holiday quarter. With last quarter’s revenue shortfall versus consensus and a year-over-year decline, the bar for delivery this quarter is more balanced; execution on order conversion, shipment timing, and cost controls will be the primary determinants of whether the anticipated EBIT growth materializes. Management articulated full-year 2026 guidance ranges earlier this year for revenue of 736.00–758.00 million US dollars and adjusted EBITDA of 136.00–141.00 million US dollars. That framework implies a second-half skew or sequential build relative to the current-quarter consensus revenue of 156.66 million US dollars, making quarter-to-quarter cadence a relevant focus for investors who are assessing the timing of volume recovery and gross margin stability. Given the sequential improvement in GAAP net profit last quarter, confirmation of sustained margin discipline and stable operating expense growth would underpin the turnaround from the fourth quarter’s miss toward the full-year targets.

Most Promising Business: Products with expanding consumer holsters adjacencies

Portfolio expansion in holsters and accessories is positioned to complement the Products base and support incremental revenue capture across retail and institutional channels. The announced agreement to acquire Alien Gear Holsters and certain assets for 10.30 million US dollars through a court-supervised bankruptcy process targets proprietary holsters and gear and is expected to close in the second quarter, subject to approvals. While the timing places the bulk of potential contribution beyond the current quarter, the adjacencies within Products can enhance brand coverage, broaden distribution touchpoints, and provide cross-selling opportunities that lift utilization and scale efficiencies over the medium term. On a trailing basis, Products accounted for 543.71 million US dollars of revenue, underscoring the foundation from which these adjacencies can be layered. Since a formal year-over-year split by segment for the last quarter is not available, investors will be guided by consolidated forecasts that call for a 28.32% year-over-year increase in total revenue this quarter and by management’s full-year revenue outlook of 736.00–758.00 million US dollars. Near term, integration planning and onboarding of the acquired portfolio will be critical to preserving current gross margin performance while preparing the channel for incremental volume and product refreshes that can lift ASPs and mix. Operating implications for this quarter include modest nonrecurring costs linked to transaction and transition activities, which can temporarily weigh on EPS even if EBIT tracks the 17.51% forecasted year-over-year increase. Over subsequent quarters, broader shelf presence, refined merchandising, and streamlined sourcing could reduce unit costs and improve contribution margins, supporting an eventual convergence between EPS growth and revenue growth. Progress updates on the acquisition’s close and early commercial milestones would provide helpful context to gauge the timing and magnitude of contribution.

Key Stock-Price Drivers This Quarter

Earnings sensitivity to gross margin and SG&A cadence is central: with consensus EPS at 0.10 (down 18.33% year over year) despite a 28.32% revenue increase, the market is implicitly bracing for a lag in operating leverage. Signs that price/mix, sourcing, and logistics are normalizing could enable better drop-through than feared and help reconcile the top-line acceleration with EPS trends. Conversely, if mix tilts toward lower-margin categories or if integration and commercialization costs arrive earlier than revenue synergies, the gap between revenue growth and EPS could persist near term. Order timing and shipment conversion will be another swing factor. The prior quarter’s revenue miss of 15.72 million US dollars suggests that cadence and phasing of deliveries mattered to the print; if the conversion profile shifts into the current quarter as models indicate, cadence could normalize toward the company’s full-year revenue guidance. Execution updates on backlog conversion, channel inventory, and replenishment pacing will help investors refine expectations for both second-quarter slope and full-year exit velocity. Capital allocation and shareholder returns also intersect with sentiment near term. On April 22, 2026, the company maintained its quarterly dividend at 0.10 US dollars per share, payable on May 15, 2026 to shareholders of record as of May 1, 2026. A steady dividend alongside elevated investment in portfolio expansion signals confidence in cash generation, but it also heightens investor scrutiny on working-capital discipline and cash conversion, especially against a prior-quarter earnings miss. Demonstrated progress against the full-year 2026 outlook—particularly on revenue of 736.00–758.00 million US dollars and adjusted EBITDA of 136.00–141.00 million US dollars—would reinforce the credibility of near-term execution and could reduce forecast dispersion.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of identifiable opinions in the recent period is bearish. A well-known analyst at a major investment bank maintained a Sell rating on Cadre Holdings, Inc., signaling caution following the fourth-quarter miss and ahead of a quarter in which EPS is projected to decline 18.33% year over year despite a 28.32% increase in revenue. In this context, the bearish side emphasizes the near-term disconnect between top-line momentum and per-share earnings, and it highlights the risk that integration costs, mix, or operating expense normalization could cap margin upside in the next print. This stance also points to the fourth quarter’s revenue undershoot of 15.72 million US dollars and EPS shortfall of 0.13 as evidence that execution risk remains a consideration in forecasting quarterly cadence. The net profit margin of 7.02% last quarter and gross margin of 43.71% are seen as resilient but not immune to short-term pressures from product mix and transaction-related costs. While consensus expects EBIT to rise 17.51% year over year to 10.59 million US dollars, the Sell view implies skepticism that this improvement will translate proportionally to EPS given the modeled decline to 0.10. The recent decision to maintain the 0.10 US dollars per-share dividend is, in bearish framing, neutral to slightly positive for shareholder returns but not a sufficient catalyst to re-rate near-term earnings risk. The pending acquisition of Alien Gear Holsters, though strategically additive to the Products portfolio, is more likely to be a second-half and 2027 story rather than a current-quarter driver; this timing component supports a conservative stance in front of May 11, 2026 results. Overall, within the analyst community signals captured over the last six months, the identifiable opinions skew toward caution, with the majority view aligning to a bearish setup predicated on near-term EPS compression, execution proof points still to be demonstrated, and a preference to see evidence of margin stabilization before revising outlooks higher.