Macquarie Group has lowered its oil price forecasts, stating that the market will face a "severe supply surplus" due to continued expansion in oil production, with prices expected to fall to the $50 per barrel range in the coming quarters.

Analysts, including Marcus Garvey, noted in a quarterly outlook report covering various commodities: "We remain fundamentally bearish on the energy sector."

They believe that considering crude oil supply growth from OPEC+ and oil producers outside the alliance, "as a baseline expectation, the market will fall into a severe supply surplus situation from the end of this year through the first quarter of next year."

Global crude benchmark Brent oil prices have fallen approximately 11% year-to-date, with September marking the second consecutive monthly decline. This reflects OPEC+'s significant loosening of supply restrictions as the alliance seeks to regain market share.

The alliance is scheduled to meet this weekend to finalize production levels for November. On Tuesday, a representative revealed that member countries would discuss an "accelerated production increase" plan, involving monthly increases of approximately 500,000 barrels per day over three months; however, OPEC subsequently stated that no such plans currently exist.

The analysts stated: "Saudi Arabia currently shows no signs of slowing production increases. If this trend does not reverse, we expect the market to enter a state of 'prolonged downturn.' Ultimately, we believe restoring market balance will require multiple factors working together: oil price declines (slowing non-OPEC producer supply), supply disruptions, OPEC policy adjustments, and time (allowing demand growth to gradually absorb excess supply)."

Regarding specific forecasts, analysts said the U.S. benchmark WTI crude is expected to average $57 per barrel next year, down from the previous forecast of $60 per barrel. Brent crude, currently around $66 per barrel, is expected to average $57 per barrel in the first quarter of next year and $59 per barrel in the second quarter.

Charts in the report also show Macquarie predicting global crude oil supply surplus will reach 4.63 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, with excess amounts gradually decreasing in the following three quarters while maintaining surplus conditions.

Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that global crude oil production in 2026 will exceed consumption by an average of 3.33 million barrels per day, representing a historic annual supply surplus.