Abstract

Sylvamo will report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 12, 2026, Pre-Market; this preview consolidates the latest quarterly data and forecasts, focusing on revenue, margins, EPS, and segment dynamics.

Market Forecast

Consensus and company projections point to fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $0.86 billion, an adjusted EPS of $1.07, and EBIT of $0.07 billion; the year-over-year forecasts imply revenue down 11.05%, EPS down 39.89%, and EBIT down 38.06%, with margin pressure likely versus last year. The main business is expected to remain led by Uncoated Paper with resilient pricing and targeted mix improvements, while Market Pulp should be smaller and more cyclical in contribution. The most promising segment remains Uncoated Paper, projected to anchor approximately $0.86 billion with a year-over-year decline of 11.05% as volumes normalize and price/mix offsets partially cushion weaker demand.

Last Quarter Review

Sylvamo’s third-quarter 2025 results showed revenue of $0.85 billion, a gross profit margin of 26.24%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.06 billion, a net profit margin of 6.74%, and adjusted EPS of $1.44, with revenue down 12.33% year over year and adjusted EPS down 40.98% year over year. A notable highlight was the quarter-on-quarter net profit rebound of 280.00%, reflecting improved operating execution amid a moderating cost environment. Main business highlights: Uncoated Paper generated $0.79 billion and Market Pulp contributed $0.06 billion, with Uncoated Paper remaining the dominant revenue driver despite a soft demand backdrop.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Uncoated Paper

Uncoated Paper continues to be the core revenue engine for Sylvamo, accounting for the vast majority of the company’s sales in the prior quarter. The current quarter’s outlook suggests a measured slowdown in year-over-year terms, tied to persistent demand moderation in key end markets and periodic customer inventory rationalization. Pricing discipline and product mix optimization are expected to support gross margin resiliency, though the gap versus the prior year remains under pressure according to the forecasted declines in EPS and EBIT. Operational efficiency initiatives and tighter procurement in fibers and energy have been helping maintain the mid-20% gross margin area, but a softer volume backdrop may limit incremental margin expansion. Management’s focus on higher-value grades, service reliability, and targeted capacity utilization should keep segment contribution stable within the quarter despite the drag from cyclical demand.

Most Promising Business: Operationally Focused Uncoated Paper Sub-Mix

Within Uncoated Paper, the more value-added and regionally advantaged product sub-mix offers the most attractive potential this quarter. Customer mix shifts toward contract-backed volumes and stable commercial print demand could provide sequential support even as year-over-year comparisons remain challenging. The segment’s performance will likely hinge on disciplined pricing and the company’s ability to mitigate cost fluctuations in pulp, chemicals, and logistics. The revenue trajectory is expected to approximate the consolidated forecast of $0.86 billion, with the segment absorbing most of the top-line and margin variability; year-over-year normalization implies an approximate 11.05% decline against a robust prior-year baseline. If operating rates stay balanced and the mix leans toward higher-margin grades, Uncoated Paper can sustain a gross margin composition consistent with mid-20% levels, cushioning EBIT and EPS. The path to upside pivots on order stability into late-quarter and the duration of cost tailwinds.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Earnings power sensitivity to price/mix and volumes in Uncoated Paper is the primary determinant of share reaction on the print. Investors will focus on whether gross margin can hold near the 26.24% benchmark from the last quarter amid forecasted year-over-year headwinds to EBIT and EPS. Any commentary on sequential demand trends, especially relating to North America and Latin America contract renewals, could sway sentiment; signs of stable backlog and pricing durability would be constructive. Cost dynamics are another lever: if input costs in pulp and energy remain benign, the company can defend margins even as volume softness persists. Lastly, the contribution from Market Pulp, though modest, can introduce volatility due to its sensitivity to spot pricing; even small moves can shift reported margins given the segment’s lower base. Management’s guidance cadence and visibility into the first half of 2026 will likely be a swing factor for how investors extrapolate current-quarter results into the forward EPS trajectory.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing institutional stance over the past six months is cautiously optimistic, with a majority leaning constructive on margin resilience and disciplined capital allocation despite top-line normalization. Analysts highlight that last quarter’s 280.00% quarter-on-quarter rebound in GAAP net profit and the 26.24% gross margin provide a foundation for stable profitability even as year-over-year metrics decline, and they expect adjusted EPS around $1.07 to align with conservative expectations. Commentary emphasizes pricing discipline in Uncoated Paper and a focused approach to operating efficiency as key supports, while acknowledging that revenue is forecast to be $0.86 billion, down 11.05% year over year. Some institutional previews note that consistent execution, steady mix improvements, and careful cost management should keep sentiment on balance positive going into the Pre-Market release on February 12, 2026. The constructive view also underscores limited reliance on Market Pulp, which helps dampen cyclical volatility in consolidated results. Overall, the majority expects a measured quarter with defensible margins, an adjusted EPS in line with forecasts, and guidance that frames a gradual recovery path as demand and pricing stabilize into the first half of 2026.